THE business end of a Smithy's VFL season is finally upon us for the first time in three years, and what a mouth-watering first week of the finals we have.
Casey Demons saw their hopes of an undefeated season dashed by the Brisbane Lions last week, but they will still go into the Smithy’s VFL Finals Series as premiership favourites with two home finals at fortress Casey Fields, the first of which is against a Sydney team that secured its double chance on the back of five consecutive wins.
It is a Queensland Derby in the other qualifying final, where the Brisbane Lions will aim to repeat the last time they met Southport in a final – the 76-point hiding they dealt out in the 2019 NEAFL Grand Final, which makes them the only reigning premier left in the title race after Richmond missed out on the finals at the last hurdle.
There are also two exciting elimination finals scheduled for Sunday, with Gold Coast playing its first VFL final when it hosts the Box Hill Hawks on Sunday night at Metricon Stadium – the first time the two clubs will lock horns since the Hawks won by 56 points at Fankhauser Reserve in 2010.
But it will be hardest to take your eyes off Victoria Park on Sunday when Collingwood plays Carlton with everything on the line for the second week in a row – the first time they have met in a VFA/VFL final and the first time in any final since the Blues won the VFL/AFL Qualifying Final by 38 points way back in 1988.
Let’s look at Saturday’s qualifying finals and the history of clashes between the clubs.
1. CASEY DEMONS (17-1) v 4. SYDNEY (13-5)
1ST QUALIFYING FINAL
Saturday, August 27, 1.10pm @ Casey Fields
(Watch on Channel 7 and www.7plus.com.au, 1pm; Stream on AFL.com.au and the AFL Live Official App, 1.05pm; listen on Casey Radio 97.7FM, www.caseyradio.com.au, 12.30pm)
HEAD-TO-HEAD: Casey Demons 2-0
At Casey Fields: Casey Demons 1-0
Streak: Casey Demons 2
THIS SEASON
Round 11, June 4, 2022, at the MCG
Casey Demons 3.4 4.8 8.10 12.11 83
Sydney 1.0 4.5 4.8 6.8 44
Goals: CASEY DEMONS: S. Weideman, G. Gray 3, M. White, A. Moniz-Wakefield, M. Buntine, K. Chandler, B. Laurie, R. Steele. SYDNEY: J. Bell, C. Warner, W. Collis, H. Maguire, H. McLean, M. Roberts.
Disposals: CASEY DEMONS: T. Rivers 26, J. Munro 25, O. Baker, L. Dunstan 24, M. White 20. SYDNEY: L. Taylor 40, R. Clarke 33, W. Gould 26, J. Bell 25, B. Campbell, C. Sinclair, D. Stephens 22.
Coaches Votes: CASEY DEMONS: L. Dunstan 5, J. Munro 4, T. Rivers 4, C. Ellison 2, M. White 2, O. Baker 1. SYDNEY: L. Taylor 6, R. Clarke 5, W. Gould 1.
PREVIOUS FIVE HEAD-TO-HEAD
May 23, 2021: Casey Demons 12.13 85 def Sydney 6.9 45 (Casey Fields)
FINALS
Nil
PAST FIVE MATCHES
CASEY DEMONS
R22: 8.9 57 lost to Brisbane Lions 10.11 71 (Moreton Bay Sports Complex)
R21: 6.13 49 def Carlton 5.3 33 (Casey Fields)
R19: 18.17 125 def Northern Bullants 5.4 34 (Casey Fields)
R18: 9.12 66 def Footscray 6.7 43 (VU Whitten Oval)
R16: 11.9 75 def Geelong 9.10 64 (GMHBA Stadium)
SYDNEY
R22: 15.12 102 def Box Hill Hawks 6.9 45 (Box Hill City Oval)
R21: 10.7 67 def Collingwood 9.10 64 (SCG)
R20: 13.17 95 def North Melbourne 11.9 75 (Arden Street Oval)
R19: 10.17 77 def GWS 5.9 39 (SCG)
R18: 12.17 89 def Frankston 6.9 45 (Lakeside Oval Sydney)
SEVEN KEY MATCH-UPS
Adam Tomlinson (Casey) v Hayden McLean (Sydney): Tomlinson has been outstanding in the back half for the Demons, averaging 22.2 disposals, 5.9 marks, but he will have his hands full with the strong marking McLean, who has 7.1 marks per game – mostly contested – and has kicked 21.9, while also pushing up the ground. The Swans’ tall forwards are set to make the rebounding Demon defenders more accountable, including the next match-up …
Daniel Turner (Casey) v Joel Amartey (Sydney): These two match-ups could easily be reversed, but developing tall backman Turner (11.6 disposals, 4.4 marks) will need to be on his mettle whether he fronts up against McLean or Amartey (15.1 disposals, 6.8 marks), who has kicked 36.19 from 12 matches and is an ever present threat.
