One round remains in the rebel VFLW home-and-away season and whilst the minor premiers have been confirmed, seven teams will this weekend fight for the five remaining finals spots.
Some questions will be answered on Friday night, with current top-six sides Box Hill Hawks and Essendon making trips to IKON Park and Mission Whitten Oval respectively in order to secure a finals berth.
Depending on those results, Williamstown’s clash with Collingwood and Port Melbourne’s battle with Casey Demons may prove to be mini elimination finals on Saturday.
Darebin will have to defeat bottom-placed Geelong in the final home and away season on Sunday and hope that either the Bulldogs defeat Essendon on Friday night or the Seagulls suffer a heavy loss to Collingwood on Saturday if they are to jump into the top six.
Both those results going the other way will see their fate sealed before they step onto the field.
Let’s take a look at what could happen in the all-important Round 14.
1st, 11-2, 276.9%
STREAK: Won 7
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Casey Demons (64 points, CF); def Port Melbourne (82, ASO); def Western Bulldogs (62, MWO); Williamstown (21, DSV); Darebin (40, ASO)
THIS WEEK: Sandringham (9:45am Sunday, Wilson Storage Trevor Barker Beach Oval)
IF THEY WIN: 1st and a home qualifying final
IF THEY LOSE: 1st and a home qualifying final
SUMMARY: The reigning premiers have set the benchmark in 2025, having secured the minor premiership a fortnight ago, although you could argue that was set in stone earlier due to their dominant percentage. They’ll face the Zebras for the first time this year on Sunday and will be hopeful of extending their seven-game winning streak heading into the finals. However, third-placed Sandringham has plenty of incentive this weekend with a double-chance in the finals still at play and could give the Roos a run for their money.
2nd, 9-4, 139.7%
STREAK: Won 2
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Geelong (35, DU); def Casey Demons (46, VP); lost Carlton (4, VP); def Box Hill Hawks (11, BHCO); def Port Melbourne (27, ETU)
THIS WEEK: Williamstown (10:05am Saturday, DSV Stadium)
IF THEY WIN: 2nd and will play North Melbourne-Werribee in a qualifying final
IF THEY LOSE: 2nd if both Sandringham and Box Hill Hawks also lose; 3rd if only one of those teams lose; 4th if both those teams win; 5th if both of those teams win and Williamstown make up the percentage deficit (roughly 60 points)
SUMMARY: After missing out on finals last year and losing three of their opening four games in 2025, the Magpies have rebounded strongly to lock in a top-six finish this season. The task now is to stay in the top-two with a victory over Williamstown on Saturday. Accomplishing that will see them face North Melbourne-Werribee, a side they have defeated this year, in the qualifying final. A defeat to the Seagulls may see the two sides face off again in an elimination final next week if both Sandringham and Box Hill win their final round matches.
3rd, 8-4-1, 110.2%
STREAK: Lost 1 (2025: LWLWWWLDLWWWW)
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Essendon (5, WH); def Geelong (7, TBBO); lost Box Hill (61, BHCO); def Darebin (5, GSO); def Western Bulldogs (29, MWO)
THIS WEEK: North Melbourne Werribee (9:45am Sunday, Trevor Barker Beach Oval)
IF THEY WIN: 2nd if Collingwood lose, otherwise 3rd.
IF THEY LOSE: 3rd if Box Hill and Williamstown lose; 4th if only one of them lose; 5th if both teams win
SUMMARY: Playing under the Sandringham name for the first time this year, the Zebras shot out of the blocks to claim four wins and a draw in the opening six rounds. And whilst some losses have crept in of late on the back of injuries to key players and stars being signed by AFLW clubs, the Zebras will still play VFLW finals – the first time the club will have done so since competing in the 2022 premiership decider as the Southern Saints. An upset over the ladder-leading Roos could see them face the reigning premiers again in a huge qualifying final, but if they do go down, they will hope to maintain the rights to a home elimination final.
