KNOWING when to hold and fold injured or suspended players is one of the keys to winning.
Geelong star and one of the form players of the competition Mitch Duncan (MID, $845,000) is a prime example of a player who has a compelling case for both trade scenarios. On one side, it's a great opportunity to grab some cash from a fallen premium such as Josh Kelly (FWD/MID, $723,000) or Dustin Martin (FWD/MID, $564,000) and use the cash to upgrade a rookie to another premium.
On the other hand, holding would leave you with a unique premium for the round 13 and 14 byes while upgrading rookies around him. It's a really short-term pain for long-term gain moment that would leave you with a completed team faster. As for star Dog Adam Treloar (MID, $693,000), that decision has been taken out of our hands with the ball-magnet set to miss an extended period.
Bye trade tip: It's okay to 'pay up' for rookies who have demonstrated a high ceiling and in turn have good job security, especially while navigating the byes. Caleb Poulter (FWD/MID, $349,000) and Ryan Byrnes (MID, $337,000) are prime examples of this who both have the round 14 bye.
Remember that following this week's two trades, we will receive three trades for each week of the bye rounds. We should aim to use these to not only minimise doughnuts, but also come out of the byes with a better team than when they started. So try to avoid straight swapping premium players and aim to double downgrade and upgrade to benefit your team long term.
Round 12: Roos, Suns, Giants, Power, Cats, Hawks
Round 13: Tigers, Dogs, Eagles, Lions, Blues, Bombers
Round 14: Crows, Saints, Swans, Pies, Dockers, Demons
TOP FIVE PRICE RISES
- Caleb Poulter (FWD/MID, $349,000) +$61,000
- Ryan Byrnes (MID, $337,000) +$61,000
- Jordon Sweet (RUC, $332,000) +$49,000
- Riley Collier-Dawkins (MID, $337,000) +$47,000
- Tom Green (MID, $544,000) +43,000
TOP FIVE PRICE FALLS
- Ryan Clarke (MID, $457,000) -$61,000
- Trent Dumont (MID, $664,000) -$51,000
- Adam Treloar (MID, $692,000) -$50,000
- Brandon Ellis (MID, $736,000) -$47,000
- Shannon Hurn (DEF, $609,000) -$41,000
- Caleb Poulter (FWD/MID, $349,000) - 10
- Ryan Byrnes (MID, $337,000) - 8
- Nick Bryan (RUC, $195,000) -3
- Cody Weightman (FWD, $295,000) -3
- Ned Reeves (RUC, $195,000) -3
- Tom Rockliff (MID, $818,000) 192
- Brandon Ellis (MID, $736,000) 158
- Luke McDonald (DEF, $635,000) 158
- Dylan Shiel (MID, $722,000) 157
- Stephen Coniglio (MID, $670,000) 157
Rarely is the form player of the competition as unique as the Bomber ball-magnet. Coming off a score of 144 which gives him a three-round average of 131, only four per cent of the competition are enjoying his career-best form following a long overdue full-time mid role.
After a slow start to the season, the highly touted youngster has hit his straps and now presents as a value selection. Unfortunately, he will only have one game before his bye but his score of 114 and three-week average of 100 is a sign of things to come. He has a BE of just 33.
Ignore the inflated price tag, job security of our youngsters is going to be vital throughout the byes. Despite one of the hardest match-ups in the game against the Dogs, Byrnes utilised his strength to find space taking 12 marks for a season-high 108.
Also consider: Caleb Poulter, Cody Weightman, Aaron Hall, Lachie Hunter, Bailey Smith, Patrick Cripps, Dustin Martin, Isaac Heeney.
The young Dog rarely scores much more than a 50, but a 50 in the first round of the byes is huge compared to a dreaded doughnut. He has made an appearance in every game apart from one this year and given the injuries at the kennel this week he should hang around for two more weeks.
It was a disappointing return from the Tiger superstar, managing just 66 in a tough match-up with the Lions. Rest easy though, his opponents over the next five outings are some of the easiest to score against in the competition. He remains a bargain for non-owners.
The inspirational Pies skipper has been playing a variety of roles and his scoring has reflected that. In uncharacteristic circumstances, the star commonly referred to as 'Dependlebury' hasn't reached triple figures the past seven weeks. A chance for DPP.
Also consider: Mitch Duncan, Karl Amon, Dan Houston.
In a game where big scores were easy to come by, the loss of the Dog ball-magnet was a huge blow for his eight per cent of owners. Treloar suffered an early ankle injury and after trying to play through it, eventually succumbed, subbing out on 37. He lost $50K and has a BE of 154.
After a string of games where the Suns running machine was the form player of the competition, he has dropped off significantly and it's worth moving him on to stop the bleeding. He has a three-game average of just 69 and dropped another $47K after his score of 66.
Jordan De Goey
Firstly, thoughts with anyone who has been so injury-ravaged they still have the cold Pie sitting in their forward line. The only thing he has going for him is a good bye round, but that is a long time to watch him limp towards a score of 40 while dropping further in price.
Also consider: Anthony Scott, Tom Powell, Miles Bergman.