ONE round remains in the Smithy’s VFL home-and-away season, with every spot in the top 10 able to change in the final round.
The top six sides will secure direct entry into the finals series, while the four sides that finish in places seven through to 10 will play in a Wildcard Round next week.
One thing that is certain is Frankston will feature in the Wildcard Round despite a bye in Round 21.
The ninth-placed Dolphins can only slip as low as tenth, meaning they are destined for a finals series for the first time since 2008 and just seven years after spending a season in exile.
While the clubs placed 13th to 15th will need absolute miracles, there are actually scenarios where any of the five teams outside the top 10 could scrape into 10th spot and secure a Wildcard Round berth.
Tenth-placed Richmond holds pole position, needing only to win to lock in its place, and that would be almost as remarkable an achievement as Jackson Kornberg’s Dolphins given the crippling injury toll the Tigers have suffered this season.
Amazingly, of nine of the ten games in Round 21 will have a bearing on the finals race, and the other – Port Melbourne vs Northern Bullants – will feature comeback kid Billy Gowers trying to win the Frosty Miller Medal as the competition’s leading goalkicker in his 100th VFL match.
Let’s take a look at what could happen in the all-important Round 21.
1st, 14-3, 142.43%
STREAK: Lost 1 (2024: WWWLLWbWWWWbWWWWWWLb)
PAST FIVE MATCHES: bye; lost Southport (1, AAO); def Port Melbourne (27, ETU); def Northern Bullants (54, AAO); def Coburg (79, AAO); def Footscray (23, AAO)
THIS WEEK: Box Hill Hawks (2:05pm Sunday, Box Hill City Oval)
IF THEY WIN: 1st
IF THEY LOSE: 1st if Footscray loses; 2nd if Footscray wins; 3rd if Footscray wins and Brisbane Lions wins and makes up the percentage deficit (roughly 209 points combined)
SUMMARY: The thrilling upset loss to the Sharks was Werribee’s first blemish in three months, despite a significant injury toll to key players. Given the Tigers play the last game of the season, they will know exactly what they need to do to ensure they stay in the top two and earn those all-important two home finals. It’s either a massive advantage or a millstone of pressure. Inclined to think such an experienced team will see it as the former.
BRENDAN RHODES’ PREDICTION: 2nd
2nd, 13-3-1, 124.56%
STREAK: Won 2 (2024: WWWWbWWWWWLLbWLWDbWW)
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Frankston (27, KS); def Casey Demons (56, MWO); bye; drew Geelong (0, GMHBA); def Carlton (9, MWO); lost Werribee (23, AAO)
THIS WEEK: Sydney Swans (11:05am Saturday, Tramway Oval)
IF THEY WIN: 1st if Werribee loses; 2nd if Werribee wins
IF THEY LOSE: 2nd if Brisbane Lions loses, 3rd if Brisbane Lions win
SUMMARY: Playing early in Round 21 takes the pressure off the Bulldogs. Win in Sydney and put yourself on top, guarantee two Mission Whitten Oval finals and then sit back and relax while the heat is turned up on Werribee. There’s a little matter of trying to avenge the home loss to the Swans earlier in the season, which would end their campaign.
PREDICTION: 1st
3rd, 13-4, 121.22%
STREAK: Won 2 (2024: WWLLWLbWWbWWWWWbWLWW)
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def GWS (50, BHA); def Carlton 23 (IP; lost Gold Coast (35, PFS); def Sydney (5, BHA); bye; def Casey Demons (46, BHA)
THIS WEEK: Collingwood (12:05pm Saturday, AIA Vitality Centre)
IF THEY WIN: 1st if Werribee and Footscray both lose and they make up the percentage gap to Werribee (roughly 209 points combined); 2nd if one of those happens, 3rd if neither happen
IF THEY LOSE: 3rd if Box Hill Hawks loses, 4th if Box Hill Hawks win and make up the percentage difference (roughly 59 points combined)
SUMMARY: The only team to beat Brisbane since Round 4 is the Gold Coast Suns (twice), so the Lions will be confident of getting the job done against Collingwood on Saturday. Impossible to see them catching Werribee’s percentage and they will know if second spot is available by half time given the Bulldogs’ play an hour earlier. They’ll have a close eye on the score at Tramway Oval and will be doing something no Queenslander likes doing – barracking for a NSW team!