4th, 8-5, 147.3%
STREAK: Lost 2
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Williamstown (8, DSV); lost Essendon (22, BHCO); def Sandringham (61, BHCO); lost Collingwood (11, BHCO); def Casey Demons (12, CF)
THIS WEEK: Carlton (7:05pm Friday, IKON Park)
IF THEY WIN: 2nd if both Collingwood and Sandringham lose; 3rd if only one of those two teams lose; 4th if both teams win
IF THEY LOSE: 4th if Williamstown lose; 5th if Williamstown win
SUMMARY: With the second highest percentage in the competition, the Hawks are destined for another finals campaign and can still earn a top-two finish if they defeat Carlton as expected, and the Collingwood goes down to Williamstown. But they could drop as low as fifth and have to travel for an elimination final if they are upset by the Blues and the Seagulls get the win over the Magpies. Would need to be some monumental margins in Essendon and Darebin’s games for the Hawks to fall further down. Having lost all four finals they’ve played over the past three seasons, they’ll be desperate to finish as high on the ladder as possible to give themselves the best chance.
5th, 8-5 (109.1%)
STREAK: Won 1
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Box Hill (8, DSV); lost Darebin (4, GSO); lost Port Melbourne (31, ETU); lost North Melbourne-Werribee (21, DSV); def Essendon (16, DSV)
THIS WEEK: Collingwood (10:05am Saturday, DSV Stadium)
IF THEY WIN: 2nd if Sandringham and Box Hill lose and they make up the percentage gap to Collingwood (roughly 60 points); 3rd if Sandringham and Box Hill lose and they don’t make up the percentage gap to Collingwood; 4th if one of Sandringham and Box Hill lose; 5th if both Box Hill and Sandringham also win
IF THEY LOSE: 5th if Essendon and Darebin both lose; 6th if one of Essendon or Darebin and make up the percentage deficit; 7th if both Essendon and Darebin win and both teams make up the percentage deficit
SUMMARY: There’s so much to play out for the Seagulls, with even more intrigue added by the virtue of them featuring in one of the games of the round against Collingwood. Although they can finish as high as second but also miss the finals altogether, the likely range for last year’s minor premiers is between 3rd and 6th, making their narrow win over Box Hill a fortnight ago all the more crucial. They can breathe easier if the Bulldogs upset the Bombers on Friday night.
6th, 7-6, 104.4%
STREAK: Won 2
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Sandringham (5, WH); def Box Hill (22, BHCO); lost Darebin (8, WH); lost Casey Demons (WH); lost Williamstown (16, DSV)
THIS WEEK: Western Bulldogs (7:05pm Friday, Misson Whitten Oval)
IF THEY WIN: 5th if Williamstown lose and the Bombers make up the percentage deficit (roughly 16 points swing); otherwise 6th
IF THEY LOSE: 6th if Darebin and Port Melbourne both lose; 7th if one of Darebin or Port Melbourne win; 8th if both win
SUMMARY: A five-game win streak followed by a five-game losing run has put the Bombers in the middle of the pack in 2025. However, important victories in the last fortnight against sides currently in the top-six has put them in the box seat to qualifying for a fourth-successive finals series. It’s a win and you’re in situation for Essendon, and they can make sure of it by the end of play on Friday night when they face the Bulldogs. But a defeat will give the Bombers a nervous wait across the weekend hoping for results to go their way. That wait might stretch right up until the final match of the home and away campaign.
7th, 7-6 (89.8%)
STREAK: Won 3
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Carlton (21, GSO); def Williamstown (4, GSO); def Essendon (8, WH); lost Sandringham (5, GSO); lost North Melbourne-Werribee (40, ASO)
THIS WEEK: Geelong Cats (1:05pm Sunday, KFC Oval, Highton)
IF THEY WIN: 4th if Essendon, Williamstown and Box Hill all lose and they make up the percentage to the Seagulls and Hawks; 5th if all three teams lose and they make up the percentage to only one of the Seagulls or Hawks; 6th if Essendon lose or if Essendon win and they make up the percentage deficit
IF THEY LOSE: 6th if Essendon loses by enough to drop its percentage below Darebin’s (roughly 60-point swing) and Port Melbourne lose; 7th if Port Melbourne loses and either Essendon win or loses but doesn’t drop below Darebin on percentage; 8th if Port Melbourne wins.
