THE Smithy’s VFL season is now a race in 12 after Geelong’s sixth consecutive defeat left it probably too far back to make an assault on the top eight.

Casey Demons still hold a two-win lead at the top and Southport has a similar advantage over Brisbane Lions, but there is just 1½ wins separating fourth-placed Carlton and 12^th-ranked Sandringham after the Zebras rediscovered that winning feeling just in time.

Teams have just four or five matches to play, meaning the fight for finals spots is getting extremely tight.

Here is an updated look at who is likely to fill the available spots in the finals.

1^st, 14-0, 168.00%

STREAK: Won 14

LAST FIVE WEEKS: bye; def Geelong (11pts, GMHBA Stadium); def Port Melbourne (58, Casey Fields); def Gold Coast Suns (76, Austworld Centre Oval); bye

TO COME: Footscray (VU Whitten Oval); Northern Bullants (Casey Fields); bye; Carlton (Casey Fields); Brisbane Lions (Away, TBC)

SUMMARY: Undefeated and mostly unchallenged, the Demons only need two more wins to guarantee the minor premiership. Not the easiest run home, with the final round clash against the Lions shaping up to be a blockbuster.

PREDICTION: 17-1 (1^st)

2^nd, 12-2, 149.24%

STREAK: Won 8

LAST FIVE WEEKS: def Sydney (22, Fankhauser Reserve); def Box Hill Hawks (15, Box Hill City Ovak); bye; def Frankston (80, Fankhauser Reserve); def Northern Bullants (68, Genis Steel Oval)

TO COME: Essendon (Fankhauser Reserve); Collingwood (Victoria Park); bye; Gold Coast Suns (Metricon Stadium); Coburg (Home, TBC)

SUMMARY: The Sharks saw off a dangerous opponent in the Swans last week and likely need just two more wins to secure a top two spot and one to guarantee top four. The trip to Victoria Park and the Coast Clash remain huge games.

PREDICTION: 16-2 (2^nd)

3^rd, 10-3, 139.51%

STREAK: Won 5

LAST FIVE WEEKS: def GWS Giants (9, Blacktown International Sports Park); bye; def Footscray (25, Moreton Bay Sports Complex); def Collingwood (25, AIA Centre); bye

TO COME: Gold Coast Suns (Moreton Bay Sports Complex); Richmond (Swinburne Centre); Werribee (Moreton Bay Sports Complex); Sandringham (Trevor Barker Beach Oval); Casey Demons (Home, TBC)

SUMMARY: Beating the Giants was massive for their double chance aspirations, but the tough games keep on coming, with the QClash this weekend having huge ramifications for both teams.

PREDICTION: 15-3 (3^rd)

4^th, 9-5, 121.55%

STREAK: Won 1

LAST FIVE WEEKS: def Geelong (11, Ikon Park); lost to Port Melbourne (3, ETU Stadium); bye; def Coburg (4, Ikon Park); def Footscray (19, Ikon Park)

TO COME: GWS Giants (Ikon Park); Williamstown (Williamstown Oval); bye; Casey Demons (Casey Fields); Collingwood (Home, TBC)

SUMMARY: The Blues are back in the top four and whether they stay there is completely in their own hands. If they can beat a desperate GWS at home this week, they should stay there at least until Round 21. Still imagining the possibilities of that Carlton v Collingwood showdown!

PREDICTION: 11-7 (7^th)

5^th, 9-5, 114.78%

STREAK: Won 3

LAST FIVE WEEKS: def Port Melbourne (33, ETU Stadium); def North Melbourne (18, AIA Centre); def Richmond (4, Swinburne Centre); lost to Brisbane Lions (25, AIA Centre); bye

TO COME: bye; Southport (Victoria Park); Williamstown (AIA Centre); Sydney (SCG); Carlton (Away, TBC)

SUMMARY: Took care of business after a mid-game challenge against the Borough ahead of the bye, but now it gets tougher. Still needs to beat at least one of Sharks, Swans and Blues (as well as the Seagulls) to make the eight. Win two of those and a double chance becomes a reality.

