EVERYONE in AFL football has heard of the 'noise of affirmation' but at the weekend we discovered the 'confirmation of silence'.
The sample size is small but what evidence there is of how games would be umpired without crowds confirms the suspicion we probably all had.
All of the AFL's nine round one matches were as good as played in front of empty stadiums, owing to the coronavirus outbreak – and the free kick counts made for interesting reading.
GAMES |
HOME FREE KICKS |
AWAY FREE KICKS |
HOME DIFFERENTIAL |
Richmond v Carlton |
18 |
24 |
-6 |
Western Bulldogs v Collingwood |
12 |
19 |
-7 |
Essendon v Fremantle |
17 |
11 |
+6 |
Adelaide v Sydney |
18 |
21 |
-3 |
GWS v Geelong |
24 |
15 |
+9 |
Gold Coast v Port Adelaide |
14 |
17 |
-3 |
North Melbourne v St Kilda |
21 |
17 |
+4 |
Hawthorn v Brisbane |
20 |
15 |
+5 |
West Coast v Melbourne |
9 |
11 |
-2 |
- Matches in italics involved teams from different states
Six of those contests saw clubs travel interstate to play, which would typically result in them having a crowd support disadvantage and being on the wrong side of the free kick ledger.
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That factor was removed, and the home and away sides split the free kick count across those matches last week.
Only Brisbane, Greater Western Sydney and St Kilda have a negative free kick differential at home against interstate rivals since 2010.
West Coast, Port Adelaide and Adelaide have the greatest positive differential in the same period.
In fact, the Lions are the sole visitors in that time to win more free kicks than the Eagles in Perth (plus-six from four clashes), with West Coast overall averaging 5.5 more free kicks than its interstate opposition in 108 games.
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However, the Eagles have now narrowly lost the free kick count twice in a row at home to the Demons, after winning the previous seven dating to the 2011 season, by an average of 8.3 free kicks.
CLUB |
HOME GAMES v INTERSTATE TEAM |
FREE KICK DIFFERENTIAL |
Adelaide |
105 |
+260 |
Brisbane |
104 |
-8 |
Carlton |
45 |
+143 |
Collingwood |
45 |
+96 |
Essendon |
42 |
+85 |
Fremantle |
95 |
+137 |
Geelong |
55 |
+157 |
Gold Coast |
92 |
+12 |
GWS |
85 |
-10 |
Hawthorn |
69 |
+106 |
Melbourne |
46 |
+56 |
North Melbourne |
54 |
+141 |
Port Adelaide |
122 |
+285 |
Richmond |
46 |
+31 |
St. Kilda |
43 |
-15 |
Sydney |
111 |
+76 |
West Coast |
108 |
+595 |
Western Bulldogs |
51 |
+221 |
Brisbane finds itself in several unexplained free kick quirks, including being the only side to not have a positive differential against Hawthorn in Tasmania.
The Hawks have now won the count against the Lions in nine out of their past 10 meetings at the MCG or Launceston.
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Neither the Crows nor the Suns have a notable free kick advantage in their match-ups in the past decade with the Swans and Power, respectively, but both have won the count more often than losing it.
There is a greater advantage in this time period for the Bombers and Giants over the Dockers and Cats, respectively.
Essendon's been in front of Fremantle in the free kick count four of the past five times at home, while GWS is plus-30 against Geelong across their past four contests in Giants territory.
There is a strong prospect of crowds not being let in even if the season resumes, and the early evidence suggests that means home-ground advantage might not be what it once was.