SUMMARY: The Falcons have given themselves their best shot of playing finals football since their 2017 premiership success on the back of three-straight victories, two of which have come against current top-six sides. They’ll be favourites against the bottom-placed Cats on Sunday, and if Essendon goes down to the Western Bulldogs on Friday night, all the Falcons will need to do is win to qualify for a finals position. It would complete a mighty rise.
8th, 6-6-1 (116.4%)
STREAK: Lost 2
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Western Bulldogs (1, ETU); lost North Melbourne-Werribee (82, ASO); def Williamstown (31, ETU); def Carlton (60, IKON); lost Collingwood (27, ETU)
THIS WEEK: Casey Demons (10:05am Saturday, ETU Stadium)
IF THEY WIN: 6th if Essendon and Darebin both lose, 7th if one of Essendon or Darebin win, 8th if both win
IF THEY LOSE: 8th
SUMMARY: The Borough’s heartbreaking one-point defeat to the Western Bulldogs in Round 13 has left them with an uphill battle to reach a third-consecutive finals series. While they’ll be favoured to defeat Casey on Saturday, their fate relies on both the Bombers and the Falcons being upset in their respective Round 14 clashes. It’s not impossible, but it is unlikely.
9th, 5-8 (69.7%)
STREAK: Won 1
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Port Melbourne (1, ETU); lost Carlton (87, IKON); lost North Melbourne-Werribee (62, MWO); lost Geelong (23, DU), lost Sandringham (29, MWO)
THIS WEEK: Essendon (7:05pm Friday, Mission Whitten Oval)
IF THEY WIN: 9th
IF THEY LOSE: 9th if Carlton lose; 10th if the Blues win
SUMMARY: The Bulldogs’ four-game losing streak from Round 9-12, which included defeats to Carlton and Geelong, ended their finals chances. But last year’s runners-up can still end 2025 on a high and ruin Essendon’s finals hopes with an upset victory on their home deck on Friday night.
10th, 4-9 (76.2%)
STREAK: Lost 1
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Darebin (21, GSO); def Western Bulldogs (87, IKON); def Collingwood (4, VP); lost Port Melbourne (60; IKON); lost Geelong (42, IKON)
THIS WEEK: Box Hill Hawks (7:05pm Friday, IKON Park)
IF THEY WIN: 9th if Western Bulldogs lose; 10th if the Bulldogs win
IF THEY LOSE: 10th
SUMMARY: The Blues recorded back-to-back wins in Rounds 11 and 12, including a nail-biting victory over arch-rival Collingwood, when they fielded a host of their AFLW list. Now they’ll look to end their season on a positive note and put a dent in the finals-bound Hawks’ premiership aspirations.
11th, 2-11 (55.5%)
STREAK: Lost 2
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost North Melbourne-Werribee (64, CF); lost Collingwood (46, VP); def Geelong (26, CF); def Essendon (55, WH); lost Box Hill (12, CF)
THIS WEEK: Port Melbourne (10:05am, Saturday, ETU Stadium)
IF THEY WIN: 11th
IF THEY LOSE: 11th if Geelong loses, 12th if the Cats win.
SUMMARY: After going down in their first nine games, the Demons climbed off the bottom of the ladder with their Round 11 triumph over the Cats. It’s not beyond them to pick up a third win of the season this weekend, although their opponents in Port Melbourne could still have plenty to play for depending on Friday’s result at Mission Whitten Oval.
12th (2-11, 48.2%)
STREAK: Lost 3
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Collingwood (35, DU); lost Sandringham (7, TBBO); lost Casey Demons (26, CF); def Western Bulldogs (23, DU); def Carlton (42, IKON)
THIS WEEK: Darebin Falcons (1:05pm Sunday, KFC Oval, Highton)
IF THEY WIN: 11th if Casey Demons lose, 12th if the Demons win.
IF THEY LOSE: 12th
SUMMARY: Another rough season for the Cats who are on the brink of successive bottom-place finishes. It would be their best victory of the year if they were to pull off the upset against Darebin at KFC Oval given what is potentially at stake for the Falcons. It they can do that they will avoid equalling their fewest wins in a rebel VFLW season.
