Luke Parker and James Rowbottom celebrate Sydney's win over GWS in R21, 2023. Picture: AFL Photos

THREE rounds to play, eight finals spots available, 14 teams left in the race. Not everyone's going to be happy. Welcome back to The Run Home.

It was another extraordinary round of footy, with the top two sides losing for the second week in a row to leave the race for a top-two finish wide open.

WHO MAKES FINALS? Play the Ladder Predictor NOW

Vital wins from Carlton and the Western Bulldogs has them sitting nicely in the eight, although the fact Richmond has plummeted to 13th shows just how tight this season is.

OPINION
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With just four points separating sixth from 12th, just one slip up from here can mean the difference between playing finals and not.

Who's in the box seat, and who's facing an uphill battle to finish inside the eight? Check out your club's finish to the season below.

Fremantle, Hawthorn, North Melbourne and West Coast have not been considered.

 

07:27

The 10: Round 21's best moments

Watch the best highlights from an exciting round of football

1. Collingwood

64 points (16 wins, four losses), 128 per cent
Collingwood could have sealed the minor premiership on Saturday, but now it has problems. It is in a mini form slump and now has to navigate the next six weeks without Nick Daicos. The Magpies will face Geelong next Friday night in a blockbuster at the MCG, before hosting Brisbane under the roof at Marvel Stadium ahead of a round 24 clash against Essendon. They are two games clear on top of the ladder, but it is far from an easy run home for Craig McRae's men. – Josh Gabelich

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The run home
R22: Geelong @ MCG
R23: Brisbane @ Marvel Stadium
R24: Essendon @ MCG

ALL THE HIGHLIGHTS

2. Melbourne

56 points (14 wins, six losses), 125.3 per cent
Finishing the round in second on the ladder by just 1.1 per cent, the Dees have a fingernail on a finals double chance. Five wins in a row has them surging at the right time, but Sunday's first quarter against North Melbourne showed there are still vulnerabilities ready to be exploited. Next week's date with in-form Carlton looms as a cracker and while their next two matches are at home, they'll end the season with a trip to the SCG to face the in-form Swans. Winning all three could have the Demons finishing in the top two, meaning they may not have to leave the MCG for the whole of September. – Sophie Welsh

WHO MAKES FINALS? Play the Ladder Predictor NOW

The run home
R22: Carlton @ MCG
R23: Hawthorn @ MCG
R24: Sydney @ SCG

ALL THE HIGHLIGHTS

3. Brisbane

56 points (14 wins, six losses), 124.2 per cent
The Lions held on for a vital win in the west, although it wasn't enough to stay ahead of Melbourne so the Dees finish the round in second spot by just 1.1 per cent. All three of Brisbane's opponents on the run home are finals contenders, although the fact two are at home - where they haven't lost this year - is a good thing. A blockbuster clash against Collingwood in round 23 could prove the difference between a home qualifying final and having to travel to the MCG in week one of the finals. - Martin Smith

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The run home
R22: Adelaide @ Gabba
R23: Collingwood @ Marvel Stadium
R24: St Kilda @ Gabba

ALL THE HIGHLIGHTS

4. Port Adelaide

56 points (14 wins, six losses), 108.5 per cent
After round 17, the Power were on a 13-game winning streak, sitting on equal on points with Collingwood, two wins clear of third-placed Brisbane and four ahead of Melbourne. A month later and after a fourth consecutive loss - this time to Geelong – they've lost their top-two spot and control of their own destiny. Even considering the Power's current woes, it should be starting favourites in their last three games, but none are sure things. If the Power wants to be hosting the first week of finals at Adelaide Oval – and they do – they will need to win all three and hope other results go their way. – Howard Kimber

WHO MAKES FINALS? Play the Ladder Predictor NOW

The run home
R22: Greater Western Sydney @ Adelaide Oval
R23: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium
R24: Richmond @ Adelaide Oval

