No spot inside the top ten is secured entering the final round of the Smithy’s VFL season.

While every match will shape the ladder heading into the finals, there are four matches in particular which will determine the makeup of the top-six and which sides will feature in the Wildcard matches.

On Saturday the GWS Giants travel to People First Stadium to take on the Gold Coast Suns, where a Giants’ win could propel them as high as fifth, while a loss will consign them to an away trip in a Wildcard Final.

Sunday provides three blockbuster match-ups, which includes the seventh-placed Casey Demons hosting ladder-leader Box Hill Hawks. A win to the hosts could see them host an elimination final in a fortnight, while a win to the Hawks should secure the minor premiership.

Frankston and Brisbane Lions meet in a mouth-watering battle at Kinetic Stadium featuring the sides currently sitting in fourth and fifth position.

The Dolphins will secure a top-four finish with victory, while the Lions will likely take fourth spot if they win. A loss could see the Lions slip as low as eighth spot depending on other results.

The regular season concludes with an enthralling clash between Williamstown and Richmond at DSV Stadium.

The Seagulls enter the round in 11th spot and simply must win in order to book a finals place for the third-consecutive year, while victory to the Tigers could push them into the top-six after being bundled out in the Wildcard Finals in each of the past two years.

Continue to see what is at stake for every side in the final home and away round.

1st (14-3, 141.0%)
STREAK: Lost 1
PAST FIVE WEEKS: lost Footscray (19 points, BHCO); def Southport (44, FR); bye; def Williamstown (10, DSV); def Essendon (69, BHCO)
THIS WEEK: Casey Demons (1:05pm Sunday, Casey Fields)
IF THEY WIN: 1st unless Footscray wins by enough to overtake the Hawks’ percentage
IF THEY LOSE: 1st if Footscray loses; 2nd if the Bulldogs win
SUMMARY: Despite banking seven-straight wins leading up to Round 20, the Hawks’ minor premiership hopes took a hit with their defeat to Footscray last week. Still, they are in the box seat to claim the minor premiership given they enter the final round in top spot. However, their opponents in Casey have plenty to play for.

2nd (14-3, 136.7%)
STREAK: Won 10
PAST FIVE WEEKS: def Box Hill (19, BHCO); def GWS Giants (41, MWO); def Essendon (63, Han); def Brisbane Lions (26, BHA); bye
THIS WEEK: Carlton (12:05pm Sunday, Mission Whitten Oval)
IF THEY WIN: 1st if Box Hill Hawks loses or if Bulldogs win by enough to overtake the Hawks’ percentage; 2nd if neither of those occur
IF THEY LOSE: 2nd unless Box Hill Hawks lose and drop beneath the Bulldogs on percentage
SUMMARY: The Dogs are on fire and with 10-straight wins have secured a top-two finish for the second year in row. After finishing in second spot last year, they could push up to be the minor premiership if results go their way this weekend. They will be highly fancied to extend their streak to 11 this weekend and will go into the finals in the hottest of form.

3rd (12-4-1, 132.5%)
STREAK: Won 1
PAST FIVE WEEKS: def Werribee (13, AAO); lost Box Hill (44, FR); def Williamstown (22, FR); bye; def Richmond (28, KS)
THIS WEEK: North Melbourne (11:05am Saturday, Fankhauser Reserve)
IF THEY WIN: 3rd
IF THEY LOSE: 3rd if Frankston loses, 4th if the Dolphins win
SUMMARY: It’s another double chance secured for this impressive Sharks outfit, a feat they have now achieved in three of the past four seasons. They’ll be keen to head into the finals with consecutive wins in preparation for a trip to Melbourne for qualifying final against either Box Hill or Footscray in a fortnight.

4th (12-5, 111.9%)
STREAK: Won 7
PAST FIVE: def North Melbourne (12, AS); def Carlton (24, KS); def Collingwood (36, KS); def Northern Bullants (72, GSO); def Port Melbourne (35, KS)
THIS WEEK: Brisbane Lions (1:05pm Sunday, Kinetic Stadium)
IF THEY WIN: 3rd is Southport loses, 4th if the Sharks win
IF THEY LOSE: 4th if Brisbane Lions don’t beat the Dolphins by enough to overtake the percentage gap, which currently stands at 2.5 percent (roughly three goals); 5th if they Lions win and make up the percentage gap;  6th if either of Collingwood or Richmond wins and makes up the percentage gap (9.9 percent for Collingwood and 10.4 percent for Richmond); 7th if both Collingwood and Richmond win and make up the percentage gap
SUMMARY: Finals come early for Frankston with a huge test against Brisbane this weekend. But with seven-straight wins behind them, they’ll feel good about grabbing another four points in front of their loyal fans to secure a top-four finish. They could still gain a double chance with a loss, but they’ll be hoping to avoid leaving it to the football gods and continue on their winning way.