PREDICTION: 11-7 (8^th)

6^th, 8-5-1, 112.18%

STREAK: Lost 1

LAST FIVE WEEKS: lost to Brisbane Lions (9, Blacktown International Sports Park); def Williamstown (18, Williamstown Oval); def Box Hill Hawks (31, Giants Stadium); bye; lost to Gold Coast Suns (56, Metricon Stadium)

TO COME: Carlton (Ikon Park); Sydney (SCG); Essendon (Giants Stadium); bye; Footscray (Home, TBC)

SUMMARY: Still need to win three of four to play finals. If they can’t win at Carlton, the Sydney Derby may well be an elimination final.

PREDICTION: 10-7-1 (10^th)

7^th, 8-5, 122.03%

STREAK: Lost 1

LAST FIVE WEEKS: lost to Southport (22, Fankhauser Reserve); bye; def Essendon (59, Windy Hill); def Sandringham (21, Lakeside Oval Sydney); def Williamstown (111, Blacktown International Sports Park)

TO COME: Frankston (Lakeside Oval Sydney); GWS Giants (SCG); North Melbourne (Arden Street Oval); Collingwood (SCG); Box Hill (Away, TBC)

SUMMARY: Had their chances against the Sharks but came up short with fourth spot on the line. The Sydney Derby and the trip to Box Hill could be the difference between a double chance or missing finals altogether.

PREDICTION: 12-6 (4^th)

8^th, 8-6, 119.76%

STREAK: Lost 1

LAST FIVE WEEKS: lost to Box Hill Hawks (7, Box Hill City Oval); def Coburg (62, Avalon Airport Oval); def North Melbourne (47, Avalon Airport Oval); lost to Port Melbourne (3, ETU Stadium); def Geelong (63, Avalon Airport Oval); def Richmond (37, Swinburne Centre)

TO COME: bye; Footscray (Avalon Airport Oval); Brisbane Lions (Moreton Bay Sports Complex); Essendon (Windy Hill); Northern Bullants (Home, TBC)

SUMMARY: Box Hill’s 10-minute miracle cost the Tigers a top-four spot and put them right back in the moshpit. Losses by two, three and now seven points stings, and there is now little room for error.

PREDICTION: 12-6 (5^th)

9^th, 8-6, 113.94%

STREAK: Won 1

LAST FIVE WEEKS: def Werribee (7, Box Hill City Oval); lost to Southport (15, Box Hill City Oval); lost to GWS Giants (31, Giants Stadium); lost to Footscray (48, VU Whitten Oval); bye

TO COME: Northern Bullants (Genis Steel Oval); bye; Frankston (Skybus Stadium); Geelong (Box Hill City Oval); Sydney (Home, TBC)

SUMMARY: The remarkable win on Saturday ended a form slump and set them up not only to make the eight but potentially even push for the four. Will now start favourite in their last four games – Round 22 could be for the double chance.

PREDICTION: 12-6 (6^th)

10^th, 8-6, 105.95%

STREAK: Won 1

LAST FIVE WEEKS: def North Melbourne (2, Arden Street Oval); bye; lost to Collingwood (4, Swinburne Centre); def Geelong (14, GMHBA Stadium); def Coburg (52, Piranha Park)

TO COME: Williamstown (Swinburne Centre); Brisbane Lions (Swinburne Centre); Northern Bullants (Genis Steel Oval); bye; Frankston (Home, TBC)

SUMMARY: Just clung on to a critical four points against the Kangaroos, which means nothing changes for the Tigers, with the Lions match likely to be the decider as to whether they play finals. There are a couple of potential banana skins though.