Jack Bell/Jake Spencer (Casey) v Peter Ladhams/Lachlan McAndrew (Sydney): It will be interesting to see if the Demons call on the experienced Spencer as they did in Round 21 or if they back Sam Weideman to do the back-up ruckwork against the Swans’ giants, who could also including Callum Sinclair, Amartey or McLean. Bell is a developing ruckman averaging 9.4 disposals and 17 hitouts while Ladhams (22.5 disposals, 5.3 marks, 20.7 hitouts) will be trying to force his way into the AFL team. McAndrew has it easier as a back-up option as he develops, which is where Casey (4.8 disposals, 9.8 hitouts) could look to get on top.
Luke Dunstan (Casey) v Matt Roberts (Sydney): Two midfield bulls who will drive the centre clearances for their team. Dunstan has been outstanding for the Demons with 24.7 disposals but will be looking to bounce back from a quiet 14-touch game against the Lions, while Roberts (23.5 disposals) is coming off 37 touches against the Hawks. Whoever gets on top will give their team the best chance.
Jimmy Munro (Casey) v Lewis Taylor (Sydney): The ultimate team man Munro (22.2 disposals, 8.3 tackles) missed the trip to Brisbane with an ankle injury and his team will be desperate to see him return to take on the in-form Taylor (29.7 disposals, 7.3 marks, eight goals), who will be refreshed after being rested last week against the Hawks. If Munro can silence Taylor, the Demons will be hard to beat.
Kade Chandler (Casey) v Harry Cunningham (Sydney): Chandler (17.8 disposals, 5.3 marks, 26.14) was a matchwinner until being promoted after Round 19 for the Demons and if he is eligible to return he will need to be stopped, while Cunningham (24.8 disposals, 9.5 marks) has become Sydney’s driving force off half-back and will make Chandler accountable in the other direction. But that does work both ways.
Mitch Brown (Casey) v Will Gould (Sydney): Brown (plus Sam Weideman and Jacob van Rooyen) provide a similar tall forward set-up to the Swans and their output will make sure Gould, Irishman Barry O’Connor and the likely returning Lewis Melican will have their hands full. van Rooyen (32.9), Brown (30.22) and Weideman (14.13) are a key reason the Demons are 17-1, but Gould (18.9 disposals, 5.9 marks) and Melican (11.1 disposals, 4.3 marks) are experts at closing ground and getting a fist on the ball.
SUMMARY
The Demons will be desperate to bounce back and reassert their premiership favouritism after lowering their colours for the first time this season against the Brisbane Lions at Moreton Bay’s Red Rooster Park. The Swans are healthy and in super form with five straight wins including a 57-point belting of top four contender Box Hill Hawks at Box Hill last week, but they are yet to seriously challenge the Demons over four quarters. While a win will bring with it the prize of a home preliminary final, defeat means a home semi followed by a trip to Queensland for a prelim should they get that far. The reward and punishment for winning and losing are poles apart.
