State of Play hosts Joe Pignataro and Gemma Bastiani preview the big topics ahead of this weekend's VFL and VFLW action.

Will the VFLW finals race be set by Sunday night?
Williamstown, Collingwood and North Melbourne Werribee have broken away from the rest of the VFLW pack and are on track to all make finals once again. Should the Western Bulldogs beat Essendon on Friday, Carlton defeat Box Hill on Saturday, and Port Melbourne win over Sandringham on Sunday, the gap from the sixth-placed side to seventh will be eight points with six games to go. If things follow this suit the jostling of positions will be a fascinating watch with a new look finals format in the VFLW in 2026. 

Do the Cats need a loss before finals?
Geelong is sitting pretty on top of the VFL ladder heading into the final third of the home and away season. The Cats are 10 points ahead of next best Werribee and with Richmond (21st), St Kilda (12th), Casey Demons (17th), Collingwood (18th) and North Melbourne (11th) left to play in their five remaining regular-season games. But come finals, things go up a notch, and a new challenge arises. Does the old adage come into play to prime them for a tilt at the flag, or are the Cats solid enough to adapt without that home and away challenge on the way to September?

Frosty-Miller Medal race is heating up
Just six rounds remain in the home and away season, begging the question: who will finish on top of the leaderboard for the Frosty Miller Medal as the VFL leading goal kicker? Two-time winner Brodie McLaughlin currently leads the way with 36 goals from his 12 matches in his first season with Box Hill, but the chasing pack is right on his tail. All of Mitch Podhasjki, Brady Wright, and Corey Ellison have booted 35 majors and are in strong form. It was at this point of the season last year that McLaughlin blew the field away with bags of seven, five, five and four to finish with 67 majors for the season. So, will he do it again to become a three-time winner of this prestigious award?

Battle for top seed
Despite Williamstown having dropped a game, byes for both Collingwood and North Melbourne Werribee in the early rounds mean the Seagulls are sitting atop the VFLW ladder, thanks to a strong percentage and impressive recent form. The Pies have stumbled – but not fallen – in recent weeks, and given the Roos allow opposition teams to score a little, their percentage isn't quite as high despite being a dominant team. So, when Collingwood and North Melbourne do battle on Sunday in a rematch of the epic 2025 grand final, it will shape what that top two looks like. And halfway through the season, that gap at the pointy end of the ladder will be like gold.

Can the Scray make a late finals run?
Could the unlikely happen? Reigning VFL premier Footscray’s victory against Williamstown last weekend keeps them in contention for a spot in the wildcard bracket. Saturday’s 41-point win was their most convincing performance since they knocked off ladder-leader Geelong back in Round 4. With winnable games coming up against Richmond and Gold Coast, and a favourable draw against sides around them on the ladder (Frankston, Carlton, and North Melbourne) there’s no reason the reigning premiers can’t dare to dream about an unlikely surge towards September.

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