SUMMARY

The past two premiers meet again at the pointy end of the season, this time with a Grand Final spot on the line. 

Collingwood and Brisbane have become preliminary final regulars as well as heavyweights of the competition. The Magpies have reached the penultimate week of the season for the third time in coach Craig McRae's four-year reign, while the Lions will play in their fourth consecutive preliminary final this week. But only one side can take the next step and continue to chase a second premiership in that stretch that would put them among the great teams of recent times.

MAGPIES v LIONS Full match coverage and stats

The Magpies were building an ominous record against the Lions with four wins on the trot starting with their 2023 Grand Final triumph. Their most recent victory in round six this year turned into a rare thumping of the Lions, while the Pies were on the way to winning 14 of their first 16 matches. The wheels fell off from there to leave Collingwood clinging to a top-four spot but a resounding qualifying final win over Adelaide has allowed its core of evergreen veterans to refresh for the business end.

The Lions flipped the script on the Magpies when they met in the last month of the home and away season while the reigning premiers were responding to another heavy loss. It was a similar story for Brisbane last week as it bounced back from a lacklustre qualifying final performance against Geelong to stamp its authority on rival Gold Coast. Whether the Lions have another shot to fire remains to be seen but a side packed with finals experience has shown it can challenge the Pies. 

Collingwood has made just one change for the clash, recalling high-flying defender Jeremy Howe from a groin injury in place of Wil Parker. Norm Smith medallist Bobby Hill was left out after playing only one game since round 15. Brisbane got through its semi-final against Gold Coast unscathed but is still rueing the absence of dual Brownlow medallist Lachie Neale with a calf injury.

Collingwood v Brisbane at the MCG, 5.15pm AEST 

NO LATE CHANGES

SUBSTITUTES
Collingwood: Roan Steele
Brisbane: Bruce Reville

WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR?

Round 21: Brisbane 14.8 (92) defeated Collingwood 10.5 (65) at the MCG

Brisbane put an end to a worrying four-match losing streak against an undermanned Collingwood with a comfortable victory. The win was the Lions' fifth in a row at the traditional Grand Final venue, as well as their first over the Pies at the MCG since 2014. Emerging key forward Logan Morris booted a career-high six goals, while Lachie Neale (36 disposals and 12 clearances) and Josh Dunkley (31, nine) dominated in the engine room as the Lions tightened their grip on a top-four spot.

Round 6: Collingwood 16.9 (105) defeated Brisbane 7.11 (53) at the Gabba

Collingwood laid down a marker as it hammered Brisbane to end its rival's undefeated start to the season and claim top spot on the ladder from the same side. The Lions were coming off a five-day break but there was no real excuse for the way they were dismantled by the red-hot Pies. The Magpies restricted the reigning premiers' ball movement while Nick Daicos opened them up the other way with 38 touches, eight clearances and a goal. Dan McStay booted three majors against his former club, while the Lions managed what remained a season-low 37 inside 50s.

THE STATS THAT MATTER

Collingwood

The Magpies have built the most miserly defence in the League as they are ranked No.1 for average points against and No.4 for allowing their opponents the fewest marks inside 50 at only 9.8 a game. The backline is helped by the Pies' intense pressure and ferocious tackling across all parts of the field, as they are No.1 for average tackles (65.3) at the same time as letting in the second fewest inside 50s for the opposition at 48 a game. The Lions have different modes and speeds of playing but might have to leave their short kick-mark game at home to avoid playing right into the high-pressure Magpies' hands.

Brisbane

The Lions won't be able to fully cover the loss of Lachie Neale but showed against the Suns that their onball brigade runs deep enough to remain more than just competitive. Brisbane is ranked No.2 for average clearances (40.4) and clearance differential (+4.7) this year, and even without its influential co-captain could overpower Gold Coast 43-25 in their semi-final. Hugh McCluggage (10 clearances) and the Ashcroft brothers Will (eight) and Levi (five) helped set the tone against the Suns, and will be out to repeat the Lions' 51-34 clearance dominance over the Pies in their round 21 victory. 

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR ...

Collingwood
Jordan De Goey has endured another injury-interrupted season while only playing 10 matches. But he now arrives at the business end with strong signs of being back to his best at the right time of year. The 29-year-old is a proven September specialist and gave a reminder of the impact he can have when the stakes rise with 26 disposals, six clearances and a goal in the win over the Crows. With another week off since then to fine-tune and work on his fitness, De Goey looms as the major front-half weapon that the Lions need to contain.

Brisbane
Josh Dunkley brings a blend of defence and attack that is made for finals and has already helped him be a key part of premiership success at each of his two clubs. The 28-year-old was on the frontline with 30 disposals and a goal while the Lions started their finals series on the back foot against the Cats, then played a typically selfless role against the Suns. Dunkley had 20 disposals but a huge 18 tackles as he helped restrict the Suns' formidable onballers and can expect another critical task against the Pies whether clamping down on Nick Daicos or Jordan De Goey.

PREDICTION

Collingwood staggered to the finish line of the home and away season and almost blew its double chance. But it has since made the most of the pre-finals bye to give its veterans time to freshen up and reset, then earn another week's break with a commanding win over Adelaide. Brisbane showed last year that it is able to navigate a finals series the hard way with great success, but with Lachie Neale missing as well as key pillars at either end, this might just be a bridge too far for the reigning premier. Collingwood by eight points.

FOR THE third time in as many years Brisbane will feature in the final Saturday in September.

The Lions booked their place in this year’s Grand Final with a thrilling 29-point win over Collingwood in Saturday night’s preliminary final in front of a huge crowd of 96,023.

