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The run home: Can the Swans produce a miracle?

The 10: round 14's best moments Watch the best highlights from the action across the weekend
1. Geelong

44 points (11 wins, two losses), 146.0 per cent
While the Cats will be annoyed to have continue their streak of losses straight after the bye to eight, they're still sitting pretty, one game clear on top of the ladder. There's no reason they should lose that spot. Just three of their remaining games are against teams in the top eight and their percentage is easily the best in the League. Furthermore, while they have been terrible in recent times after having a week off, they're 7-0 two weeks after the bye, according to stats guru @sirswampthing on Twitter. That's a bad omen for the Crows.

The run home
R15: Adelaide @ GMHBA Stadium
R16: Western Bulldogs @ Marvel Stadium
R17: St Kilda @ GMHBA Stadium
R18: Hawthorn @ MCG
R19: Sydney @ SCG
R20: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium
R21: North Melbourne @ GMHBA Stadium
R22: Brisbane @ Gabba
R23: Carlton @ GMHBA Stadium

2. Collingwood

40 points (10 wins, three losses), 126.3 per cent 
Being without electric forward Jaidyn Stephenson for the rest of the home and away campaign after his betting-related suspension will present issues but his side is still stacked with talent, so should expect to lock the double chance up. Five games at the MCG, with none of those sides in the top eight, should help their odds. Trips to face West Coast, Greater Western Sydney and Adelaide loom as seriously difficult challenges though.

The run home
R15: North Melbourne @ Marvel Stadium
R16: Hawthorn @ MCG
R17: West Coast @ Optus Stadium
R18: Greater Western Sydney @ GIANTS Stadium
R19: Richmond @ MCG
R20: Gold Coast @ MCG
R21: Melbourne @ MCG
R22: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
R23: Essendon @ MCG

THINGS WE LEARNED The player Freo can't afford to lose

3. Greater Western Sydney

36 points (nine wins, four losses), 132.9 per cent
The double chance should be all but assured. Five remaining matches at home (including one in Canberra) plus cellar dweller Gold Coast to finish the season. If the Giants are going to stumble, it will probably happen in the month after meeting Essendon on Thursday. There are three top-eight teams in that time, with the other game being against Richmond, at the MCG. Overcome that and they have a cushy end to the home and away campaign.

The run home
R15: Essendon @ Marvel Stadium
R16: Brisbane @ Giants Stadium
R17: Richmond @ MCG
R18: Collingwood @ Giants Stadium
R19: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
R20: Sydney @ Giants Stadium
R21: Hawthorn @ UNSW Canberra Oval
R22: Western Bulldogs @ Giants Stadium
R23: Gold Coast @ Metricon Stadium

4. West Coast

36 points (nine wins, four losses), 106.2 per cent

It's been tough to get a decent read on the reigning premier, which has looked in great touch over two of the past three weeks but was terrible against Sydney in round 12. However, they're the champs for a reason, and brilliant ruckman Nic Naitanui is set to return from a right knee reconstruction after an impressive first-up WAFL display. Gun defender Tom Barrass also came back from a foot issue in that clash and could be called up immediately, potentially for Jeremy McGovern, who has been offered a one-match ban by Match Review Officer Michael Christian for a shove on Bomber Matt Guelfi that saw him collide with the fence. With five matches to come at home, the Eagles look on track for a top-four finish.

The run home
R15: Hawthorn @ MCG
R16: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium
R17: Collingwood @ Optus Stadium
R18: Melbourne @ TIO Traeger Park
R19: North Melbourne @ Optus Stadium
R20: Carlton @ Marvel Stadium
R21: Adelaide @ Optus Stadium
R22: Richmond @ MCG
R23: Hawthorn @ Optus Stadium

THE RUN HOME Who will make finals?

5. Adelaide

32 points (eight wins, five losses), 115.1 per cent
A cushy month from round 17, going up against four sides sitting in the bottom 10, could see the Crows sew up a finals spot with three games to play. That might be necessary, because clashes after that stretch against last year's Grand Finalists loom as a daunting prospect. A relatively bare injury list should aid their cause to make finals, with rejuvenated forward Josh Jenkins optimistic he can overcome his knee issue quickly.

