Head to head: Collingwood 150 wins, St Kilda 57 wins, one draw
Last time: Collingwood 15.10 (100) d St Kilda 6.16 (52), round 16, 2010 at the MCG
MISSING IN ACTION
Collingwood
Tom Hunter (neck) - season
Brad Dick (shoulder) - season
St Kilda
Raphael Clarke (hamstring tendon) - season
Jesse Smith (ankle) - season
FORM
Collingwood: WWLWW
St Kilda: WWLWW
SUMMARY
Collingwood goes into the big match as favourite and rightly so after clinically dispatching the reigning premier by 41 points in the preliminary final - a margin which flattered Geelong. St Kilda received a bit of a fright when the Bulldogs led them by a goal at half time in their preliminary final match-up, but carry a stack of confidence into the grand final thanks to a blistering seven-goals-to-one third quarter that set up a 24-point win.
Both sides had the benefit of a week off after qualifying final wins, but both also have injury concerns. Luke Ball’s left hamstring will come under plenty of scrutiny this week after he left the game against the Cats prematurely, while Nick Dal Santo (hamstring) and Jason Gram (groin) were also hampered late in their last outings.
Team selection will be intriguing as both coaches have a strong, healthy list of players to choose from.Both sides had the benefit of a week off after qualifying final wins, but both also have injury concerns. Luke Ball’s left hamstring will come under plenty of scrutiny this week after he left the game against the Cats prematurely, while Nick Dal Santo (hamstring) and Jason Gram (groin) were also hampered late in their last outings.
PLAYER TO WATCH
Assuming Luke Ball plays there will be plenty of interest in both how his hammy holds up and how he performs against his old side. He didn’t leave Moorabbin on great terms and a win against his former teammates a year after he fought alongside them is quite a story.
Ross Lyon is always playing down the team’s reliance on Nick Riewoldt but if he gets loose the Saints are more likely to win. He took last year’s grand final loss hard but he’s in much better nick this time around, going by his third-quarter heroics in the prelim.
QUESTION MARKS
Can the Pies get Nick Maxwell free, so he can go third man up and kill contests? This will be important if Malthouse sticks with Nathan Brown and Ben Reid.
Can the Saints plot a path through Collingwood’s defensive press? The Pies are masters at keeping the opposition pinned inside its defensive half, but Lyon knows about defensive zones.
WHO WILL WIN AND WHY
There is a sense of destiny about Collingwood in the lead-up to the grand final. Mick Malthouse has his troops finely tuned and their best footy is good enough to get the job done. The stifling pressure the Pies are able to exert has brought down most sides this season. Riewoldt looms as the wildcard, but even he won’t be able to have a huge influence if he attracts a crowd of defenders every time he goes up for a mark inside forward 50.
PREDICTION
Collingwood by 13 points
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The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
