1. Hawthorn

60 points (15 wins, four losses) 120.7 per cent

Their poor percentage leads to the unusual situation where the Hawks remain a game clear on top but need to win every game from here or run the real risk of dropping out of the top four entirely. Huge game looms at the MCG on Saturday afternoon against heated rivals North Melbourne at the MCG, and they face an anxious few days with concerns over form, fitness and Match Review Panel deliberations.

The run home
Rd 21: North Melbourne (MCG)
Rd 22: West Coast (Domain Stadium)
Rd 23: Collingwood (MCG)

Predicted finish: Fifth
Predicted final match-up: v North Melbourne, first elimination final MCG

2. Sydney Swans

56 points (14 wins, five losses), 144.2 per cent

Port Adelaide barely turned up to play on Saturday, giving the Swans a percentage boost they probably weren't expecting. It is hard to see them dropping a game from here to the finals, although North in Hobart in a fortnight shapes as tricky. The Saints this week and the Tigers in round 23 could afford them the opportunity to further boost their percentage. 

The run home
Rd 21: St Kilda (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 22: North Melbourne (Blundstone Arena)
Rd 23: Richmond (SCG)

Predicted finish: First
Predicted final match-up: v Geelong, first qualifying final, ANZ Stadium

3. Adelaide

56 (14 wins, five losses), 141.2 per cent

Back-to-back home games against Essendon and the Brisbane Lions served their purpose in terms of percentage accumulation, and the run and gun Crows might not be done with yet. All three remaining games are not just winnable, but by potentially large margins once again. 

The run home
Rd 21: Fremantle (Domain Stadium)
Rd 22: Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
Rd 23: West Coast (Adelaide Oval)

Predicted finish: Third
Predicted final match-up: v GWS, Second qualifying final, Spotless Stadium

4. Greater Western Sydney

56 points (14 wins, five losses), 140.2 per cent

No percentage boost for the Giants this week after a slogging win over Gold Coast and it cost them two spots on the ladder. They'll be pleased to be back at Fortress Spotless for the next two weeks after four weeks on the road, but the round 23 North Melbourne game will be for all the marbles in terms of the double chance and home finals. 

The run home
Rd 21: West Coast (Spotless Stadium)
Rd 22: Fremantle (Spotless Stadium)
Rd 23: North Melbourne (Etihad Stadium)

Predicted finish: Second
Predicted final match-up: v Adelaide, second qualifying final, Spotless Stadium

5. Geelong

56 points (14 wins, five losses), 137.1 per cent

The Cats gained a pair of fours against the Bombers on Sunday – premiership points and percentage points. And with Richmond and the Lions to come, they will get their chance to add more and chase the Swans, Crows and Giants in what is becoming a fascinating arms race to September. Round 23 against the Demons will be interesting given Melbourne's win there last year.  

The run home
Rd 21: Richmond (MCG)
Rd 22: Brisbane Lions (Gabba)
Rd 23: Melbourne (Simonds Stadium)

Predicted finish: Fourth
Predicted final match-up: v Sydney Swans, first qualifying final, ANZ Stadium

6. West Coast

52 points (13 wins, six losses), 131 per cent

Derbies can be tricky encounters, but thanks to the brilliance of Josh Kennedy, the Eagles successfully negotiated Fremantle to remain in sixth place. But they might need to win all three from here to stay there and keep the Western Bulldogs at bay, a doubtful proposition when you consider their remaining opponents are all top four clubs. 

The run home
Rd 21: GWS (Spotless Stadium)
Rd 22: Hawthorn (Domain Stadium)
Rd 23: Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)

Predicted finish: Seventh
Predicted final match-up: v Western Bulldogs, second elimination final, MCG

7. Western Bulldogs

52 points (13 wins, six losses), 116.1 per cent

Another fighting performance from the Western Bulldogs, who withstood an early physical barrage from North Melbourne to get the win that absolutely confirms their finals berth once and for all. The Dogs will start favourites in their three remaining games, but three wins probably won't get them into the top four. However, a home elimination final is theirs for the taking. 

The run home
Rd 21: Collingwood (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 22: Essendon (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 23: Fremantle (Domain Stadium) 

Predicted finish: Sixth
Predicted final match-up: v West Coast, second elimination final, MCG

• After the siren: Dees get it right, Hodge shows his age

8. North Melbourne

48 points (12 wins, seven losses), 111.5 per cent

That run home to the finals remains as daunting as ever for the Kangaroos, starting with the chastened Hawks at the MCG. It is the perfect stage for North to assert its finals credentials once and for all. The problem for Brad Scott's men is that the injury list isn’t abating any time soon and now Ben Brown and Scott Thompson face fitness concerns ahead of the Hawks clash. 

The run home
Rd 21: Hawthorn (MCG)
Rd 22: Sydney Swans (Blundstone Arena)
Rd 23: GWS (Etihad Stadium)

Predicted finish: Eighth
Predicted final match-up: v Hawthorn, first elimination final, MCG

The Roos have still not locked up a finals spot. Picture: AFL Photos

9. St Kilda

40 points (10 wins, nine losses) 95.1 per cent

Saints alive, Saints be praised, etc etc. St Kilda's finals hopes remain alive, but it will take three wins from here to get there and three losses from North to leapfrog the Kangas into the finals. If North loses to the Hawks on Saturday afternoon, then the Saints' game against the Swans a few hours later at Etihad becomes massive. The Swans will start the favourite, but the Saints love the fast deck and the closed roof at the Docklands. Bring your popcorn.

The run home
Rd 21: Sydney Swans (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 22: Richmond (MCG)
Rd 23: Brisbane Lions (Etihad Stadium)

• Around the state leagues: Who fired for your club's twos?

10. Port Adelaide

36 points (nine wins, 10 losses) 108.9 per cent

The maths give the Power a slim hope if they go undefeated and North drops all three from here. But the Showdown should put paid to their hopes once and for all.

The run home
Rd 21: Melbourne (Adelaide Oval)
Rd 22: Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
Rd 23: Gold Coast (Metricon Stadium)

• Forecast the road to the flag with the AFL Ladder and Finals Predictor 

11. Melbourne

36 points (nine wins, 10 losses) 102.6 per cent

Remember 1987? Demons fans do as their team made a stirring charge to the finals, culminating with that famous 'do it for Robbie' win at the Whitten Oval against Footscray. Three big losses by North and three big wins by the Demons, including Geelong at Geelong (where they won last year) and the Demons are in. Easy. 

The run home
Rd 21: Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
Rd 22: Carlton (MCG)
Rd 23: Geelong (Simonds Stadium)

• Fantasy form watch: round 20