PREDICTION: 11-7 (9^th)

11^th, 8-6, 98.09%

STREAK: Won 2

LAST FIVE WEEKS: def Essendon (3, Windy Hill); def Frankston (4, Metricon Stadium); lost to Coburg (24, Piranha Park); lost to Casey Demons (76, Austworld Centre Oval); def GWS Giants (56, Metricon Stadium)

TO COME: Brisbane Lions (Moreton Bay Sports Complex); Port Melbourne (Metricon Stadium); bye; Southport (Metricon Stadium); North Melbourne (Away, TBC)

SUMMARY: Pulled it out of the fire at the death against the Bombers but still probably need to win either of their Queensland derbies to make the finals. Are they capable? Definitely.

PREDICTION: 10-8 (11^th)

12^th, 7-6-1, 95.25%

STREAK: Won 1

LAST FIVE WEEKS: def Coburg (28, Piranha Park); lost to Footscray (54, Trevor Barker Beach Oval); bye; lost to Sydney (21, Lakeside Oval Sydney); lost to Essendon (14, Trevor Barker Beach Oval)

TO COME: Port Melbourne (Trevor Barker Beach Oval); bye; Geelong (GMHBA Stadium); Brisbane Lions (Trevor Barker Beach Oval); Williamstown (Away, TBC)

SUMMARY: Keep the heart beating against the Lions but they continue to walk the finals tightrope, with one defeat being one too many. Will fancy their chances of staying alive at least into the bye.

PREDICTION: 8-9-1 (13^th)

13^th, 6-8, 99.90%

STREAK: Won 1

LAST FIVE WEEKS: def Northern Bullants (52, Skybus Stadium); lost to Gold Coast Suns (4, Metricon Stadium); def Geelong (56, Skybus Stadium); lost to Southport (80, Fankhauser Reserve); bye

TO COME: Sydney (Lakeside Oval Sydney); bye; Box Hill (Skybus Stadium); Port Melbourne (ETU Stadium); Richmond (Away, TBC)

SUMMARY: Come to the end of a tough streak of three interstate trips in five weeks on Saturday morning. Good enough to put a dagger in the hearts of any of the three contenders still on their agenda.

PREDICTION: 7-11 (15^th)

14^th, 6-8, 98.40%

STREAK: Won 1

LAST FIVE WEEKS: bye; def Sandringham (54, Trevor Barker Beach Oval); lost to Brisbane Lions (25, Moreton Bay Central Sports Complex); def Box Hill (48, VU Whitten Oval); lost to Carlton (19, Ikon Park)

TO COME: Casey Demons (VU Whitten Oval); Werribee (Avalon Airport Oval); Coburg (VU Whitten Oval); bye; GWS Giants (Away, TBC)

SUMMARY: With a bye still to come the Bulldogs are too far back to launch an assault on the top eight, but they can have a big say on who does with games against Werribee and GWS Giants on the agenda.

PREDICTION: 7-11 (14^th)

15^th, 6-8, 89.42%

STREAK: Lost 6

LAST FIVE WEEKS: lost to Carlton (11, Ikon Park); lost to Casey Demons (11, GMHBA Stadium); lost to Frankston (56, Skybus Stadium); lost to Richmond (14, GMHBA Stadium); lost to Werribee (63, Avalon Airport Oval)

TO COME: bye; Coburg (GMHBA Stadium); Sandringham (GMHBA Stadium); Box Hill Hawks (Box Hill City Oval); Port Melbourne (Home, TBC)

SUMMARY: A sixth straight loss means the season is gone for the Cats, but with three home games still to come, they will be confident of finishing the year strongly.

PREDICTION: 9-9 (12^th)

16^th, 5-9, 84.09%

STREAK: Lost 1

LAST FIVE WEEKS: lost to Collingwood (33, ETU Stadium); def Carlton (3, ETU Stadium); lost to Casey Demons (58, Casey Fields); def Werribee (3, ETU Stadium); bye

TO COME: Sandringham (Trevor Barker Beach Oval); Gold Coast Suns (Metricon Stadium); bye; Frankston (ETU Stadium); Geelong (Away, TBC)

SUMMARY: Will be looking at the next two games as opportunities to end a rival’s finals hopes and continue to build towards a 2023 September assault. All these games could be winnable at their best.