PREDICTION: 3rd
4th, 12-5, 116.45%
STREAK: Won 3 (WWLWWLWbLWWWbLWLWWWb)
PAST FIVE MATCHES: bye; def GWS (1, BISP); def Williamstown (22, BHCO); def North Melbourne (14, ASO); lost Southport (53, FR); def Geelong (1, BHCO)
THIS WEEK: Werribee (2:05pm Sunday, Box Hill City Oval)
IF THEY WIN: 3rd if Brisbane Lions loses and they make up the percentage deficit (roughly 59 points combined); 4th if they fail to make up the percentage gap or Brisbane Lions wins
IF THEY LOSE: 4th if Geelong and Southport both lose; 5th if one of those sides wins, 6th if they both win
SUMMARY: It’s a daunting task facing the top team on the rebound, even if it is at the Nest. Victory secures a top four berth and, depending on other results, a possible rematch with Werribee in a qualifying final. The Hawks will know exactly what they need to do given the Lions and Sharks both play Saturday and the Cats will be finished by half time of their game.
PREDICTION: 4th
5th, 11-5-1 (123.84%)
STREAK: Lost 1 (2024: LLWWWWbWWWWbLWLWDWbL)
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Carlton (23, GMHBA); bye; def North Melbourne (21, ASO); drew Footscray (0, GMHBA); def Collingwood (29, AIA); lost Box Hill Hawks (1, BHCO)
THIS WEEK: Sandringham (12:00pm Sunday, Wilson Storage Trevor Barker Beach Oval)
IF THEY WIN: 4th if Box Hill Hawks loses; 5th if Box Hill Hawks wins
IF THEY LOSE: 5th if Southport loses; 6th if Southport wins
SUMMARY: A shock loss to Carlton last week means they will have to do what no other team has done this year and beat Sandringham in Sandringham to stay in top four contention. The Cats can’t fall out of the top six but must be focused on getting back to winning ways and putting the pressure on the Hawks.
PREDICTION: 6th
6th, 11-6, 120.53%
STREAK: Won 1 (2024: WLLWLWWWWbWWWLbWLLWb)
PAST FIVE MATCHES: bye; def Werribee (6, AAO); lost Sydney (25, FR); lost Sandringham (1, WSTBBO); won Box Hill Hawks (53, FR); bye; lost GWS (27, FR)
THIS WEEK: North Melbourne (12:05pm Saturday, Fankhauser Reserve)
IF THEY WIN: 4th if Box Hill Hawks and Geelong both lose; 5th if one wins; 6th if they both win
IF THEY LOSE: 6th if Gold Coast Suns and Williamstown both lose or win and fail to make up the percentage deficits (roughly 76 points combined for Suns, 225 points combined for Seagulls); 7th if one makes up the percentage gap; 8th if they both do
SUMMARY: Three losses in the past five has left Southport relying on other results to sneak back into the top four, although it is very possible given the Round 21 match-ups. All the Sharks can do is hold their end of the bargain and then see what happens. Should they finish outside the top-four, they will want to get themselves on the opposite side of the draw to the Gold Coast Suns so they can have a real home ground advantage first up
PREDICTION: 5th
7th, 9-6-2 ,113.79%
STREAK: Lost 1 (2024: LbWDWWLbWLDbWWWLLWWL)
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Essendon (12, WH); def Coburg (34, PFS); def Brisbane Lions (35, PFS); lost GWS (27, BISP); lost Richmond (26, SC)
THIS WEEK: Casey Demons (10:00am Saturday, People First Stadium)
IF THEY WIN: 6th if Southport loses and they make up the percentage deficit (roughly 76 points combined); 7th if Southport wins or if the Sharks lose and percentage gap holds; 8th if Williamstown wins and makes up the huge percentage gap (roughly 176 points more than the Suns’ winning margin)
IF THEY LOSE: 7th if Williamstown loses; 8th if Williamstown wins; 9th if Williamstown wins and Richmond wins and make up the percentage difference (roughly 107 points combined)
SUMMARY: The shock loss to the Bombers last week means the Suns need the Sharks to falter to avoid going through the Wildcard Round to defend their premiership. Playing first means they can try to bank a big win and put the pressure back on their neighbours to get the job done. It’s most likely they will host a Wildcard Round match next week.