5th (11-6, 109.4%)
STREAK: Lost 1
PAST FIVE WEEKS: lost Casey Demons (4, BHA); def Coburg (26, BPP); def Gold Coast Suns (9, PFS); lost Footscray (26, BHA); def Carlton (24, IP)
THIS WEEK: Frankston (1:05pm Sunday, Kinetic Stadium)
IF THEY WIN: 4th if they win by enough to overtake the percentage deficit to Frankson; 5th unless Collingwood and/or Richmond win by enough to overtake the percentage deficit to the Lions
IF THEY LOSE: 5th if Collingwood, Richmond, Casey Demons and GWS Giants all lose; 6th if one of them wins, 7th if two win; 8th if three win, 9th if they all win
SUMMARY: A range of scenarios are now possible for the Lions following their nail-biting loss to Casey last week. A victory by three goals or more over Frankston should see them book a top-four spot for the fourth year in a row, but a defeat could see them drop all the way to ninth, which would see them travel for an interstate Wildcard Final.

6th (11-6, 102.0%)
STREAK: Won 1
PAST FIVE WEEKS: bye; def Williamstown (11, DSV); lost Frankston (36, KS); def Geelong (15, GMHBA); def Gold Coast Suns (2, PFS)
THIS WEEK: Port Melbourne (2:05pm Saturday, ETU Stadium)
IF THEY WIN: 4th if Brisbane Lions beat Frankston and the Magpies make up the percentage deficits to both the Dolphins and Lions; 5th if Frankston wins, or if Brisbane wins and the Magpies make up the percentage gap on just one of the Dolphins or Lions; the Magpies will slip one spot if any of the above scenarios occurs and Richmond beats Williamstown by enough to make up the percentage gap on the Magpies
IF THEY LOSE: 6th if Richmond, Casey Demons and GWS Giants all lose; 7th if one of them wins, 8th if two of them win; 9th if all three win; Collingwood could also drop below Richmond if the Tigers lose by approximately six points less than the Magpies do
SUMMARY: A top-four finish looks unlikely for the Magpies, but it is not impossible. However, they would be happy to win their 12th game of the season on Saturday and secure a home elimination final to complete a terrific turnaround from a disappointing 2024 season. Can’t finish lower than ninth.

7th (11-6, 101.6%)
STREAK: Won 1
PAST FIVE WEEKS: def Sandringham (41, KS); lost Gold Coast Suns (17, PFS); def Werribee (46, AAO); bye; lost Southport (28, KS)
THIS WEEK: Williamstown (2:05pm Sunday, DSV Stadium)
IF THEY WIN: 4th if Brisbane Lions win and the Tigers make up the percentage deficits to Frankston, the Lions and Collingwood; 5th, 6th or 7th if one, two or three of those don’t go their way
IF THEY LOSE: 7th if the Casey Demons and GWS Giants lose; 8th if one wins; 9th if they both win. Richmond could jump Collingwood if the Tigers lose by approximately six points less than the Magpies
SUMMARY: The Tigers also can’t finish lower than ninth but face a tough finish to the regular season at DSV Stadium when they come up against a Williamstown outfit that must win to feature in the finals. Richmond will remember the heavy 66-point defeat they suffered at the hands of the Seagulls when the two teams last faced off in a 2024 Wildcard Final.

8th (10-6-1, 135.5%)
STREAK: Won 4
PAST FIVE WEEKS: def Brisbane Lions (4, BHA); bye; def Sandringham (63, CF); def Carlton (108, CF); def Werribee (76, MWO)
THIS WEEK: Box Hill Hawks (1:05pm Sunday, Casey Fields)
IF THEY WIN: 5th if Brisbane Lions, Collingwood and Richmond all lose; 6th if one wins; 7th if two win; 8th if they all win
IF THEY LOSE: 8th if the GWS Giants lose; 9th if the Giants win
SUMMARY: The Demons are in great form and there’s no reason why they can’t give the top-of-the-ladder Hawks a run for their money, especially with a top six finish on the line. Most scenarios point to them hosting home final, be it an Elimination Final or Wildcard Final.

9th (10-7, 116.7%)
STREAK: Lost 2
PAST FIVE WEEKS: bye; lost Footscray (41, MWO); lost Sydney (28, ES); def Essendon (21, WH); lost Geelong (50, ES)
THIS WEEK: Gold Coast Suns (3:45pm Saturday, People First Stadium)
IF THEY WIN: 5th if Brisbane Lions, Collingwood, Richmond and Casey Demons all lose; 6th if one wins; 7th if two win; 8th if three win; 9th if all four win
IF THEY LOSE: 9th
SUMMARY: Just one win in their previous four games have seen the Giants slip to ninth spot heading into the final round. While they can’t drop out of the top 10, the side might have to settle for a Wildcard spot in their maiden VFL finals appearance unless other results go their way. Their strong percentage will be helpful if they can account for the Suns on Saturday.

