Tom Hawkins and teammates during the Cats' loss to Port Adelaide in the qualifying final, 2021. Picture: AFL Photos

NO, YOU haven't stumbled across a story from 2020. Or 2019. Or 2017. Or 2014 or 2013. 

This is 2021 and Geelong's horror qualifying final record continues to roll on. 

The damning loss to Port Adelaide last week took the Cats to 1-6 in qualifying finals since the 2011 premiership in Chris Scott's first season at the helm. 

MEGA-PREVIEW Cats v Giants, stats the matter, who wins

Scott admitted the Cats were overwhelmed by the Power's pressure and "panicked" with ball in hand. 

It's become an all-too-familiar tale for Geelong in qualifying finals in recent memory, but the good news typically comes this week. 

From the previous five losing qualifying finals, Scott's side has been sent packing in straight sets just once the following week and have gone on to book preliminary final berths four times.

Joel Selwood leads the Cats off after their loss in the 2014 semi-final to North Melbourne. Picture: AFL Photos

So, what's been the difference and who have been the biggest influences?

Champion Data's Pressure Factor, combined to calculate corralling, chasing, closing, smothering and tackling pressure, shows that Cats have won that count over their opposition just once in seven qualifying finals. 

While they've been able to breakeven in the contested possession overall (thanks largely to a major swing in the 2016 win), their disposal differential has been well down. In other words, the ability to control the ball on the outside and own the tempo of the match has evaporated in finals compared to what the Cats like to do in the regular season. 

Geel Qual. Finals 

2013 (L)

2014 (L)

2016 (W)

2017 (L)

2019 (L)

2020 (L)

2021 (L)

T

Disposal Diff.

+31

-56

-38

0

-54

+8

-64

-24.7

Clearance Diff.

-21

+6

+1

+3

+1

-8

+8

-1.4

Cont. Poss. Diff.

-11

-8

+52

-19

+21

+4

-8

+4.4

Inside 50 Diff.

+4

-4

-9

-19

+7

0

-15

-5.1

Tackle Diff.

-2

-22

-2

+2

-22

-18

-15

-11.3

F50 Tackle Diff. 

+3

-8

+4

-17

-8

+1

-9

-4.9

Pressure Factor Diff.

+0.14

-0.34

-0.17

-0.10

-0.32

-0.12

-0.27

-0.17

Score

-15

-36

+2

-51

-10

-16

-43

-28.2

At the same time the Cats have been outtackled and more specifically in the forward 50 compared to the opposition. Scott was quick to lament the lack of forward pressure against the Power that saw his side record just three forward 50 tackles compared to the Power's 12. 

In semi-finals, the Cats have dominated contested possession and allowed them to get easy ball on the outside of contests. Their pressure rating has been in the positive in all four wins, while they have also ramped up the tackle department.

They're all major factors heading into Friday night's cut-throat final against Greater Western Sydney. While the Cats won the tackle count (+6) in their shock loss to the Giants in round 21, the travelling side dominated contested possessions (+18).  

Geel Semi-Finals 

2013 (W)

2014 (L)

2017 (W)

2019 (W)

2020 (W)

T

Disposal Diff.

+27

-80

+119

+67

+156

+57.8

Clearance Diff.

-1

+2

-3

0

+13

+2.2

Cont. Poss. Diff.

+14

+4

+25

+23

+22

+17.6

Inside 50 Diff.

+26

0

+12

+16

+16

+14

Tackle Diff.

+8

-10

+7

+14

-2

+3.4

F50 Tackle Diff. 

+5

+3

-5

+7

+2

+2.4

Pressure Factor Diff.

+0.13

-0.13

+0.13

+0.04

+0.17

+0.07

Score

+16

-6

+59

+20

+68

+31.4

More specifically, of the 17 remaining Cats who have played at least two qualifying finals and two semi-finals since 2012, 12 produce more in the latter match. 

According to the AFL Player Ratings calculated by Champion Data, Luke Dahlhaus' increase from the first final to the second takes the biggest jump. 

Tom Hawkins is next with the four-time Therabody AFL All-Australian averaging one goal per qualifying final and 3.2 per semi-final. 

In the same category, Mark Blicavs has the drop in performances from the qualifying final to semi-final. 

Patrick Dangerfield remains the best performing Cats in both games but is a 13 per cent better player in the first week compared to the second in Cats colours. 

Player

QF games

QF Rating

SF 

games

SF 

Rating

Diff

Luke Dahlhaus

3

3.3

2

12.0

+8.7

Tom Hawkins

6

8.8

5

16.2

+7.4

Mitch Duncan

7

10.4

4

14.7

+4.3

Jake Kolodjashnij

5

4.6

3

7.2

+2.7

Patrick Dangerfield

5

17.4

3

19.6

+2.2

Mark O'Connor

3

5.7

2

7.3

+1.6

Lachie Henderson

3

7.7

2

8.5

+0.8

Jed Bews

4

8.9

3

9.5

+0.6

Jack Henry

3

10.7

2

11.1

+0.5

Rhys Stanley

3

9.0

3

9.2

+0.2

Cameron Guthrie

6

10.8

4

11.0

+0.1

Tom Stewart

3

7.3

3

7.4

+0.1

Sam Menegola

5

8.4

3

8.2

-0.2

Joel Selwood

7

15.9

5

15.3

-0.6

Zach Tuohy

3

11.8

3

10.8

-1.0

Brandan Parfitt

4

8.9

3

7.0

-1.9

Mark Blicavs

7

12.1

5

9.9

-2.2