PREDICTION: 7th
8th, 10-7, 101.18%
STREAK: Lost 2 (2024: WWWLWWWWbLLWLbLWWLLb)
PAST FIVE MATCHES: bye; lost North Melbourne (8, DSV); lost Box Hill Hawks (22, BHCO); def Richmond (22, DSV); def Sandringham (20, DSV); lost Gold Coast (27, PFS)
THIS WEEK: GWS Giants (12:05pm Saturday, DSV Stadium)
IF THEY WIN: 6th if Southport and Gold Coast both lose and they make up the percentage deficit to Southport (roughly 178 points combined); 7th if both lose and they don’t catch the Sharks’ percentage; 7th if only Gold Coast loses; 8th if Gold Coast wins
IF THEY LOSE: 8th if they don’t fall below Frankston’s percentage (roughly 37 points) and Richmond loses; 9th if only one of those occurs; 10th if Richmond wins and the Seagulls lose by a margin that drops their percentage below Frankston’s
SUMMARY: The Seagulls have had the staggers in the second half of the year, losing six out of their past nine matches. However, they will still secure a home Wildcard Round match if they can handle the Giants. Still a minute chance of pinching sixth (however unlikely that may be) but the focus must simply be on rediscovering their form before the knockouts.
PREDICTION: 8th
9th, 10-8, 98.4%
STREAK: Lost 1 (LWbWWLWWLLLbLLWWWWWL)
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Footscray (27, KS); def Port Melbourne (27, KS); def Coburg (28, PP); def Casey Demons (27, KS); def Northern Bullants (28, GSO)
THIS WEEK: bye
WHERE THEY CAN FINISH: 8th if Williamstown loses by enough to fall below them on percentage (roughly 37 points) and Richmond loses; 9th if one of those happens; 10th if neither do
SUMMARY: The Dolphins are in the finals for the first time since 2008! Given they have the bye, it could have been an extremely nervous wait, but they got the job done early enough. They could end up with anything from a home match to a trip to Queensland in Wildcard Round. Imagine the atmosphere if they don’t have to head to the airport.
PREDICTION: 10th
10th, 9-8, 105.73%
STREAK: Lost 3 (WWLbWWLLWLWLbWWWLLbL)
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Sandringham (33, SC); bye; lost Collingwood (11, SC); lost Williamstown (22, DSV); def Gold Coast (26, SC); def Northern Bullants (95, GSO)
THIS WEEK: Carlton (11:05am Sunday, IKON Park)
IF THEY WIN: 7th if Gold Coast and Williamstown both lose and they make up the percentage deficit to the Suns (roughly 99 points combined); 8th if both lose and they don’t make up the percentage to the Suns; 8th if only one of those occurs; 9th if neither do
IF THEY LOSE: 10th if Sandringham and Sydney both lose; 11th if one of them wins; 12th if they both win. As unlikely as it is, Essendon (roughly 176 points combined), GWS Giants (194) or North Melbourne (235) could pass them with combined thrashings
SUMMARY: A simple equation – win and you’re in. If the Tigers do that they could still get a home match during Wildcard Round. Lose and there’s every chance that a remarkably brave season, given the crippling injury toll, will fall short. The irony is Carlton’s injuries could be the luck the Tiges need to grab what would be a much-deserved finals berth.