10th (9-9, 105.0%)
STREAK: Won 1
PAST FIVE WEEKS: def Port Melbourne (18, BPP); lost Brisbane Lions (26, BPP); def Northern Bullants (15, GSO); lost Werribee 20 (BPP); bye
THIS WEEK: Bye
SUMMARY: The Lions have had an incredible season to storm into finals contention. They did all they could last week by beating Port Melbourne in their final home and away game last week and will now anxiously sweat on the result of Williamstown’s clash with Richmond (their former affiliate) on Sunday to see if they will appear in the finals for the first time since 2008. If the Seagulls lose, Coburg will play in a Wildcard Final.

11th (9-8, 103.4%)
STREAK: Lost 4
PAST FIVE WEEKS: bye; lost Collingwood (11, DSV); lost Southport (22, FR); lost Box Hill (10, DSV); lost Northern Bullants (8, GSO)
THIS WEEK: Richmond (2:05pm Sunday, DSV Stadium)
IF THEY WIN: 10th
IF THEY LOSE: 11th if Geelong and Carlton both lose; 12th if either of the Cats or Blues win and make up the percentage deficit to the Seagulls; 13th if both the Cats and Blues win and make up the percentage deficit to the Seagulls
SUMMARY: A disastrous five weeks has pushed the Seagulls out of the top 10 and needing to win against a confirmed finalists in the last round of the season to play finals. A win over the Tigers won’t be easy, but Williamstown is still in control of its destiny. Win and they Seagulls are in, lose and they miss out.

12th (8-9, 97.2%)
STREAK: Won 2
PAST FIVE WEEKS: def Ess (14, GMHBA); bye; def North Melbourne (2, AS); lost Collingwood (15, MWO); def GWS Giants (50, ES)
THIS WEEK: Sydney (11:35am Saturday, Tramway Oval)
IF THEY WIN: 10th if Williamstown loses and they make up the percentage deficit to the Coburg (approximately 19 goals) and the Seagulls; 11th if Williamstown loses and they only make up the percentage difference to the Seagulls (approximately 15 goals); 12th if they don’t make up the percentage; Geelong will slip one spot if any of the above scenarios occurs and Carlton beats Footscray by enough to make up the percentage gap on the Cats
IF THEY LOSE: 12th if Carlton and North Melbourne lose; 13th if one wins; 14th if they both do
SUMMARY: Three wins in their last four matches have kept the Cats in the finals conversation heading into the last round. However, despite still being favourites to take care of the in-form Swans on Saturday, they’ll need plenty to go right if they’re to make a surprise jump into 10th position.

13th (8-9, 94.2%)
STREAK: Won 1
PAST FIVE WEEKS: def Gold Coast Suns (24, IP); lost Frankston (24, KS); bye; lost Casey Demons (108, CF); lost Brisbane Lions (24, IP)
THIS WEEK: Footscray (12:05pm Saturday, Mission Whitten Oval)
IF THEY WIN: 10th if Williamstown loses and the Blues make up the percentage deficit to Coburg (approximately 27 goals) and the Seagulls (approximately 22 goals) without Geelong winning and maintaining a superior percentage over the Blues; 11th if one goes against them; 12th if two do; 13th if three go the wrong way
IF THEY LOSE: 12th if they lose by approximately 48 points fewer than Geelong and North Melbourne also loses; 13th if one of those occur; 14th if they both do
SUMMARY: The two most important words for Blues fans this week are ‘mathematically possible’. An unlikely finals berth would need to start with a massive upset over the red-hot Footscray this weekend, before hoping some other results fall in their favour. It’s highly unlikely but nevertheless the finals flame still flickers.

14th (7-9-1, 99.6%)
STREAK: Lost 6
PAST FIVEW WEEKS: lost Frankston (12, AS); lost Sandringham (23, TBO); lost Geelong (2, AS); lost Sydney 11 (TO); bye
THIS WEEK: Southport (10:35am Saturday, Fankhauser Reserve)
IF THEY WIN: 12th if both Geelong and Carlton lose; 13th if one wins; 14th if they both win
IF THEY LOSE: 14th if the Gold Coast Suns lose to the GWS Giants; 15th if the Gold Coast Suns win and make up the 3.6 percentage deficit to the Kangaroos
SUMMARY: The Roos slipped out of finals contention with six-straight defeats, despite their last five losses being my deficits of four goals or less. The plan will be to end the season adding to the wins column, but it will be a monumental task as they’ll need to defeat Southport at Fankhauser Reserve to achieve this.

