AFL.com.au's Callum Twomey takes a look at what comes next for Michael Voss, highlights some epic smothers and more in Cal-culations

CARLTON'S QUESTION NOT IF BUT WHEN

CARLTON'S Michael Voss question has moved from an if to a when.

There is no other conclusion to reach after the first month of this season showed the Blues to have corrected no flaws from last year and look devoid of solutions. An inevitability has enveloped their coaching decision.

That Carlton led at three-quarter time by 22 points over North Melbourne on Good Friday and were again overrun as the Roos kicked the last five goals of the game merely added to an already underwhelming start to the year that could have started worse if Tom Lynch wasn't wildly inaccurate in front of goal in round one.

In August last year, Carlton backed in Voss to retain his position for 2026. There has been only seven games since that commitment, of which the Blues have won three (back-end thumpings of Port Adelaide and Essendon last year and the narrow four-point escape against the Tigers earlier this season).

That decision last year to resist changing Voss but make change around him – including new assistants and a new football boss in Chris Davies – surprised many, including this column, given Carlton's flaws were laid bare last year. They continue to be there for all to see.

But choosing to stick with him supported the view the Blues knew where they were at. And as they sensed a trade and free agency period of exits, they knew bringing in a new coach to shoulder that load would have been too much. Take a couple of steps back to take steps forward and give Voss, a champion of the game, the chance to see out his contract to get it right.

The opposite decision was made on Simon Goodwin at Melbourne, with the Dees seeing a trade period of change ahead and wanting to give a new man the keys to a new car. Imagine if Melbourne was 1-3 under Goodwin right now?

But the wheel isn't turning at the Blues. Carlton's transition game – both for and against – is battling. They are 17th in the AFL for inside 50 differential, averaging 14 fewer entries a game. Champion Data shows they continue to have a huge scoring imbalance and remain far too reliant on stoppage scoring. When that stops, so do they.

Incredibly, 62.2 per cent of the Blues' score has come from stoppages, the highest percentage in the competition. The next highest is Brisbane with 45.2 per cent. The AFL average is 37 per cent and they average just 3.5 goals a game from turnover, ranking them last. In nearly all the key categories, Carlton is ranking either the same or worse this year than 2025.

And it took the Roos only a 20-minute burst of talent, speed and dare to break open the game as Carlton played it safe late and hoped to hold on.

The trend is not new. Since Greater Western Sydney sliced through the Blues in round 17, 2024, Carlton has played 36 games and won 14 of them. Eight of those have come against West Coast, Richmond, North Melbourne and Essendon, the company Carlton has kept in the bottom rungs of the ladder.

A decision now on the senior coach is too early and unnecessary, and they have already backed him in to coach this week. But with games ahead against Adelaide (at Adelaide Oval), Collingwood and Fremantle (at Optus Stadium), it is conceivable the Blues will be 1-6.

And it will continue to create uncomfortable times for Adam Simpson, the Blues' part-time coaching consultant who is also a regular media commentator across multiple platforms. On Friday, Simpson was calling the Blues game as part of his SEN duties and spoke of the Blues' panic as they saw a lead crumble again.

His name will continue to be thrust into contention for a return to senior coaching. And just as Voss will swerve questions on his future, Simpson will also be doing the same.

THE SMOTHER GUYS

HARRY Sheezel produced The Vossy Horror Show moment with his shimmy, baulk and then perfect shot for goal to send North Melbourne fans into raptures.

It's just a jump to the left. And then a step to the riiiiiight. The Blues put their hands on their hips ... OK, that's enough.

As much as the matchwinning goal from the young North Melbourne star was the defining moment of Good Friday's win, the effort of George Wardlaw to produce a diving smother on Francis Evans' shot at goal with less than two minutes to play was just as significant.

Wardlaw is the Roos' heartbeat – their loved, nonchalant yet manic warrior – and his fearless approach makes him a favourite of opposition supporters too. If he can play alongside Sheezel, Finn O'Sullivan, Colby McKercher and the improving Zane Duursma for the rest of the season, North will take more steps.

Wardlaw's smother was matched later on Friday by Freo skipper Alex Pearce, who also dived to thwart a late scoring attempt as his team hung on to a two-point lead.

