AFL.com.au's Callum Twomey takes a look at what the past few weeks has done to the coaching race and more in Cal-culations

FLAG RACE DOWN TO FOUR

AT THE halfway point of the season, the premiership race is down to four.

Fremantle, Sydney, Hawthorn and Geelong have elevated themselves above the rest, with other potential finalists all showing too many chinks in their armour to have them in strong considerations.

The Dockers' win over Brisbane on Saturday at the Gabba was clinical and done without two of their best players – Caleb Serong and Hayden Young. The depth of this squad is the best in the competition and an 11-game winning streak is to show for it. Fremantle is hungry, classy and ready – the only thing they lack in comparison to the other big three is September experience. At this rate, it might not matter.

The Swans' rout of Richmond proved nothing on either team's place in the pecking order but Sydney is more balanced than in previous years and has Errol Gulden – perhaps their most important player with his ball use and run – to return in coming weeks. Given their Grand Final collapses, the Swans really can only prove this year is different on the final day of the season.

Hawthorn is well coached and well drilled and has match-winners across the ground. Welcoming back Will Day against St Kilda also gives the Hawks an extra A-grader in the run to the finals and they will be hard to beat when it matters, while Geelong's defeat to Carlton won't dim the Cats' chances of a top-four finish given their run home.

This quartet stands above the rest of the flag hopefuls as we embark on part two of the home and away season.

In the next block are Brisbane, Gold Coast, Melbourne, the Western Bulldogs and Adelaide. Injuries have the Dogs not in the mix for the flag this year, in my eyes, while the Crows have weapons but have largely been underwhelming this season.

The Lions' third straight defeat over the weekend has a flag three-peat in significant doubt and all but ready to be ruled out given their stars are battling to maintain the rage after three successive Grand Final performances. The Suns should be seeing this week's QClash as a real opportunity to get a two-game leap on their crosstown rivals.

The Lions may get motoring at some stage but with so many of their players struggling for form, going the long way to the flag from outside the top four this year will be near on impossible.

Their defensive profile at the moment is panic button stuff: over the past three weeks, they've conceded a competition-high 129 points on average and are bottom two in many of the key categories in that time as well.

The Demons have been exciting but are in the second or third tier of teams beyond the top contenders, while Collingwood, perched inside the top 10 on the ladder by two points, are clearly not in the premiership mix this year.

CLUBS ON HIGH ALERT AFTER COACHING CHAOS

IN A MATTER of weeks, the coaching landscape has exploded.

Tasmania started to ramp up its interview process and has its sights on one of Nathan Buckley, Ken Hinkley and John Longmire.

Then Carlton bid farewell to Michael Voss, with the Blues keen to start discussions with all types of coaches for its new role.

The Bombers said they weren't worried about the other clubs jostling for senior coaches when they unceremoniously dumped Brad Scott this week, but it surely must have been on their minds to get into the market.

It is complicated wherever you look. The Devils want a figurehead to sell their dream as well as coach their team. One of their big three targets looks their answer.

But will the Bombers also want to speak to Hinkley or Longmire before then? And if they do want Hinkley or Longmire, which club would be more appealing for the second-time coaches?

Hinkley has already said publicly Essendon needs to work out where it stands on the James Hird decision before other coaches commit to a process.

That should be Essendon's first point of call this week. Speak with Hird, listen to what he wants to say, find out more on his coaching nous and experience in recent years as well as reflections on the past and plans for the future. He is open to a process, like he was in 2022 when Scott won the job, and Essendon should take him through theirs.

The Bombers are said to be not rushing into landing on the coaching prototypes and qualities they want from their next senior coach – who will be their sixth in 14 years.

Carlton is already underway in that process, having established its coaching subcommittee. The Blues have been linked more with a first-time coach since Voss' exit and many assistants are ready to put their hands up for that role.

There is genuine overlap in the coaching Venn Diagram of the three clubs and despite all of them proclaiming they will work to their own timelines and not be rushed, it would be complacent to not be aware of what each other is doing.

FRASER'S FIVE BIG BLUES CHANGES

THESE are the five big changes Carlton has made under Josh Fraser.

The first is in game style – the Blues have taken control of the ball considerably more under interim coach Fraser, with Champion Data ranking Carlton No.1 for time in possession over the past three weeks and taking more uncontested marks than any team in this period. They were ranked 14th for time in possession and 13th for uncontested marks under Michael Voss this year.

Secondly, the Blues have left the corridor footy and are opting for the boundary line to set up their plan. This has seen them be less predictable with their ball movement and they have increased their 45-degree kick percentage, making them move the ball with purpose. Their ball movement has improved from their defensive half and they are transitioning and scoring more from that part of the ground.

The third priority for the Blues has been Fraser not taking his eye off Carlton's strengths.  Their stoppage game has always been seen as the central part of the Blues' hopes, but it has lifted again and in Friday's win over Geelong they scored 49 points from clearances – the most the Cats have conceded this season. Defensively, they are conceding almost four fewer goals per game than the first nine rounds of the season and their scoring efficiency from forward-50 entries has also spiked.