PREDICTION: 9th
11th, 8-8-1, 105.49%
STREAK: Won 1 (2024: LWLbWWLWWWDLbLLLWLbW)
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Richmond (33, SC); bye; lost Essendon (5, WH); def Southport (1, WSTBBO); lost Williamstown (20, DSV); lost Sydney (7, RSEA)
THIS WEEK: Geelong Cats (12.00pm Sunday, Wilson Storage Trevor Barker Beach Oval)
IF THEY WIN: 10th if Richmond loses and Sydney doesn’t win by enough to overtake their percentage (roughly two points more than Sandringham); 11th if one of those occurs; 12th if they both do
IF THEY LOSE: 11th if all of Sydney, Essendon, GWS and North Melbourne lose; 12th if one of them win; 13th if two of them win; 14th if three of them win; 15th if they all win
SUMMARY: Will know exactly what they need to do by half time of their match, given Sydney plays on Saturday and Richmond starts an hour earlier. They’ll either have the season on their own bat or they will be taking a farewell tour. The Zebras are unbeaten at home this year, so the Tigers will not want to be relying on them to lose.
PREDICTION: 11th
12th, 8-8-1, 105.35%
STREAK: Won 2 (2024: WLbDLWWLWbLWLLWLLWbW)
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Collingwood (29, TO); bye; def Southport (25, FR); lost Brisbane Lions (5, BHA); lost North Melbourne (5, TO); def Sandringham (7, RSEA)
THIS WEEK: Footscray Bulldogs (11:05am Saturday, Tramway Oval)
IF THEY WIN: 10th if Richmond loses and Sandringham doesn’t win by enough to stay in front on percentage (roughly two points less than Sydney); 11th if one of those occurs; 12th if neither do
IF THEY LOSE: 11th if they lose by two points less than Sandringham and Essendon, GWS and North Melbourne all lose; 12th if three of those happen; 13th if two of those happen; 14th if one of those happens; 15th if none happen
SUMMARY: Inconsistency has been the Swans’ biggest issue this year and losing Sam Wicks to suspension won’t help their cause against a top two contender this weekend. But they did beat the Bulldogs earlier this year so they will have confidence they can do it again. If they do, it will set up a nervous 24 hours to see how the Tigers and Zebras go on Sunday.
PREDICTION: 13th
13th, 8-9, 92.99%
STREAK: Won 3 (2024: LLLLWbLWLLWbLWWLbWWW)
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Gold Coast (12, WH); def Northern Bullants (44, GSO); def Sandringham (5, WH); bye; lost Casey Demons (22, CF); def Port Melbourne (26, ETU)
THIS WEEK: Coburg (1:05pm Sunday, Piranha Park)
IF THEY WIN: 11th if Sandringham and Sydney both lose and GWS and North Melbourne don’t win by enough to overtake their percentage (roughly 21 points Giants, 66 points North Melbourne); 12th if one of those doesn’t happen; 13th if two don’t happen; 14th if three don’t happen; 15th if all four don’t happen. It is unlikely, but the Bombers could steal 10th if everything occurs and they win by enough to overtake the Tigers’ percentage (roughly 182 points combined)
IF THEY LOSE: 13th if GWS and North Melbourne both lose; 14th if one wins, 15th if both win. They could also drop below those teams if they lose by less than the Bombers do (roughly 23 points for the Giants, roughly 82 points for the Kangaroos)
SUMMARY: Essendon will be left to rue its terrible first half of the year. The Bombers have claimed five wins in their past six games and six in their past eight. They would have been dangerous if they had made the top 10, but it would take something out of this world for that to happen.
