THE WESTERN Bulldogs have copped it again.

For the second year in a row, the luck of the draw has fallen against Luke Beveridge's side, who will face a side in its first game under a caretaker coach after the head coach was given the boot.

After narrowly getting over the line against Melbourne last year in the days after the Demons sacked Simon Goodwin, the Bulldogs will face Carlton - under interim coach Josh Fraser - on Saturday night in the Blues' first game since the departure of Michael Voss.

So what does recent history tell us about how a club responds to their coach departing?

In the past decade, on the 15 occasions a senior coach has departed mid-season, those clubs hold a 6-9 record in their first game with a new coach at the helm. While the raw numbers offer no real insight, a deeper dive indicates a new coach can lead to an immediate lift.

In most circumstances, as is the case with Carlton this week, a senior coach has departed after a string of poor performances and heavy defeats. The fact these struggling teams, over the past 10 years, have a win percentage of 40 per cent the following week suggests some level of on-field improvement (the Blues have won just 11 per cent of their games so far this season).

ROUND 10 Get your seats to Blues v Bulldogs

And this Bulldogs side knows all about the so-called new coach bounce; the Dogs trailed the Troy Chaplin-led Demons by 10 points at three-quarter time in round 22 last year before kicking six goals to four in a thrilling final term to scrape home by six points.

Saturday night's game will be the third time since 2019 that the Bulldogs have faced a team with a brand new interim coach; in 2019, the Dogs lost to St Kilda by 27 points in the first game after the Saints dismissed Alan Richardson, while they also lost to North Melbourne earlier that season as the Kangaroos rode the emotion of Brad Scott's final game in charge.

The most recent example of the new coach bounce before the Bulldogs v Demons clash last year also showed that while caretaker coaches lose more often than they win in their first games in charge, their teams respond positively to the week of upheaval.

In 2024, West Coast pushed eventual premier Brisbane all the way in Jarrad Schofield's first game as caretaker coach following the departure of Adam Simpson. At the time, the Lions were in the middle of a nine-match winning streak and a stunning patch of form that would eventually lead them to a breakthrough premiership, while the Eagles had won just three games in another forgettable season. But Schofield's side led in the first quarter and were still inside two kicks deep into the last term before the Lions eventually held on to win by 13 points.

In 2023, only a bizarre interchange infringement cost North Melbourne a rare win over Sydney in Brett Ratten's first game in charge, just days after Alastair Clarkson had stepped away for personal reasons amid a seven-match losing streak.

That North-Swans game came just weeks before Gold Coast caretaker coach Steven King led the Suns to a first-up win over St Kilda in the club's first game after Stuart Dew was sacked.

Ten years earlier, Melbourne lost 10 of its first 11 games by an average margin of 82 points under Mark Neeld, with the only win coming against the lowly Greater Western Sydney. The Demons' first game under interim Neil Craig was a loss to St Kilda by a relatively respectful 35 points before they secured a breakthrough win the following week over - you guessed it - the Western Bulldogs.

In 2015, Essendon lost to Gold Coast by just two points in its first match after James Hird resigned as senior coach. Coming on the back of a five-match losing streak, including two losses by more than 80 points, such a narrow defeat – Jake Carlisle missed a late shot on goal that would have won the game – represented an uptick in performance.

Of the six teams to have won their first game under a new coach in the past decade, three of them - North Melbourne in 2022 (15 games) as well as Carlton (seven games) and St Kilda (four games) in 2019 - broke long losing streaks.

But there are no guarantees a change of coach will bring a change of fortunes straight away.

Fremantle in 2019 (after the departure of Ross Lyon), Gold Coast in 2017 (Rodney Eade) and Carlton in 2015 (Mick Malthouse) all lost their first game under an interim coach by more than seven goals.

Given the unpredictability of Carlton from quarter to quarter so far this season, it's impossible to know how it will perform on Saturday night.

But the Bulldogs will undoubtedly be on high alert.

New coach bounce?

How clubs have performed the week after a coach departs, 2015-2025*

2025

Troy Chaplin replaced Simon Goodwin. Melbourne (12th) lost to the Western Bulldogs (ninth) by six points

2024

Jarrad Schofield replaced Adam Simpson. West Coast (16th) lost to Brisbane (seventh) by 13 points

2023

Steven King replaced Stuart Dew. Gold Coast (13th) beat St Kilda (sixth) by 26 points

Brett Ratten replaced Alastair Clarkson. North Melbourne (16th) lost to Sydney (14th) by three points

Andrew McQualter replaced Damien Hardwick. Richmond lost (14th) to Port Adelaide (third) by 10 points

2022

Leigh Adams replaced David Noble. North Melbourne (18th) beat Richmond (eighth) by five points

Mark McVeigh replaced Leon Cameron. Greater Western Sydney (15th) beat West Coast (18th) by 52 points

2021

Robert Harvey replaced Nathan Buckley. Collingwood (15th) lost to Fremantle (11th) by 12 points

2019

Rhyce Shaw replaced Brad Scott. North Melbourne (14th) beat Richmond (fourth) by 37 points

David Teague replaced Brendon Bolton. Carlton (18th) beat Brisbane (fifth) by 15 points

Brett Ratten replaced Alan Richardson. St Kilda (15th) beat the Western Bulldogs (10th) by 27 points

David Hale replaced Ross Lyon. Fremantle (13th) lost to Port Adelaide (11th) by 43 points

2017

Dean Solomon replaced Rodney Eade. Gold Coast (15th) lost to Brisbane (18th) by 58 points

2015

John Barker replaced Mick Malthouse. Carlton (18th) lost to Sydney (third) by 60 points

Matthew Egan replaced James Hird. Essendon (15th) lost to Gold Coast (16th) by two points

*Not including off-season coaching changes or one-game absences for illness etc