The run home
R15: Geelong @ GMHBA Stadium
R16: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
R17: Gold Coast @ Metricon Stadium
R18: Essendon @ Adelaide Oval
R19: Carlton @ MCG
R20: St Kilda @ Adelaide Oval
R21: West Coast @ Optus Stadium
R22: Collingwood @ Adelaide Oval
R23: Western Bulldogs @ Mars Stadium

6. Brisbane

32 points (eight wins, five losses), 108.1 per cent
Facing six teams sitting outside the top eight should set the Lions up for their first taste of September action since 2009, and gives them a sniff at the double chance if they can pinch one or two others along the way. Having five of their remaining nine games at home doesn't hurt those odds either, including a run of three straight late in the season. Chris Fagan's men will want to be safely ensconced in the upper echelon of the ladder before the final fortnight, because they could start as underdogs in clashes with Geelong and Richmond, with the latter at the MCG.

The run home
R15: Melbourne @ Gabba
R16: Greater Western Sydney @ Giants Stadium
R17: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
R18: North Melbourne @ Gabba
R19: Hawthorn @ University of Tasmania Stadium
R20: Western Bulldogs @ Gabba
R21: Gold Coast @ Gabba
R22: Geelong @ Gabba
R23: Richmond @ MCG

AROUND THE STATE LEAGUES Veteran Hawk back, young Cat sizzles

7. Port Adelaide

28 points (seven wins, six losses), 108.3 per cent
Just three games outside South Australia should mean the Power are set for finals, but considering their inconsistency, nothing can be assured. Victory over ladder leaders Geelong has them set up well, and three straight games at home should help consolidate their position. Then there's the matter of those waiting in the wings. Paddy Ryder, Justin Westhoff and Sam Powell-Pepper are three big names who were dropped for the Cats clash, while Tom Rockliff is nearing a return from a left hamstring injury, although he will have to come back via the SANFL. Coach Ken Hinkley has plenty of options.

The run home
R15: Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Oval
R16: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
R17: Brisbane @ Adelaide Oval
R18: Richmond @ MCG
R19: Greater Western Sydney @ Adelaide Oval
R20: Essendon @ Marvel Stadium
R21: Sydney @ Adelaide Oval
R22: North Melbourne @ Marvel Stadium
R23: Fremantle @ Adelaide Oval 

8. Fremantle

28 points (seven wins, six losses), 108.2 per cent
How much time key forward Jesse Hogan spends on the sidelines as he deals with a right foot concern will have a big say in the Dockers' finals chances. The Dockers believe he's avoided a repeat of the dreaded navicular problem that plagued his pre-season and are confident the issue is in the "lower range", according to Ross Lyon, but they can ill-afford to lose the former Demon, considering fellow talls Rory Lobb, Matt Taberner and Alex Pearce are among those out of action. Facing six teams outside the top-eight makes for a relatively easy fixture, but the injury toll might catch up with them if Hogan misses an extended period.

The run home
R15: Carlton @ Optus Stadium
R16: West Coast @ Optus Stadium
R17: Hawthorn @ University of Tasmania Stadium
R18: Sydney @ Optus Stadium
R19: Western Bulldogs @ Marvel Stadium
R20: Geelong @ Optus Stadium
R21: St Kilda @ Marvel Stadium
R22: Essendon @ Optus Stadium
R23: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval

BARRETT The data simply hasn’t changed enough for Richo

9. Richmond

28 points (seven wins, six losses), 92.0 per cent
Injuries have stymied the Tigers' season and their relatively pitiful percentage means a double chance will be very difficult to secure. However, most pundits expect they're too good to miss out on the top eight. Seven straight games at the MCG to close out the home and away season, with four of those against non-Victorian sides, should ensure they don't miss out. 

The run home
R15: St Kilda @ Marvel Stadium
R16: Gold Coast @ Metricon Stadium
R17: Greater Western Sydney @ MCG
R18: Port Adelaide @ MCG
R19: Collingwood @ MCG
R20: Melbourne @ MCG
R21: Carlton @ MCG
R22: West Coast @ MCG
R23: Brisbane @ MCG

10. Essendon

24 points (six wins, seven losses), 100.8 per cent
It's difficult to envisage the Bombers reaching September, but only three matches outside Victoria helps their cause. They need at least six more victories, which looks tough considering five of their opponents are in the top eight. Ultimately, they need Jake Stringer back, and soon. He's battling a leg problem and Essendon isn't sure when he will return. They will be keeping their fingers crossed he can face GWS.

The run home
R15: Greater Western Sydney @ Marvel Stadium
R16: Sydney @ MCG
R17: North Melbourne @ Marvel Stadium
R18: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
R19: Gold Coast @ Metricon Stadium
R20: Port Adelaide @ Marvel Stadium
R21: Western Bulldogs @ Marvel Stadium
R22: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium
R23: Collingwood @ MCG

FANTASY FORM WATCH Bye byes, hello normality

11. St Kilda

24 points (six wins, seven losses), 83.4 per cent
Being decimated by Brisbane on Saturday means the Saints can all but kiss their finals chances goodbye. Their fixture is manageable (three games against top-eight teams) but having a percentage that low means it's hard to see them reaching September, which would mean coach Alan Richardson doesn't activate the finals-based trigger in his contract to see him continue in the role for 2020. 

