IS THERE a road to finals football for Carlton?
Three straight wins under interim coach Josh Fraser have righted the ship at Ikon Park, while a relatively straightforward draw on either side of the team's upcoming bye suddenly has September back on the cards.
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Carlton is now 4-8 with fixtures against bottom four Essendon, West Coast and Richmond on the horizon across the next month, while they leave Victoria just once for the remainder of the season. In the year of the League's first ever 'Wildcard Round', the Blues might be the AFL's ultimate wildcard.
But what will it take to snare a position in the competition's top 10? The sample size, given the 24-round season is only three years old, is relatively small. But it suggests that a team would have to manage around 11 or 12 wins.
Sydney went 12-11 to finish 10th last season, Fremantle went 12-10-1 the year before, while Adelaide finished 11-12 when the competition first went to a 23-game fixture back in 2023.
It would suggest that 11 wins would give anyone a chance, 12 would go some way to guaranteeing it. Given that just two games separates Adelaide in eighth and West Coast in 15th right now, it leaves plenty still in the frame.
One way to avoid the rigmarole of having to qualify for an elimination final through a wildcard spot is to finish sixth on the ladder, handing teams more certainty in their finals position heading into September.
But the number of wins for sixth-placed sides varies far more. Fremantle finished an impressive 16-7 in sixth last season, the Western Bulldogs did it via a 14-9 finish back in 2024, while St Kilda only needed to be 13-10 to finish sixth in 2023.
It averages out at around 14 or 15 wins being enough to seal a top six berth, again incredibly relevant given just two games now separates Geelong in fourth with a double chance and Greater Western Sydney clinging on in 10th.
Given the ladder's logjam, 'Wildcard Round' has meant there's plenty still to play for.
2025
6th:Â Fremantle (16-7)
10th:Â Sydney (12-11)
2024
6th:Â Western Bulldogs (14-9)
10th:Â Fremantle (12-10-1)
2023
6th:Â St Kilda (13-10)
10th:Â Adelaide (11-12)
Carlton's run home
R13 v Essendon, MCG
R14: Bye
R15 v Greater Western Sydney, Engie Stadium
R16 v West Coast, Marvel Stadium
R17 v Richmond, MCG
R18 v Hawthorn, MCG
R19 v Collingwood, MCG
R20 v Gold Coast, Marvel Stadium
R21 v Brisbane, Marvel Stadium
R22 v St Kilda, Marvel Stadium
R23 v Western Bulldogs, Marvel Stadium
R24 v Fremantle, Marvel Stadium
