WHILE Friday night won't be the most hotly anticipated Dreamtime at the 'G clash we've seen between Essendon and Richmond, it's an intriguing prospect nonetheless.

There is so much more than just four points on the line, with the loser to be stuck at the bottom of the ladder and certain to be under more heat than they already are.

Both teams are desperate to record their second victory for the season, and AFL.com.au has hit the books, and is prosecuting why each team can win.

Why Richmond can win

By Sarah Black

Adem Yze is convinced the absolute worst of the injury crisis has passed, and availability was actually tougher last week, rather than this week.

While Richmond's percentage is just as ordinary as last year, something's been different in the past few weeks.

Call it the vibe (the constitution, Mabo etc.), but the Tigers have very rarely dropped their heads in season 2026.

Don't get me wrong, there's one quarter a match where everything goes horribly wrong, but every week, they've been able to steady, stabilise and keep scoring.

The big occasion hasn't scared the young cubs, so a big Dreamtime crowd won't be an issue.

Inaccuracy was the only thing that cost Richmond in the quasi-season opener against Carlton, while they were able to stick with Narrm (a much stronger side than Essendon) for three quarters on Anzac Day Eve.

Seth Campbell is born to play on the big stage, and the bullocking Mykelti Lefau should be fresh after a week off. Regardless of which key forward he replaces, Jonty Faull and Liam Fawcett are now both hitting the scoreboard and will be looking forward to playing against a backline that struggled with Walyalup's multi-pronged attack last weekend.

The Tigers have been living and dying by their midfield and clearance ability, and it will be a serious watch against a comparatively strong Essendon engine room.

Oddly enough, Richmond might have an advantage in the ruck for the first time this year, with the unorthodox combination of Noah Balta and Ollie Hayes-Brown likely to be too strong for Nick Bryan, especially if Balta takes the Bomber on a tour of the MCG.

Nick Vlastuin's form has been building nicely, after missing most of pre-season while rehabbing his broken ankle, and Ben Miller has also been going under the radar, and should have Essendon covered for height.

There's strength in adversity, and the Tigers came together in style to knock off Waalitj Marawar in Perth two weeks ago in another equally intriguing clash.

With not much to lose, and a vulnerable opponent who has come down with a serious case of the wobbles a number of times this season, a second win awaits.

Why Essendon can win

By Dejan Kalinic

If you look a little deeper at Essendon's recent form, the Bombers should be good enough to overcome a depleted Richmond at the MCG.

Like the Tigers, the Bombers are one of the youngest teams in the competition this season and with that comes the expected ups and downs, but since making a shocking start to the year, there have been signs of improvement.

After upsetting Narrm in Gather Round, Essendon pushed Gold Coast at People First Stadium, only to put in a poor performance against Collingwood on Anzac Day.

Across the past three games, however, one major issue has cost the Bombers more than any other – their poor starts. They were 29 points down at quarter-time against Brisbane and lost by 64, and 25 behind at the first break against Walyalup before losing by 43. Both of those defeats came against sides expected to contend in 2026.

The other loss – to Greater Western Sydney at Engie Stadium – was arguably a game they should have won after dominating for large periods, which shows they are capable.

They absolutely must correct their slow starts as soon as possible, having won just one first quarter for the year. Richmond, too, has only won one, while Waalitj Marawar is the only club to win none.

Draftee Sullivan Robey is already making his mark, Archie Roberts is enjoying a good season and Jacob Farrow has settled in nicely at AFL level, but the Bombers need their few senior players to find form if they are to claim their first win in Melbourne since May 23 last year.

Peter Wright's knee injury is a blow given he has been one of Essendon's best players this year, and will add further pressure on Nate Caddy and Archie May up forward – and against a Tigers defence which still has a fair bit of experience with Nick Vlastuin, Nathan Broad and Jayden Short – and raise question marks in the ruck given Nick Bryan is still ramping up on his return from an ACL injury.

If the Bombers' more experienced players can rise to the occasion to support the younger brigade, and they can correct their poor first quarters, they should have enough to overcome the Tigers in a battle between two struggling sides. – Dejan Kalinic