The run home
R15: Richmond @ Marvel Stadium
R16: North Melbourne @ Blundstone Arena
R17: Geelong @ GMHBA Stadium
R18: Western Bulldogs @ Marvel Stadium
R19: Melbourne @ Marvel Stadium
R20: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
R21: Fremantle @ Marvel Stadium
R22: Carlton @ MCG
R23: Sydney @ SCG

12. Hawthorn

20 points (five wins, eight losses), 97.3 per cent
What a brutal stretch the Hawks face. First the two Grand Finalists from last year, followed by a top-eight team in Fremantle, then the ladder leaders Geelong before taking on Brisbane, which is perhaps the most exciting side in the competition. In the final three rounds, they take on Greater Western Sydney, before finishing the campaign by challenging reigning premier West Coast for a second time in nine rounds. The saving grace is they will be at either the MCG or in Tasmania for the next five weeks. 

The run home
R15: West Coast @ MCG
R16: Collingwood @ MCG
R17: Fremantle @ University of Tasmania Stadium
R18: Geelong @ MCG
R19: Brisbane @ University of Tasmania Stadium
R20: North Melbourne @ Marvel Stadium
R21: Greater Western Sydney @ UNSW Canberra Oval
R22: Gold Coast @ Marvel Stadium
R23: West Coast @ Optus Stadium

FULL FIXTURE Every round, every game

13. North Melbourne

20 points (five wins, eight losses), 92.6 per cent
If the Roos negotiate this fixture, which involves five matches against top-eight teams and three of those away, they can go ahead and drop the word 'caretaker' from Rhyce Shaw's job title, because that would be a marvellous effort. There's a particularly tricky five-week patch from round 18, which sees them face only one side in the bottom 10. 

The run home
R15: Collingwood @ Marvel Stadium
R16: St Kilda @ Blundstone Arena
R17: Essendon @ Marvel Stadium
R18: Brisbane @ Gabba
R19: West Coast @ Optus Stadium
R20: Hawthorn @ Marvel Stadium
R21: Geelong @ GMHBA Stadium
R22: Port Adelaide @ Marvel Stadium
R23: Melbourne @ Blundstone Arena

14. Sydney

20 points (five wins, eight losses), 92.2 per cent
The Swans are in with a very sneaky chance here. Over the next three weeks, they take on the bottom two teams on the ladder, plus Essendon, which is only just going. If they can head into the Fremantle clash at 8-8 with momentum on their side, who knows what can happen? They're going to need to be in form from that point, because that Dockers game marks the first of four straight against top-eight sides. Ultimately, Lance Franklin's left hamstring injury means it would be borderline miraculous for the Swans to make finals for a 16th time in 17 seasons. 

The run home
R15: Gold Coast @ SCG
R16: Essendon @ MCG
R17: Carlton @ SCG
R18: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium
R19: Geelong @ SCG
R20: Greater Western Sydney @ Giants Stadium
R21: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
R22: Melbourne @ MCG
R23: St Kilda @ SCG

FULL INJURY LIST Who's ruled out and who's a test?

15. Western Bulldogs

20 points (five wins, eight losses), 89.9 per cent
A month-long patch when the Dogs play exclusively under the roof at Marvel Stadium gives them some faint hope, but it is indeed a very faint hope. Going on the road to challenge top-eight teams in Port Adelaide, Brisbane and Greater Western Sydney all but snuffs out any thoughts Luke Beveridge has of reaching September.

The run home
R15: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
R16: Geelong @ Marvel Stadium
R17: Melbourne @ Marvel Stadium
R18: St Kilda @ Marvel Stadium
R19: Fremantle @ Marvel Stadium
R20: Brisbane @ Gabba
R21: Essendon @ Marvel Stadium
R22: Greater Western Sydney @ Giants Stadium
R23: Adelaide @ Mars Stadium

16. Melbourne

16 points (four wins, nine losses), 78.7 per cent
Let's be real, this isn't happening. Considering the Demons' poor percentage, they probably need to win all nine games to make finals. 

The run home
R15: Brisbane @ Gabba
R16: Carlton @ MCG
R17: Western Bulldogs @ Marvel Stadium
R18: West Coast @ TIO Traeger Park
R19: St Kilda @ Marvel Stadium
R20: Richmond @ MCG
R21: Collingwood @ MCG
R22: Sydney @ MCG
R23: North Melbourne @ Blundstone Arena 

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