AFL.com.au's Callum Twomey takes a look at a conundrum at Adelaide, a Telstra AFL Rising Star contender sending a reminder and more in Cal-culations

WHY THE LONG ROAD IS ESSENDON'S ONLY OPTION

ESSENDON must not let pride get in the way of asking for AFL help at the end of this season.

The Bombers may not get it from League HQ, but asking for special assistance should be part of the club's end-of-year calls that are coming from all angles as the losses continue to mount.

Last year the AFL gave an extra end of first round pick to the Eagles, which they essentially used to trade for Brandon Starcevich while protecting their top-two free agency pick for the departing Oscar Allen. They also got four extra rookie spots.

That came after an historically bad period of 11 wins across their previous four seasons, but only seven years after they won a premiership.

North Melbourne received an assistance package at the end of 2023 that included three end-of-first round picks after North had claimed 12 wins over its past 84 games, while Gold Coast was given the best and most significant help from the AFL at the end of 2019 when it had tallied 19 wins across four seasons.

Essendon has now won one of its past 25 games after Friday night's defeat to Richmond. Even if it didn't win another game this year, its tally of wins-losses wouldn't look as dire over the past four years as those clubs, with so far it having won 18 of its past 67 games. 

The AFL has been building a behind-the-scenes model to be able to guide its special assistance decisions, as revealed by AFL.com.au this month, which will include around eight elements, such as games won, percentage and more measures over a rolling period, but there is still room to move on those calls outside of the framework. 

Not winning a final for 22 years might not make the table but says enough about the struggles – some of which were clearly self-inflicted, but most club crises are. 

Whether the AFL sees fit to help Essendon with draft assistance is another question, but the Bombers would be derelict not to ask as other clubs have. 

Many will say Essendon had its chance for more picks last year via the Zach Merrett non-trade and trading him this year would show that last year's Hawthorn offer was enough. The Bombers decided it wasn't, particularly given Merrett has been pre-paid a significant amount of this year and next year's contract. As their best player, the Bombers' price was high.

A year on, with Merrett a year deeper into his 30s and a year less left on his deal, the price will be lower this off-season given the former Bombers skipper, who tried hard to change the game on Friday night alongside Darcy Parish, is again being sought from the Hawks.

Broadly, Essendon's commitment to the youth-led strategy is the right one. It has jumped from plan to plan for too long and getting in five drafts of young talent, without deviating, gives it more of a chance than the see-sawing of draft, then trade, then draft, then trade under various coaches, football bosses, chief executives and presidents. 

No long-term rebuild is guaranteed to be successful but the Bombers have chosen the Adelaide model. They simply don't have the buffer of recent finals – or Grand Finals – success to be given time as Richmond and Hawthorn when they embarked on their list rebuilds. 

But there is no doubting Friday's defeat to the previously 18th-placed Richmond, with games against West Coast and Carlton in the next fortnight, places increased heat on the Bombers and coach Brad Scott. 

Essendon has been adamant in its support of Scott to lead its strategy, and the coach's reminder publicly last week that president Andrew Welsh and CEO Tim Roberts were on the board when their draft-led plan was devised in 2023 was pertinent that the Bombers were prepared to go backwards before going forwards. 

The board also extended Scott's deal until the end of 2027 on the eve of the 2025 campaign, 34 games ago, to add stability when seas got rough. 

Right now that boat is shaky. But it may be the first time Essendon has properly bottomed-out in the draft era (even in 2016 after finishing last the Bombers then traded their first-round picks away the following three seasons) and at this stage the No.1 pick will join a group of talented youngsters who have arrived over the past three off-seasons. Many of whom, including Nate Caddy, Sullivan Robey, Dyson Sharp, Jacob Farrow, Archie Roberts and Isaac Kako (when fit), have been depended on more than young players should. 

Even to the degree that when Friday night's clash with Richmond came to crunch time, it was the Tigers' bevy of older premiership players, who know how to win, who stepped up in key moments against an Essendon group of senior players who tried but don't have that same experience. 