The next change has been moving the magnets and experimenting. Will Hayward has moved to the wing and played more than half of his game time in that role, up from 96 per cent of his time forward under Voss. Harry McKay has played 30 per cent in the ruck, becoming the Blues' No.2 in that position. He barely played there under Voss (three per cent).

Jagga Smith has gone up in midfield time in the past three weeks (59 per cent to 76) and Ben Ainsworth has also been sent in the centre bounce 24.5 per cent of the time, a real change from his previous 97 per cent as a forward.

The fifth change has been some newer faces thrown in, with Jack Ison making his debut in the game that followed Voss' sacking and adding some class, and Billy Wilson also returning to the side. Flynn Young was also busy on Friday night with two goals.

Carlton can heap more pain on a wounded Essendon next week, with its three games after that (following its round14 bye) against Greater Western Sydney, West Coast and Richmond, giving it a sneaky chance of playing in a wildcard game.

YOUNG ROO KEEN TO STAY

NORTH Melbourne has a deal in front of Finn O'Sullivan and the rising star is keen to recommit to the Kangaroos.

The Roos have been busy re-contracting their players in recent times, including George Wardlaw and Paul Curtis this week, with O'Sullivan the next priority.

AFL.com.au revealed earlier this month Tasmania had targeted O'Sullivan and close mate Sam Lalor – the No.1 and 2 picks at the 2024 draft – for genuine interest if they held off on re-signing.

Neither Richmond or North Melbourne has been concerned their young guns would be tempted, and O'Sullivan has been weighing up an extension with the Roos.

The standard move for a player in his position has been to sign either a two or three-year deal and then leave open the chance to sign another through to free agency after that, when he hits his eighth season.

O'Sullivan has quickly become a favourite of Roos fans as well as opponents for his tough, uncompromising style and he is considered a future leader of the club.

It follows Curtis signing through to 2033, becoming one of the longest signed players in the competition, after Gettable revealed that the exciting forward was in talks to sign on to be a Roo for life.

Also, while we're on it, North is not in the race for Zak Butters, hasn't been in the race for Butters and Butters did not meet with Alastair Clarkson last week. Of all the Butters stories this season, that wasn't one.

The movement on the contract front for the Roos after their promising start to this season comes as they face one of the biggest challenges of their campaign as they head to Bunbury to host Fremantle.

Financially it presents as an important windfall for the club to sell off games to Western Australia. But it makes the task much tougher for North to win this away from Marvel Stadium, where the club would have fancied its chances after last week's come-from-behind win over Gold Coast.

MITCHELL'S MAGNET MOVE

HE'S BEEN the Josh of all trades but Sam Mitchell wants him to master this one.

Josh Weddle has been thrown all over the ground this season and throughout his four-year career.

Just this year he played mainly as a defender in Opening Round, then full time midfield in round one, mainly on the wing between rounds four and seven before shifting to the midfield in round eight.

But Mitchell has made a call to settle Weddle. The past three weeks Weddle has played 100 per cent game time as a defender. The week before, against Fremantle in round none, he also spent 66 per cent of his game time as a backman.

The numbers say the shift has worked, with Champion Data showing his round 10 game against Melbourne (player rating of 17.3) and round 11 against Adelaide (player rating of 18) were his highest ranked games of 2026.

Weddle's fixed spot has come after Tom Barrass' injury has seen him miss the past three weeks and sit out most of the round nine loss to the Dockers.

Whether Weddle again shifts when Barrass returns, and the defensive group contains Barrass, Josh Battle, James Sicily, Weddle and a versatile Blake Hardwick who can match-up taller than he is, remains to be seen.

HOW TO HELP THE RUCK PROBLEM

SIX RUCKMEN being selected in the mid-season rookie draft as another reminder of the scarcity of the genuine ruck options around the country.

The ruck cartel taken last Tuesday spanned different ages, heights and experience but all arrived at clubs either as immediate back-up, mid-term hopes or long-term projects.

The dearth of rucks across all competitions is why the AFL should look to bring in a new role in its football operations team: the national ruck coach.

The League formerly had a 'Talls Academy', which was run by former Geelong and St Kilda ruckman Darren Flanigan. But a renewed position for a ruck coach would be beneficial, to fly all around the country for stints working with under-18 rucks in the various talent pathways and state league rucks vying for a shot at the top level as mature-age players.

The ruck craft is different from other positions and really only begins at 18 for some and for others around the 20-year-old age bracket, so a dedicated ruck coach within the talent team could run a coordinated national program to steer the important roles.
Clubs often select rucks at the draft and then have to teach them the basics of the role, when they're already in the system, having often just gotten by on talent alone – and being physically bigger – in junior competitions.

Clubs need rucks but they also need patience. Every trade period the ruck merry-go-round starts and sees a handful of either top-liners or back-ups switch clubs. The AFL is even going to America next week for a three-day US Combine to find ruck options in the form of international athletes, so the scarcity is real.

A ruck coach, someone like a recently retired Todd Goldstein, would be a perfect fit.