PREDICTION: 12th
14th, 8-9, 91.60%
STREAK: Lost 2 (2024: LbWWWLLLLbLWWWLbWWLL)
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Brisbane Lions (50, BHA); lost Box Hill Hawks (1, BISP); def Casey Demons (7, CF); def Gold Coast (27, BISP); bye; lost Carlton (21, BISP)
THIS WEEK: Williamstown (12:05pm Saturday, DSV Stadium)
IF THEY WIN: 11th if Sandringham, Sydney and Essendon all lose or they win by roughly 21 points more than Essendon does; 12th if two of those don’t happen; 13th if one doesn’t; 14th if none do; 15th if North Melbourne also wins by enough to overtake their percentage (roughly 47 points more). It is unlikely, but the Giants could steal 10th if everything else occurs and they win by enough to overtake the Tigers’ percentage (roughly 199 points combined)
IF THEY LOSE: 13th if they lose by roughly 21 points less than Essendon does and North Melbourne also loses; 14th if one happens; 15th if neither happens
SUMMARY: Were always up against it with three top six teams in the last three matches, but really needed to beat the Hawks a fortnight ago to give themselves a genuine shot at it. The last quarter against the Lions was crippling.
PREDICTION: 14th
15th, 8-9, 88.27%
STREAK: Won 1 (2024: WWWLLLLLLbWWWLbWLLWb)
PAST FIVE MATCHES: bye; def Williamstown (8, DSV); lost Geelong (21, ASO); lost Box Hill Hawks (14, ASO); def Sydney (5, TO); bye; lost Footscray (34, ASO)
THIS WEEK: Southport Sharks (12:05pm Saturday, Fankhauser Reserve)
IF THEY WIN: 11th if Sandringham, Sydney, Essendon and GWS all lose or the Kangaroos win by roughly 66 points more than Essendon wins by and 47 points more than GWS wins by; 12th if one of those don’t happen; 13th if two don’t happen; 14th if three don’t happen; 15th if all four don’t happen. It is unlikely, but the Kangaroos can steal 10th if everything else occurs if everything in scenario one happens and they win by enough to overtake the Tigers’ percentage (roughly 199 points combined)
IF THEY LOSE: 13th if lose by roughly 66 points less than Essendon loses by and 47 points less than GWS loses by; 14th if one of those happens; 15th if neither happens
SUMMARY: Needs a series of miracles to steal a finals berth as shown above. Realistically it is highly unlikely to happen but they are not that far off the mark.
PREDICTION: 15th
16th, 5-12, 90.63%
STREAK: Lost 4 (2024: LLLLLWWbLWLLWWLbLLLb)
PAST FIVE MATCHES: bye; lost Frankston (27, KS); lost Werribee (27, ETU); lost Coburg (5, PP); bye; lost Essendon (26, ETU); def Box Hill Hawks (7, BHCO)
THIS WEEK: Northern Bullants (2:05pm Saturday, ETU Stadium)
IF THEY WIN: 16th unless Casey Demons and Coburg also win and make up the percentage deficit (roughly 42 points for Casey Demons, roughly 158 points for Coburg); 17th if one happens; 18th if both happen
IF THEY LOSE: 16th if Casey Demons, Coburg and Carlton also lose; 17th if one wins; 18th if two win; 19th if all three win, although Carlton also needs to make up the percentage deficit of roughly three points
SUMMARY: Not a lot has gone right for the Borough in their 150th year with injuries to key players at inopportune times. But there is plenty to play for with the chance to help Billy Gowers win the Frosty Miller Medal in his 100th game and sell themselves to potential coaches.
PREDICTION: 16th
17th, 5-12, 87.90%
STREAK: Lost 3 (2024: LLWbLLWLLLWbLWLWLLLb)
PAST FIVE MATCHES: bye; lost Footscray (56, MWO); lost GWS (7, CF); lost Frankston (27, KS); def Essendon 22 (CF); lost Brisbane Lions (46, BHA)
THIS WEEK: Gold Coast Suns (10:00am Saturday, People First Stadium)
IF THEY WIN: 16th if Port Melbourne loses or if Port wins by roughly 42 points less than Casey does; 17th of neither of those happen; 18th if Coburg wins by roughly 119 points more than Casey does
IF THEY LOSE: 16th if Port Melbourne loses by roughly 42 points more than Casey does and Coburg and Carlton lose; 17th if two of those occur; 18th if one occurs, 19th if none happen
SUMMARY: The 2022 premiers have never been able to get going this year and it is hard to see how they can fly to Queensland and challenge a Gold Coast team on the rebound.