EARLY PREDICTION: Casey Demons by 17
2. BRISBANE LIONS (14-4) v 3. SOUTHPORT (13-5)
2ND QUALIFYING FINAL
Saturday, August 27, 1.35pm @ Moreton Bay Sports Complex
(Stream on AFL.com.au and the AFL Live Official App, 1:35pm)
HEAD-TO-HEAD: Brisbane Lions 9-8
At Moreton Bay: Brisbane Lions 1-0
Streak: Southport 3 (last loss 2019 NEAFL Grand Final, September 15, 2019)
THIS SEASON
Round 10, May 28, 2022, at Fankhauser Reserve
Southport 2.4 8.5 12.9 16.12 108
Brisbane Lions 2.5 4.7 7.8 10.12 72
Goals: SOUTHPORT: J. Dawson, R. Gilmore, B. Gowers, J. Joyce 2, B. Crossley, T. Fields, R. King, J. Lockhart, T. Reeves, M. Selsby, J. Townsend, B. Woodcock. BRISBANE LIONS: B. Coleman 2, T. Abberley, W. Barry, T. Berry, N. Cockatoo, W. Fletcher, E. Smith, H. Smith, J. Tunstill.
Disposals: SOUTHPORT: J. Dawson 34, B. Gowers 30, M. Manteit 28, J. Lockhart, B. Woodcock 24, M. Willis 20. BRISBANE LIONS: R. Mathieson 37, E. Smith 23, T. Berry, M. Cox 20, C. Michael, D. Wilmot 19.
Coaches Votes: SOUTHPORT: J. Dawson 9, B. Gowers 6, J. Lockhart 3, B. Woodcock 3, M. Manteit 1. BRISBANE LIONS: R. Mathieson 7, E. Smith 1.
PREVIOUS FIVE HEAD-TO-HEAD
July 11, 2021: Southport 20.15 135 def Brisbane Lions 2.14 26 (Fankhauser Reserve)
June 19, 2021: Southport 24.13 157 def Brisbane Lions 7.8 50 (Fankhauser Reserve)
NEAFL Grand Final, September 15, 2019: Brisbane Lions 20.15 135 def Southport 8.11 59 (Fankhauser Reserve)
August 3, 2019: Brisbane Lions 26.16 172 def Southport 7.5 47 (Fankhauser Reserve)
July 7, 2018: Southport 7.18 60 def Brisbane Lions 8.10 58 (Fankhauser Reserve)
FINALS
2019 NEAFL Grand Final: Brisbane Lions 20.15 135 def Southport 8.11 59 (Fankhauser Reserve)
2012 NEAFL North Qualifying Final: Brisbane Lions 14.18 102 def Southport 9.13 67 (Coorparoo)
PAST FIVE MATCHES
BRISBANE LIONS
R22: 10.11.71 def Casey Demons 8.9.57 (Moreton Bay Sports Complex)
R21: 17.11.113 def Sandringham 13.10.88 (Trevor Barker Beach Oval)
R19: 12.6.78 def Werribee 9.12.66 (Moreton Bay Sports Complex)
R18: 12.12.84 def Richmond 8.11.59 (Swinburne Centre)
R17: 13.11.89 lost to Gold Coast Suns 13.13.91 (Moreton Bay Sports Complex)
SOUTHPORT
R22: 21.18.144 def Coburg 4.14.38 (Fankhauser Reserve)
R21: 12.13.85 lost to Gold Coast Suns 14.10.94 (Metricon Stadium)
R20: 6.14.50 lost to Collingwood 13.10.88 (Victoria Park)
R18: 12.13.85 lost to Essendon 13.9.87 (Fankhauser Reserve)
R17: 9.12.66 def Sydney Swans 6.8.44 (Fankhauser Reserve)
SEVEN KEY MATCH-UPS
Tom Fullarton (Lions) v Seb Tape (Southport): The Lions have shared the goals around this year, but Fullarton (13.3 disposals, 3.9 marks, 23.17) can take a game away from an opposition quickly. Former captain Tape (9.4, 2.6 marks) has been the staple in the last line of defence for the Sharks and is likely to get the key job.