ALL THE HIGHLIGHTS

5. Carlton

46 points (11 wins, eight losses, one draw), 117.2 per cent
Carlton moved one step closer to its first finals campaign since 2013 with Sunday's win over St Kilda, extending its winning streak to seven games. But the Blues face a tough task next weekend against Melbourne to keep alive their winning run, with no shortage of sides below them on the ladder hoping to capitalise on any slip-up. The Blues, who could get Sam Walsh and Adam Cerra back from injury in the coming weeks, have two tricky games to finish with a trip north to Gold Coast in round 23, before a final round clash at Marvel Stadium against fellow top-eight hopefuls GWS, which could determine the finals fate of both clubs. - Ben Somerford

WHO MAKES FINALS? Play the Ladder Predictor NOW

The run home
R22: Melbourne @ MCG
R23: Gold Coast @ Heritage Bank Stadium
R24: Greater Western Sydney @ Marvel Stadium

ALL THE HIGHLIGHTS

6. Western Bulldogs

44 points (11 wins, nine losses), 109 per cent
The Bulldogs could have dropped to as low as 12th spot with a loss on Friday night. As it is, they're sitting nicely in the bottom half of the eight with back-to-back games against bottom three teams ahead of them. While the Hawks will be no easy beats next week and the Eagles showed some fight against the Bombers, the Dogs will be favourites to make it three wins on the bounce by the time they face the Cats in the last round of the season. - Martin Smith

WHO MAKES FINALS? Play the Ladder Predictor NOW

The run home
R22: Hawthorn @ University of Tasmania Stadium
R23: West Coast @ Marvel Stadium
R24: Geelong @ GMHBA Stadium

ALL THE HIGHLIGHTS

7. St Kilda

44 points (11 wins, nine losses), 104.9 per cent
St Kilda missed a big opportunity to firm up their grip on a top-eight spot with Sunday's loss to Carlton. As a result, the Saints probably need eight points from their next two games against fellow top-eight hopefuls Richmond and Geelong, with both games at Marvel Stadium. Should they falter in either, they face a daunting final round away against Brisbane, who are unbeaten at the Gabba all season. Apart from their round 20 win over Hawthorn, the goals have dried up for the Saints recently so re-discovering that will be key to their aspirations, with Tim Membrey an option to bolster their forward line. - Ben Somerford

WHO MAKES FINALS? Play the Ladder Predictor NOW

The run home
R22: Richmond @ Marvel Stadium
R23: Geelong @ Marvel Stadium
R24: Brisbane @ Gabba

ALL THE HIGHLIGHTS

8. Greater Western Sydney

44 points (11 wins, nine losses), 101.6 per cent
Despite winning their previous seven matches, Saturday night's loss to Sydney suddenly has the Giants in a tight spot. Next Sunday's match against Port – loser of its past four – looms as potentially season-defining. Win and the top eight looms, but another loss would have Adam Kingsley's team on thin ice. The Giants' percentage also counts against them, meaning they need to win at least two, and possibly all three, of their remaining matches to make sure of things. – Michael Whiting

WHO MAKES FINALS? Play the Ladder Predictor NOW

The run home
R22: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
R23: Essendon @ Giants Stadium
R24: Carlton @ Marvel Stadium

ALL THE HIGHLIGHTS

9. Geelong

42 points (10 wins, nine losses, one draw), 119.2 per cent
Even after defeating Port Adelaide on Saturday night, Geelong's premiership defence is shaky at best. Collingwood awaits at the MCG next week followed by St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs, with only one of the final three game at GMHBA Stadium. If they can get over the rebounding Pies, the Cats would be strong favourites against the Saints and Dogs, but lose next week and their future will likely be out of their own hands and leave them relying on other results. – Howard Kimber

WHO MAKES FINALS? Play the Ladder Predictor NOW

The run home
R22: Collingwood @ MCG
R23: St Kilda @ Marvel Stadium
R24: Western Bulldogs @ GMHBA Stadium