Pearce's full body effort to smother James Peatling's checkside kick secured Fremantle a key win on the road and saw him mobbed on the siren by his teammates, who knew the importance of the act.

UNDERSELLING WILL

IT MIGHT sound ridiculous to say given his glittering CV, but is Will Ashcroft's excellence being somewhat taken for granted?

That can happen with a career that so quickly elevated to the very best.

Ashcroft has two flags and two Norm Smith Medals already in his back pocket but is driven to win stacks of premierships. His form over the past two weeks has made it clear he isn't resting on the laurels of his back-to-back success.

After being prodded by Lions coach Chris Fagan at three-quarter time to lift against St Kilda last week, Ashcroft had 16 disposals and four clearances in the Lions' final-quarter steamroll of the Saints.

Then on Thursday night, Ashcroft had 36 disposals, six clearances, 11 score involvements and kicked an incredible left-foot goal from the boundary line to be best afield in the Lions' rout of Collingwood.

Ashcroft is still 21 and has only played 62 games but this year, with more consistent full-on midfield time, will be aiming for his first All-Australian blazer. More showings like Thursday should get him there.

He was one of eight Brisbane players to be aged 22 or under in the win over the Pies (along with brother Levi Ashcroft, Logan Morris, Kai Lohmann, Ty Gallop, Darcy Wilmot, James Tunstill and Jaspa Fletcher) with Collingwood having only three (Ed Allan, Will Hayes and Oscar Steene).

The Pies' underbelly of talent without Nick Daicos compared to Brisbane's wealth of young emerging stars showed the difference between the squads – and why the Lions are going absolutely nowhere in the hunt for several more flags in this dynasty.

EAGLES' RUCK WOES

WEST Coast has a ruck problem.

Part of the reason to invest in Cooper Duff-Tytler as pick No.4 last year was seeing the exciting tall as the future of the Eagles' ruck division. But that responsibility won't and can't be shoved his way just yet.

Saturday night's wiping at the hands of Sydney again exposed the Eagles' battles in the ruck as Brodie Grundy ran riot, gathering 28 disposals, nine clearances, 33 hitouts and a goal.

It was a helpless task for Matt Flynn to be able to stop Grundy, who put in his most dominant showing of 2026.

The concern for West Coast is this is an issue they can't solve. Last year, opposition ruckmen tallied 68 AFL Coaches Association votes in games against West Coast. It would have placed the Eagles' opposition ruckman in 17th place for the overall total votes.

Already this year, Jarrod Witts has claimed eight votes in round one against West Coast, Tristan Xerri has claimed six votes in round two and Grundy will either be judged best or second best on ground to Isaac Heeney in the Optus Stadium rout this weekend.

INSIDE THE STARS' BENCH TREND

CLUBS managing their interchange bench has been a hot topic this year.

The extra player has thrown rotations into a spin and there have already been several cases, including St Kilda's Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera against Melbourne and Adelaide gun Izak Rankine against Geelong, where star players spent longer than anticipated on the bench.

The numbers say the best players are, on the whole, spending more time off the ground this year. Of the top ranked 49 players in the competition according to AFL Player Ratings, 36 had lower time on ground in the opening month than last year.

Whilst injuries to some key players have impacted the numbers, Champion Data shows the likes of Andrew Brayshaw, Ed Richards, Luke Jackson, Zach Merrett, Jordan Dawson, Chad Warner and Josh Dunkley are all down on game time by more than 3.5 per cent on last year.

For Brayshaw, that's an extra four or so minutes on the bench each game. For Dawson and Merrett, that has been about five more minutes off the ground, for Dunkley it has meant another seven.

Gold Coast captain Noah Anderson was averaging 17 minutes off the ground last year, averaging one stint off the ground a quarter, but that has lifted to nearly five rotations a game and 25 minutes on the bench.

Interestingly, it has been two of the competition's champion veterans – Marcus Bontempelli and Lachie Neale – who have been among the key stars to rise in game time, with both averaging more minutes on the ground and almost one fewer rotation a game.

The big take out of the data – which doesn't count round four's matches – is that clubs are still working out ways to manage the extra man on the bench. But coaches are starting to devise new plans for when key players get stuck off the ground in key moments of matches and how they can flip the magnets on the go to get them back on.