Patrick Cripps looks dejected after the round nine clash between Carlton and the Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium on May 13, 2023. Picture: AFL Photos

THEY ARE the trio of troubles plaguing Carlton's season.

Ball movement, ball use, and ball direction.

The Blues have become a stagnant and dour forward-half team over an extended period in which a talented but flagging side has lost four of five games, with their finals hopes teetering on the brink of collapse.

Throughout that period, Carlton has been enigmatic – few sides to have won only once in five weeks would have won that match by in excess of 100 points – with last Saturday night's defeat to the Bulldogs acting as the club's campaign in microcosm.

Sam Walsh and teammates after the round nine clash between Carlton and the Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium on May 13, 2023. Picture: AFL Photos

How could the Blues kick only one goal from 29 inside-50s to half-time, before turning the match completely on its head by scoring eight times from 12 entries in a sudden and dramatic third-quarter blitz?

It has been like that for much of the season. Remarkably, Champion Data notes that Carlton has scored from 54.4 per cent of its forward-50 entries in its four victories this season but from only 37.1 per cent of its entries in its four defeats.

That drop-off – which equates to 17.25 per cent – is the biggest of any side to have lost more than one game across a season in history. So how, and why, have the Blues become one of the league's most frustrating teams?

Ball movement, ball use, and ball direction. Here is why Carlton's campaign is falling flat.

Slow motion Blues …

Carlton is among the slowest ball-movement sides in the competition.

According to Champion Data, the Blues rank No.3 for disposals this season. However, despite possessing so much of the ball, they rank No.14 for inside-50s. Quite simply, they're not controlling the footy in the most dangerous areas.

To further illustrate that, Carlton ranks No.16 in the league for percentage of kicks going forward. For context, only Hawthorn and North Melbourne rate lower. The Blues also rank No.16 for percentage of kicks going long.

Saturday night was indicative of this. Carlton had 29 inside-50s for only one goal and five scores at half-time. It then opened the game up, played with a bit more speed and unpredictability, and got back in the game.

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Despite having fewer inside-50s in the second half, amassing just 22, the Blues lifted their output to seven goals and 14 scores. It came on the back of upping their kick forward percentage from 89 per cent to 94 per cent, and increasing their play-on percentage from 24 per cent to 28 per cent.

Carlton also injected some dare into its method. Having not targeted the corridor on a single occasion from rebound-50s in the first half, the Blues then upped that number to 12 per cent in the second half. It might have still been below the league average of 19 per cent, but it showed some progress.

Ask any key forward in the competition how they would ideally want the ball delivered and the answer will be a predictable one: fast. But, at the moment, opportunities for Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay to isolate their opponents are few and far between.

Instead, the lumbering ball movement means opposite defences have time to set up, and then outnumber Carlton's most dangerous attacking weapons. The system is not maximising their talent.

Coughing it up …

If there is one thing Carlton can't afford, it's to waste a rare chance when it presents itself.

But for the Blues this season, on the few occasions when they have been placed in a position to attack, their skills by foot have let them down. Their lack of a dangerous and penetrating forward-half player remains an ongoing issue.

According to Champion Data, Carlton has a kick rating of -2.7 per cent going inside-50 this season. It ranks No.14 in the competition and is ahead of only St Kilda (-2.8 per cent), Richmond (-3.6), North Melbourne (-3.9) and Hawthorn (-4.9).

'Kick rating' is a Champion Data tool that measures the difference between a player's expected hit rate and actual hit rate. A negative kick rate, in this instance, indicates a player not executing kicks as well as the competition average.

Furthermore, of the 13 Blues players to have had at least 15 kicks going inside-50 this season, only five have a positive kick rating. They are Ed Curnow (+18.7 per cent), Charlie Curnow (+7.5), Jack Silvagni (+6.5), Matt Kennedy (+4.9) and Blake Acres (+4).

Eight have a negative kick rating. They are Adam Cerra (-0.6 per cent), Adam Saad (-2.5), Patrick Cripps (-2.5), George Hewett (-6), Ollie Hollands (-7), Harry McKay (-8), Sam Walsh (-9.2) and Nic Newman (-12).

Tom Liberatore tackles Adam Cerra in the round nine clash between Carlton and the Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium on May 13, 2023. Picture: AFL Photos

Slow movement and an inability to use the footy effectively when they do go forward makes the job of a key forward difficult. But when an opposition backline knows exactly where you're kicking it as well, that task gets even harder.

The miracle workers …

Do you believe in miracles? Carlton certainly does.

This year, the Blues have an ongoing over-reliance on their Coleman Medal pairing of Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay. It means their best hope of winning is when one, or both, pull them out of a rut.

According to Champion Data, Curnow and McKay have represented 59.4 per cent of Carlton's inside-50 targets this season. It is, quite significantly, the highest number of any pair of players in the competition.

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While ranking No.1 in this category isn't necessarily a bad thing – the Blues have two unique key forward prospects, the quality of which is almost unmatched across the League – it doesn't always make for a sustainable scoring method.

That is perhaps reflected in the fact that the next most represented duo for inside-50 targets comes from West Coast (Jack Darling and Oscar Allen) and North Melbourne (Nick Larkey and Charlie Comben), who have just three wins between them.

Geelong, for example, also has a superstar key forward duo in Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron. However, their representation for inside-50 targets sits almost 11 per cent lower than Curnow and McKay's this season.

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The Cats move the ball quicker and more efficiently, equating to better opportunities, while they also have a more even spread of options going forward with Ollie Henry (36), Gary Rohan (16) and Tyson Stengle (13) also winning a fair portion of targets.

In contrast, Curnow and McKay have only one other teammate with double-digit inside-50 targets this season. That is Jack Silvagni (19), highlighting their lack of a third reliable marking option.

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That's further emphasised by the fact Carlton has only one other player with double-digit goals this season, Corey Durdin with 10. The high-flying Brisbane, in contrast, has six players in double-digits (Charlie Cameron, Joe Daniher, Eric Hipwood, Zac Bailey, Cam Rayner and Jack Gunston).

The overwhelming reliance on Curnow and McKay, combined with the slow and ineffective ball movement, puts the pair in tough situations. It means if they're not beating multiple opponents – pulling off miracles – the Blues aren't winning.

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That's reflected in the fact Curnow and McKay have kicked 29 goals in Carlton's four victories this season, and only 12 goals in the club's four defeats. The Blues are simply asking too much from them, too often.

The combination of slow ball movement, as well as the reliance on Curnow and McKay, means opposition defences have the time to sit and know where to sit. When the ball use is poor as well, they can simply feast on the entries and get their own game going.

Sometimes the superstar talent in the form of Curnow and McKay will drag the Blues over the line. But that is not a sustainable way to win. The disappointment of the last five matches is all the evidence of that which Michael Voss and co. need.