ALL THE HIGHLIGHTS

10. Sydney

42 points (10 wins, nine losses, one draw), 111.3 per cent
It wasn't that long ago the Swans looked like they were planning for 2024, but Saturday night's win over Greater Western Sydney – their fourth on the trot – has them right back in the hunt for a finals berth. Next week looks the easiest of the remaining fixtures, but Gold Coast has won three of its past four against Sydney at the SCG, so anything can happen. Although their percentage is good, it still trails Geelong and Carlton – the other teams in the top eight hunt to register a draw – meaning the Swans probably have to win all three matches to be safe. – Michael Whiting

WHO MAKES FINALS? Play the Ladder Predictor NOW

The run home
R22: Gold Coast @ SCG
R23: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
R24: Melbourne @ SCG

ALL THE HIGHLIGHTS

11. Adelaide

40 points (10 wins, 10 losses), 117.1 per cent
The Crows continued their finals push with a 28-point victory over Gold Coast on Saturday, but the wins need to keep coming to ensure they see September action. Every week is an elimination final and next week's clash with Brisbane at the Gabba shapes as their biggest test on the run home. If they can secure the win there, their final two games are certainly winnable – they face another finals hopeful in Sydney at their Adelaide Oval fortress, followed by a trip west to play bottom side West Coast in the final round. – Alison O’Connor

WHO MAKES FINALS? Play the Ladder Predictor NOW

The run home
R22: Brisbane @ Gabba
R23: Sydney @ Adelaide Oval
R24: West Coast @ Optus Stadium

ALL THE HIGHLIGHTS

12. Essendon

40 points (10 wins, 10 losses), 98.5 per cent
Finishing the round a win and percentage outside the eight, Essendon can't afford to put a foot wrong across the remaining three weeks. The Bombers should start favourites against North Melbourne next week, but after escaping with just a one-point victory over cellar-dwelling West Coast, a win isn't guaranteed against the Roos. The Bombers then face GWS at Giants Stadium before taking on Collingwood to round out the season. Both are daunting prospects, but at times this season the Bombers have shown they're capable of matching it against the competition's best. But Saturday's effort showed they also can struggle to match it against the worst, so any slip-up would be fatal to their finals chances. – Sophie Welsh

WHO MAKES FINALS? Play the Ladder Predictor NOW

The run home
R22: North Melbourne @ Marvel Stadium
R23: Greater Western Sydney @ Giants Stadium
R24: Collingwood @ MCG

ALL THE HIGHLIGHTS

13. Richmond

38 points (nine wins, 10 losses, one draw), 94.8 per cent
A horror Friday night for Richmond was followed by a weekend that saw a host of the teams near them record vital wins, meaning the Tigers finished the round in 13th spot. Now a win-and-a-half outside the eight, they will likely need to win all three games on the run home and rely on other results to go their way in order to feature in September. And with another game at their Marvel graveyard next week against St Kilda and a trip to Adelaide to play Port to come, they've got plenty of work to do.

WHO MAKES FINALS? Play the Ladder Predictor NOW

The run home
R22: St Kilda @ Marvel Stadium
R23: North Melbourne @ MCG
R24: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval

ALL THE HIGHLIGHTS

14. Gold Coast

36 points (nine wins, 11 losses), 93.8 per cent
The Suns' disappointing 28-point loss to Adelaide has all but drawn a line through their hopes of reaching a maiden finals series this season. While it's still mathematically possible for them to make the eight, it would take a near-miracle given they're two games and significant percentage adrift from the eight. – Alison O'Connor

WHO MAKES FINALS? Play the Ladder Predictor NOW

The run home
R22: Sydney @ SCG
R23: Carlton @ Heritage Bank Stadium
R24: North Melbourne @ Blundstone Arena

ALL THE HIGHLIGHTS