MAGPIES V LIONS All the highlights and stats
MATCH REPORT Lions roar into Grand Final after proving too good for Pies
ANALYSIS The 15-minute period where it all went wrong for Pies
DEFINING MOMENT The single act of desperation that sums up Brisbane's season
CHRIS FAGAN Neale pushing for remarkable return, wait and see on Berry
CRAIG MCRAE Pies 'won't stand still' in bid to improve, wait on veteran pair's contract calls

It was a see-sawing affair, with the gutsy Lions wrestling back the momentum after Collingwood kicked six unanswered goals in the second quarter.

It was the Lions' stars who inserted themselves in the second half that proved the difference, Cam Rayner and Will Ashcroft both kicking two goals in the third quarter to give the Lions the lead at the final break.

From there, Brisbane kicked four goals to Collingwood’s two in the fourth quarter to hold on to the lead and win 15.10 (100) to 11.5 (71) at the MCG.

Brisbane midfielders Hugh McCluggage (37 disposals, 10 clearances) and Zac Bailey (21 disposals, two goals) dominated across the ground, including inside 50 where Bailey scored his two majors from stoppages.

Fifth-gamer Ty Gallop was the unlikely leading goalkicker for his team, the tall forward booting three goals, whilst Rayner, Ashcroft and Bailey were the other multiple goal scorers with two each.

Darcy Wilmot was outstanding in defence with 25 disposals, nine intercept possessions and eight marks. The defender’s ability to win one-on-ones and shift the Lions’ defence to attack was outstanding.

From here, Brisbane will now face Geelong in the Grand Final for the first time in AFL/VFL history.

Heartbreakingly, the Lions could be without midfielder Jarrod Berry who was subbed out of the game in the second quarter after dislocating his shoulder in a tackle.

There were a number of injury scares for the reigning premiers with Josh Dunkley and livewire forward Kai Lohmann also leaving the ground and going down into the rooms with injury concerns. Both players were able to return to the game.

But there was no injury bigger than a suspected calf strain to Collingwood veteran Scott Pendlebury who was subbed out of his 425th game in the first five minutes.

The 37-year-old veteran left the ground with calf tightness without touching the ball and was replaced in the side by Roan Steele.

The injury was part of a frenetic start deserving of a preliminary final, with nerves and pressure at a maximum.

After the Magpies slotted the first goal of the game through cult hero Mason Cox, the Lions settled and put through four of their own to lead by 20 points at the first break.

Brisbane dominated possession in the opening quarter with 50 more disposals and 25 more marks as it controlled the play.

But as they always do, the Magpies fought back and flipped the game on its head in the second quarter, led by small forwards Jamie Elliott, Lachie Schultz and Pat Lipinski. 

Former Saint Tim Membrey also played his role, settling after not touching the ball in the opening term. The tall forward kicked two in the second to give Collingwood the lead at half-time.

But after the main break, the Lions showed why they are the reigning premiers as their class lifted them again to another level.

Elliott tried his best for the Pies, kicking two third-quarter goals and taking an absolute screamer in one of the highlights of the match, if not the year.

But it was the spread of Brisbane’s talent that overshadowed Collingwood in the final quarter, with the Lions securing their win with four goals to the Magpies' two in the last term.

Young Lion Gallops into finals
You would have never known that Saturday night’s preliminary final was only Ty Gallop’s fifth game. The 19-year-old key forward played the best game of his short career, putting together a three-goal performance on the big stage. Gallop made his way into the side in the final round of the home and away season, replacing Eric Hipwood who injured his knee. Since then he has played all three finals, showing improvement week-on-week. The 194cm key forward was a focal point for the Lions inside 50, taking a game-high three contested marks, laying four tackles and kicking a team-high three goals straight.

Berry in doubt
Lions’ midfielder Jarrod Berry left the ground in the second quarter in extreme pain after seemingly dislocating his left shoulder. It’s the same shoulder the hard-nut injured in round 23 against Fremantle. After the round 23 injury, Berry missed the following game and then had the pre-finals bye, before returning to the line-up for the qualifying final against the Cats, meaning it took two weeks for the 27-year-old to return to match fitness. Given that, it will be a close watch to see if Berry can get up for the Grand Final.

Veteran's miserable moment
We all thought that Scott Pendlebury was unbreakable. In Saturday's final, the 37-year-old lasted less than five minutes before leaving the ground with calf tightness. The Collingwood games-record holder was subbed out immediately, without having any impact on the game. Pendlebury played 21 games this season and didn’t seem to be slowing down, but this afternoon’s injury showed us that he is in fact human after all.

COLLINGWOOD     1.1   7.1    9.4   11.5 (71)
BRISBANE             4.3   4.6   11.9   15.10 (100)

GOALS
Collingwood: Elliott 4, Membrey 2, Cox 2, Schultz, Lipinski, Houston 
Brisbane: Gallop 3, Bailey 2, Rayner 2, W. Ashcroft 2, Dunkley, Morris, McCluggage, Cameron, Lohman, Zorko

BEST
Collingwood: N. Daicos, J. Daicos, Elliott, Sidebottom, Cox
Brisbane: McCluggage, Bailey, Wilmont, Ashcroft, Zorko

INJURIES
Collingwood: Scott Pendlebury (calf)
Brisbane: Jarrod Berry (shoulder)

SUBSTITUTES
Collingwood: Roan Steele (replaced Scott Pendlebury in the first quarter)
Brisbane: Bruce Reville (replaced Jarrod Berry in the second quarter)

Crowd: 96,023 at the MCG