Kai Lohmann (Lions) v Rhys Clark (Southport): Lohmann has oodles of potential as a developing forward and has threatened to tear a game apart with his marking and goalkicking ability. Southport’s run from defence is a key part of its success but stopping Lohmann will have to fall to one of them. Clark (14.4, 3.5 marks) could be the one.
Darcy Fort/Kalin Lane (Lions) v Fraser Thurlow/Brayden Crossley (Southport): Thurlow (12.5, 5.1 marks, 26.5 hitouts) is close to a return from a hamstring injury and if he gets up he and Crossley (15.2, 3.8 marks, 23.9 hitouts, 13 goals) it will make it a real challenge for the experienced Fort (17.3, 3.8 marks, 27.2 hitouts) and developing ruck Lane (8.7, 2.2 marks, 15.6 hitouts). Thurlow’s absence has been important in the Sharks losing second spot. Crossley is quality but if Thurlow doesn’t play this match-up tilts to the Lions.
Mitch Robinson (Lions) v Jacob Dawson (Southport): The prolific midfielders are the engine room to their teams’ premiership hopes, with Robinson (31.8, 8.4 marks, 5.4 tackles, six goals) finding his absolute best with 42 touches against Casey last week while Dawson (29.7, 5.1 tackles, six goals) has been the standout player in the competition all year. It will likely be a case of shake hands and see you later until the final siren.
Mitch Cox (Lions) v Boyd Woodcock (Southport): Woodcock (27.2, 4.7 marks, 20 goals) has produced a remarkable season and it wouldn’t surprise to see him challenge Dawson for the Doc McKenzie Medal. He is a highlight reel but is so much more than that as a dominant midfielder and dangerous forward rolled into one. Cox (19.4, 5.4 marks, six goals) has the athleticism and skills to go with him and is good enough to make him accountable the other way.
Ryan Lester (Lions) v Billy Gowers (Southport): Gowers (15.2, 3.8 marks, 29.21) hasn’t been at his best for most of the year but is still a matchwinner and will take a lot of defending. The job is likely to fall to experienced key back Lester (19.3, 6.1 marks) who has gone back in recent weeks, but the Lions will also need the likes of Tahj Abberley and Darcy Wilmot to provide support when Gowers gets his skates on.
Wylie Buzza (Lions) v Jacob Townsend (Southport): Buzza (12.8, 3.9 marks) has gone back in recent weeks but will need all his mobility to match Townsend (10.7, 4.0 marks, 35.19), who started the season like a house on fire but hasn’t been able to sustain it all year with suspensions affecting his momentum. But the 2017 Liston medallist can tear a game apart in the space of a quarter and Buzza will also need help from Abberley and Wilmot to keep him under wraps.
SUMMARY
A Queensland Derby to savour as the Lions and Sharks revive their NEAFL rivalry and although it is three years apart, it is two finals in a row for these two rivals. That last meeting in 2019 secured the Lions an undefeated premiership triumph in the most emphatic of fashion, winning by almost 13 goals. Since joining the VFL, however, it has been Southport which as dominated, winning the past three matches by an average of 84 points and two by triple figures. The home team is a different beast now though and has only lost one match at Moreton Bay in the past six years.
EARLY PREDICTION: Brisbane Lions by 10
Twitter: @BRhodesVFL
To thank football fans for their outstanding support throughout the 2022 season, the AFL is pleased to announce that entry to all matches in Week One of the 2022 Smithy’s VFL Finals Series is free.
Seven matches in the 2022 Smithy’s VFL Finals Series will be broadcast live and free on the Seven Network via Channel 7 and 7plus, including the 2022 Smithy’s VFL Grand Final. Viewers outside of Victoria can tune in to Seven’s Smithy’s VFL coverage via 7plus.
This week's Seven Network broadcast matches will be Casey Demons vs. Sydney Swans on Saturday and Collingwood vs. Carlton on Sunday. The match between Casey Demons and Sydney Swans will be broadcast on 7mate in Sydney.
All finals, including the 2022 Smithy’s VFL Grand Final, will be streamed live and free on AFL.com.au and the AFL Live Official App.