It is another reminder that when clubs go on tough, long rebuilds, it is often the senior players who are most important in ushering the next wave through. Note Elliot Yeo's impact on West Coast during its rebuild whenever he plays against whenever he doesn't. 

Essendon has had five coaches since 2014, so traditionally has not weathered the storm and stared down mounting pressure. 

The focus, naturally, will remain on Scott, and even more so now as he tries to put together a competitive team with another deepening injury toll.  

BRISBANE BELTING RAISES QUESTIONS

THREE days ago Chris Fagan defended the questions on Brisbane's form.

"I understand the commentary and there's so many of you working in the media you have to come up with a story and making it sound like it's panic stations at the Brisbane Lions is one of the things that gets raised, but that's not the case inside the four walls," he said.

Perhaps the panic button might be dusted off now. 

Sunday's belting at the hands of Greater Western Sydney was either the day the music (and three-peat) died or the reality check that gets the Lions rolling again.

The Giants' incredible, record-breaking blitz saw them kick 14 goals in the third term, making it the highest scoring third quarter in history. The numbers are almost hard to believe from the quarter: 25 to 10 inside 50s, 125 to 66 disposals, 15 to three shots on goal, 36 to 1 scores from stoppages, 44 to 1 scores from turnover and a pressure rating of 230 to 156.

Toby Greene and Jake Stringer each kicked five goals in the rout, with Lachie Neale again Brisbane's leading midfielder. Last week Cal-culations detailed the drop-off in numbers for the Lions' top midfielders aside from Neale and again those key players battled for influence against a red-hot Giants outfit that put in its best game since Opening Round. 

Brisbane has had dips in its past three Grand Final seasons and managed to bounce back and it is too early to write them off, but after back-to-back flags maintaining the rage is always the toughest task. The rage was only orange coloured on Sunday.

MURPHY'S MAGIC 

MURPHY Reid is an All-Australian lock at the midway point of the season and he has quickly become one of the stories of the season.

The Fremantle game-breaker has become just that in only 35 games and he is crucial to the Dockers' flag hopes. 

Reid had career-highs for disposals (30), uncontested possessions (21) and pressure acts (20) against the Saints on Friday night, and tallied the second highest score assists (four), score involvements (14) and Player Ratings (19.2) of his short career. 

We could go on and on about Reid – and we will. 

His ability to bring teammates into the game is a huge part of his trick bag, and Champion Data ranks him equal fourth in the AFL for goal assists (14), equal fifth for score assists (20) and equal ninth (81) for score involvements this year. 

Reid thinks quicker and acts faster than most players on the ground, seeing options and possibilities where others see roadblocks. He is also already the game's best handballer – creative, damaging and able to use all parts of his hand to get different flight or pace on the ball. He would be an excellent wicketkeeper up to the stumps. 

The Dockers have retained possession from 60 per cent of his kicks into forward 50, which ranks him No.5 in the League of the top-50 kicks, and 50 per cent have led to a score (which is ranked fourth of that group).

Champion Data shows only Hawthorn great Luke Breust has had more score assists after 35 games in his career since Champion started recording the statistic, with Breust tallying 61 and Reid having had 58. Robbie Gray, who Reid shares strong similarities to, and Cyril Rioli both had 53 after 35 games. 

After every one of Reid's growing list of great games comes the question: how did he get to pick No.17 in the 2024 draft? 

The answer again is that clubs were concerned about his size and speed as a half-forward option and wondered whether he could be a midfielder at the top level. 

Some non-Victorian clubs also weren't sure how he would fare moving from home, a club concern that confused Reid at the time given he had made clear his ease with shifting states. 

In truth, Reid was faster than he had shown and didn't even test at the Draft Combine due to a late-season knee injury. Anyhow, there is no test that could show how footy smart he is, despite it being super clear upon each viewing. 