PREDICTION: 5-13 (16^th)

17^th, 4-10, 79.77%

STREAK: Lost 2

LAST FIVE WEEKS: lost to Gold Coast Suns (3, Windy Hill); bye; lost to Sydney (59, Windy Hill); def Williamstown (38, Williamstown Oval); def Sandringham (14, Trevor Barker Beach Oval)

TO COME: Southport (Fankhauser Reserve); North Melbourne (Windy Hill); GWS Giants (Giants Stadium); Werribee (Windy Hill); bye

SUMMARY: The Suns game was the one that got away but they are still looking dangerous down the stretch. Pushed the Sharks to the brink at Fankhauser last year, but this is a totally different situation.

PREDICTION: 5-13 (17^th)

18^th, 3-11, 68.19%

STREAK: Lost 2

LAST FIVE WEEKS: lost to Sandringham (28, Piranha Park); lost to Werribee (62, Avalon Airport Oval); def Gold Coast Suns (24, Piranha Park); lost to Carlton (4, Ikon Park); lost to Richmond (52, Piranha Park)

TO COME: bye; Geelong (GMHBA Stadium); Footscray (VU Whitten Oval); North Melbourne (Piranha Park); Southport (Away, TBC)

SUMMARY: Should be going to the Cattery after the bye with their eyes on a character-building result in what will be their 1800^th VFA/VFL match. The two games after that also look eminently winnable.

PREDICTION: 4-14 (18^th)

19^th, 3-11, 64.18%

STREAK: Lost 3

LAST FIVE WEEKS: lost to Richmond (2, Arden Street Oval); lost to Collingwood (18, AIA Centre); lost to Werribee (47, Avalon Airport Oval); def Northern Bullants (42, Arden Street Oval); bye

TO COME: bye; Essendon (Windy Hill); Sydney (Arden Street Oval); Coburg (Piranha Park); Gold Coast (Home, TBC)

SUMMARY: Went within a whisker of handing Tom Lynch a win on coaching debut, but the Tigers just escaped with their season. Could win anywhere from none to three of their last four.

PREDICTION: 3-15 (20^th)

20^th, 2-12, 68.32%

STREAK: Lost 1

LAST FIVE WEEKS: bye; lost to GWS (18, Williamstown Oval); def Northern Bullants (25, Genis Steel Oval); lost to Essendon (38, Williamstown Oval); lost to Sydney (111, Blacktown International Sports Park)

TO COME: Richmond (Swinburne Centre); Carlton (Williamstown Oval); Collingwood (AIA Centre); bye; Sandringham (Home, TBC)

SUMMARY: The one team outside the finals race who will have the biggest say in who does make it, with all four games against finals contenders. They will think all are winnable.

PREDICTION: 3-15 (19^th)

21^st, 1-13, 63.74%

STREAK: Lost 10

LAST FIVE WEEKS: lost to Frankston (52, Skybus Stadium); bye; lost to Williamstown (25, Genis Steel Oval); lost to North Melbourne (42, Arden Street Oval); lost to Southport (68, Genis Steel Oval)

TO COME: Box Hill Hawks (Genis Steel Oval); Casey Demons (Casey Fields); Richmond (Genis Steel Oval); bye; Werribee (Away, TBC)

SUMMARY: Needs to get rid of slumps within games such as the late drop off that blew the margin out against Frankston. It is still hard to see another win before the end of the year, but not impossible if they can string four quarters together.

PREDICTION: 1-17 (21^st)

Twitter: @BRhodesVFL

All Smithy’s VFL matches in 2022 can be viewed live and free. The VFL Match of the Round will be televised each week on Channel 7, with all other matches livestreamed via vfl.com.au and the AFL Live Official App. Radio station 3WBC will also again be broadcasting Box Hill Hawks matches.
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