Errol Gulden during round 16 between Brisbane and Sydney at The Gabba, June 25, 2026. Picture: Getty Images

"OUR BIG focus tonight was to just run forward at them."

With the opening remarks in Chris Fagan's post-game press conference last Thursday night, the Brisbane coach captured a league-wide reality: opposition teams have adapted to Sydney's potent style, and the Swans are yet to adjust.

ROUND 17 Get your seats to Swans v Bulldogs

At the Gabba last Thursday night, Brisbane countered Sydney's transition game by adopting a high-risk, aggressive forward press. 

While leaving space behind them was "nerve-wracking" for Fagan, he emphasised that suffocating the Swans' ball carrier was essential to force turnovers and launch counter-attacks the other way.

The strategy exposed a broader trend. Across the opening 11 rounds of the season, Sydney was a dominant force, leading the competition in almost every key metric. Since then, as opponents have adjusted, their form has dropped. 

This six-week slide has exposed vulnerabilities in the Swans' game, sending them tumbling outside the top 10 in several critical categories.

TURNOVER Rd 0-10 Rank Rd 11-16 Rank
Points From Turnovers Agst 40.8 1 57 15
Turnover intercept to score % 17.6 1 21.6 11
         
STOPPAGES Rd 0-10 Rank Rd 11-16 Rank
Points From Clearances Agst 29.4 3 38.8 15

Previously the best team in the competition at limiting damage from turnovers, Sydney has fallen to 15th in the past six weeks, conceding almost three more goals per game from that source.

They have also become highly vulnerable at stoppages during this time, dropping from third to 15th and leaking 38.8 points per game, an increase of nearly an extra goal and a half (+9.4 points) directly from clearances.

The Swans have also struggled to transition the ball, with their efficiency dropping in recent weeks as opponents - like the Lions - have pressed high up the ground.

Their ability to stop their opponents moving the ball up the ground themselves has also fallen.

TRANSITION FOR Rd 0-10 Rank Rd 11-16 Rank
D50 to F50 Transition Rate 27.8% 1 25.1% 4
DM to F50 Transition Rate 50.9% 2 38.9% 17
DH to F50 Transition Rate 36.8% 1 30.2% 11
D50 Scoring Rate 11.1% 3 12.6% 6
DM Scoring Rate 21.1% 5 16.0% 13
DH Scoring Rate 15.0% 3 13.8% 8
         
TRANSITION AGAINST Rd 0-10 Rank Rd 11-16 Rank
D50 to F50 Transition Rate Agst 18.6% 2 22.5% 9
DM to F50 Transition Rate Agst 42.0% 4 46.6% 13
DH to F50 Transition Rate Agst 27.0% 1 32.3% 11
D50 Scoring Rate Agst 5.7% 1 7.5% 2
DM Scoring Rate Agst 17.0% 6 16.4% 6
DH Scoring Rate Agst 9.7% 1 11.1% 4

Crucially, the Swans have not been blind to these vulnerabilities. Both the coaching staff and players have openly acknowledged the trend and are actively training alternative methods to counter the adjustments from their opponents. However, translating those training-track solutions into a match-day response has proven difficult so far.

And they remain committed to the handball-heavy game that underpinned their stunning start to the year. They remain the top-ranked team for handball metres gained and have even improved their short-range handball retention under pressure, while they remain more willing than any team in the competition to take the game on through the corridor.

HANDBALLS Rd 0-10 Rank Rd 11-16 Rank
Handball Metres Gained 688.2 1 686.6 1
Handball Retention % 83.9 17 85.7 =8
Kick-to-Handball Ratio 1.16 18 1.10 18
         
BALL MOVEMENT Rd 0-10 Rank Rd 11-16 Rank
% Corridor (From D50) 26.5% 1 27.9% 1
% Wing (From D50) 30.4% 16 31.8% 10
% Boundary (From D50) 43.1% 18 40.4% 17

"We've worked very hard with our offence coach and our team as a whole to put things in place so when that does happen, we can turn to that on game day," midfielder James Rowbottom said this week.

"We obviously account for the way teams are going to defend us each and every week. Obviously, that has been a strength of ours throughout the first half of the year.

"We know we need different avenues to goal."

While Sydney's core offensive identity remains strong, the challenge now is to successfully evolve its defensive profile before those cracks widen any further.

And it starts with a tricky match-up against the Western Bulldogs on Friday night and then the toughest test in footy in 2026 - Fremantle in Perth.

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