Chad Wingard, Nick Daicos and Jeremy Cameron are in the rare group of players to get an All-Australian guernsey in their second AFL season and Reid is on his way to joining them.  

CROWS' CONUNDRUM

ARE THE Crows using one of their weapons to best effect?  

For the first seven rounds of the season, Crows matchwinner Josh Rachele was played 67 per cent of his game time as a midfielder and 33 per cent as a forward. 

But that has flipped in the past three games, with Rachele moved almost permanently to the forward line – playing 90 per cent there and 10 per cent in the midfield.

He has gone from 54 per cent centre ball-up attendances between rounds one and seven, to just 11 per cent between rounds eight and 11. 

With Izak Rankine spending more time in the midfield in recent weeks, the Crows clearly have not been keen to have both in there at the same time. 

Offensively, this change of Rachele as a permanent forward has come at a time when the Crows have been ranked in the top four for time in forward half differential, stoppages in forward half, possession gains in forward half and points from stoppages in the forward half – so it has worked in that sense. 

But it feels limiting on Rachele, who had his lowest rated match against the Hawks last week and the natural evolution for him as looked to be around the ball more. Rankine's calf strain in Thursday's defeat to the Hawks will likely again change the dynamic of Rachele's role in coming weeks but finding the best spot for him and the team will be pivotal to unlocking how far Adelaide can progress this year. 

NORTH'S NEW SHINBONERS

HARRY Sheezel has said his two favourite players are George Wardlaw and Finn O'Sullivan. Harry wouldn't be alone after Saturday afternoon.

Wardlaw and O'Sullivan dragged North Melbourne over the line against Gold Coast at Marvel Stadium, with the Roos kicking seven goals to three in the final quarter to claim the most unlikely six-point win given they had not led at any point of the game siren-to-siren until Cam Zurhaar's goal after the final whistle. 

Wardlaw and O'Sullivan were drafted two years apart but carry all the same hard-edged, team-first qualities that make them favourites of not only Roos fans but the wider football fraternity. 

Wardlaw had 13 of his 19 disposals in the last quarter and was typically brave, willing and physical in a brutal final quarter that saw him have five score involvements. O'Sullivan had 12 of his 26 disposals in the last quarter and does any task that's asked of him. They are both the type of players who will win North finals when they get to the end of this long build – a time that isn't so far away. 

SMITH'S RISING STAR REMINDER

JAGGA Smith sent a timely reminder to Telstra AFL Rising Star judges. 

Smith was outstanding in Carlton's win over Port Adelaide on Saturday night, with the young gun midfielder having 27 disposals, four clearances and 15 score involvements. 

It was that last category – score involvements – that had him influence the game in a different way than he has so far in his short AFL career.

It was the fourth most by any player this year and the equal most by a player in the season they debuted since Champion Data started recording the statistic.  

Smith was handed responsibility to set things up in the centre square under interim coach Josh Fraser and he was central to the Blues' win. He has now averaged 23 disposals a game across this year, his first at AFL level after his debut campaign was wiped out by an ACL tear. 

At the halfway point of the season, there are only three players who can win the Rising Star – equal favourites Smith and West Coast's No.1 pick Willem Duursma, as well as Bomber Sullivan Robey. 

AND ANOTHER THING…

AS IF Scott Pendlebury's milestone game could have been played anywhere other than the MCG for a Collingwood home game. 

The Magpies' best laid plans were interrupted by his early-season injury, but there was no way the Pies could have celebrated as well, as brilliantly, as wholly, at the SCG last week against Sydney or at Marvel Stadium against the Western Bulldogs.

It had to be at the 'G and it had to be a Pies home game. 

Collingwood isn't winning the premiership this year and the 38-year-old Pendlebury was never going to play every game in his 21stt season. 

The crowd of more than 90,000 fans will not forget Saturday's celebration and it will be decades before any player gets close to Pendlebury's record – if anyone does at all.