15th (6-10-1, 96.0%)
STREAK: Lost 1
PAST FIVE WEEKS: lost Carlton (24, IP); def Richmond (17, PFS); lost Brisbane Lions (9, PFS); def Port Melbourne (13, ETU); lost Collingwood (2, PFS)
THIS WEEK: GWS Giants (3:45pm Saturday, People First Stadium)
IF THEY WIN: 14th if North Melbourne lose and the Suns make up the percentage gap on the Kangaroos; 15th if North Melbourne wins
IF THEY LOSE: 15th if both Werribee and Port Melbourne lose; 16th if one of them wins; 17th if they both win
SUMMARY: Can shape the top 10 if they down the Giants to finish off the season. After a very tough start, the have put in improved efforts of late, including a convincing win over Richmond and close losses to the finals-bound Brisbane and Collingwood. Should go in with confidence this week despite what is at stake for the Giants.

16th (6-11, 92.7%)
STREAK: Lost 2
PAST FIVE WEEKS: lost Southport (13, AAO); bye; lost Richmond (46, AAO); def Coburg (20, BPP); lost Casey Demons (76, MWO)
THIS WEEK: Northern Bullants (2:05pm Saturday, Genis Steel Oval)
IF THEY WIN: 15th if the Gold Coast Suns lose; 16th if the Suns win
IF THEY LOSE: 16th if Port Melbourne loses; 17th if the Borough win; 18th if the Borough win and Sydney Swans make up a 16.8 percentage difference
SUMMARY: The great success with having players drafted by AFL clubs will overshadow the accomplishments on field for the reigning premiers in 2025. Can end the season well against a side they’ve beaten well in recent years.

17th (5-11-1, 99.2%)
STREAK: Lost 1
PAST FIVE WEEKS: lost Coburg (18, BPP); def Northern Bullants (44, ETU); bye; lost Gold Coast (13, ETU); lost Frankston (35, KS)
THIS WEEK: Collingwood (2:05pm Saturday, ETU Stadium)
IF THEY WIN: 15th if both the Gold Coast Suns and Werribee lose; 16th if one wins; 17th if they both win
IF THEY LOSE: 17th if Sydney loses; 18th if the Swans win
SUMMARY: Weren’t far off a Coburg team who had everything to play for last week. The same intensity and effort against a Collingwood could make this an interesting contest to round out the season for the Borough.

18th (5-12, 75.9%)
STREAK: Won 3
PAST FIVE WEEKS: bye; def Essendon (35, TO); def GWS Giants (28, ES); def North Melbourne (11, TO); lost Sandringham (60, TBO
THIS WEEK: Geelong (11:35am Saturday, Tramway Oval)
IF THEY WIN: 17th if Port Melbourne loses; 18th if the Borough win
IF THEY LOSE: 18th
SUMMARY: Between injuries and some poor showings, it has not been a kind year for the Swans. However, their performance has improved of late, and they come into the last game of the year on a three-game win streak. Will end any chance of Geelong’s finals miracle if they pick up the four points on Saturday.

19th (3-13-1, 74.4%)
STREAK: Lost 1
PAST FIVE WEEKS: lost Richmond (41, KS); def North Melbourne (23, TBO); lost Casey (63, CF); bye; def Sydney Swans (60, TBO)
THIS WEEK: Essendon (2:10pm Saturday, Wilson Storage Trevor Barker Beach Oval)
IF THEY WIN: 19th
IF THEY LOSE: 20th
SUMMARY: Sandringham’s final VFL match in its affiliation with St Kilda is very winnable, taking on an Essendon side on an 11-game losing run. A great opportunity to end the partnership in a positive way on Saturday.

20th (3-14, 81.2%)
STREAK: Lost 11
PAST FIVE WEEKS: lost Geelong (14, GMHBA); lost Sydney Swans (35, TO); lost Footscray (63, Han); lost GWS Giants (21, WH); lost Box Hill (69, BHCO)
THIS WEEK: Sandringham (2:10pm Saturday, Wilson Storage Trevor Barker Beach Oval)
IF THEY WIN: 19th
IF THEY LOSE: 20th
SUMMARY: An incredibly tough year for the injury-stricken Bombers, who have not won a match since Round 7. Nothing to lose against the Zebras this week before their attention turns to 2026.

21st (2-15, 47.8%)
STREAK: Lost 3
PAST FIVE WEEKS: bye; lost Port Melbourne (44, ETU); lost Coburg (15, GSO); lost Frankston (72, GSO); def Williamstown (8, GSO)
THIS WEEK: Werribee (2:05pm Saturday, Genis Steel Oval)
IF THEY WIN: 21st
IF THEY LOSE: 21st
SUMMARY: The Bullants avoided a winless campaign with two memorable come-from-behind wins over Sydney and Williamstown in Rounds 15 and 16. They’ll be hoping to end the season with a win to celebrate Jean-Luc Velissaris’ 100th VFL game in style.