PREDICTION: 17th
18th, 5-12, 87.90%
STREAK: Won 1 (2024: LLbWLLLLbWLLWLbLWLLW)
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Northern Bullants (3, GSO); lost Gold Coast (34, PFS); lost Frankston (28, PP); def Port Melbourne (5, PP); lost Werribee (79, AAO)
THIS WEEK: Essendon (1:05pm Sunday, Piranha Park)
IF THEY WIN: 16th if Port Melbourne and Casey Demons both lose; 17th if one wins; 18th if both win unless Coburg can make up the percentage difference (roughly 119 points on Casey and roughly 158 points on Port)
IF THEY LOSE: 18th if Carlton loses; 19th if Carlton wins; move a spot up the ladder if Port Melbourne or Casey Demons loses by more than the margins listed above
SUMMARY: Will see this game as a huge winning opportunity. If they can land a sixth victory and climb out of the bottom four it will give them great momentum heading into recruiting season after a winless 2023.
PREDICTION: 18th
19th, 4-13, 90.47%
STREAK: Won 1 (2024: bLLWLLLLLLLbLLWLWbLW)
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Geelong (23, GMHBA); lost Brisbane Lions (23, IP); bye; def Collingwood (83, IP); lost Footscray (9, MSO); def GWS (21, BISP)
THIS WEEK: Richmond (11:05am Sunday, IKON Park)
IF THEY WIN: 16th if Port Melbourne, Casey Demons and Coburg all lose; 17th if one wins; 18th if two wins; 19th if all three win. Carlton also needs to make up a percentage deficit to pass Port Melbourne (roughly three points)
IF THEY LOSE: 19th as Collingwood can’t make up the percentage deficit of roughly 273 points
SUMMARY: Finishing the season strongly with three wins in their past five, but the six AFL injuries will take six players out of the VFL team for this weekend’s clash with Richmond. It would be an amazing effort to sink a Tigers team that must win to make the finals – but it is an opportunity the Blues will relish.
PREDICTION: 19th
20th, 3-14, 74.56%
STREAK: Lost 1 (2024: WLWLLLLLbLLLbLLLLWbL)
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Sydney (29, TO); bye; def Richmond (11, SC); lost Carlton (83, IP); lost Geelong (29, AIA); lost Frankston (19, KS)
THIS WEEK: Brisbane Lions (12:05pm Saturday, AIA Vitality Centre)
IF THEY WIN: 20th as they can’t make up the percentage deficit to Carlton of roughly 273 points
IF THEY LOSE: 20th as Northern Bullants can’t make up the percentage deficit of roughly 222 points
SUMMARY: Showed some ticker in the last two games after the Carlton humbling, with that win over Richmond ensuring the Magpies won’t finish last.
PREDICTION: 20th
21st, 2-15, 62.40%
STREAK: Lost 8 (2024: LbLLLLWLLWbLLLLLLbLL)
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Coburg (3, GSO); lost Essendon (44, GSO); bye; lost Werribee (54, AAO); lost Frankston (28, GSO); lost Richmond (95, GSO)
THIS WEEK: Port Melbourne (2:05pm Saturday, ETU Stadium)
IF THEY WIN: 21st as they can’t make up the percentage deficit to Collingwood of roughly 222 points)
IF THEY LOSE: 21st
SUMMARY: The heartbreaking loss to Coburg last week means the Bullants are locked in to receive the wooden spoon despite making plenty of gains this year.
PREDICTION: 21st
