FIVE ROUNDS rounds to play, eight finals spots available, 14 teams left in the race. Not everyone's going to be happy. Welcome back to The Run Home.
Essendon's loss to the Western Bulldogs on Friday night has proven costly, with the Bombers dropping to 11th spot with a game against Sydney, who sit just just two points behind, next weekend.
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Back-to-back losses from Port Adelaide has seen the race for the top two heat up, with Brisbane now just four points behind as both clubs chase a home qualifying final.
Fremantle can technically still make the eight but now sit 10 points outside the finals positions, so have been removed from The Run Home for 2023.
Who's in the box seat, and who's facing an uphill battle to finish inside the eight? Check out your club's finish to the season below.
Fremantle, Hawthorn, North Melbourne and West Coast have not been considered.
1. Collingwood
64 points (16 wins, two losses), 136.5 per cent
Two wins clear of second and three games in front of third, a home qualifying final looks all but secure for the Magpies. They do have some tricky games to come, however, starting with the resurgent Blues on Friday night before clashes with Geelong, Brisbane and then Essendon, with the latter potentially playing for finals on the last weekend of the home-and-away season. It would take a serious decline in form for the Pies miss out on finishing top from here. - Martin Smith
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The run home
R20: Carlton @ MCG
R21: Hawthorn @ MCG
R22: Geelong @ MCG
R23: Brisbane @ Marvel Stadium
R24: Essendon @ MCG
2. Port Adelaide
56 points (14 wins, four losses), 113.7 per cent
A heartbreaking loss to Collingwood, and a second defeat in a row, may have huge ramifications for Port Adelaide, with Brisbane now just one game behind in third spot. Both clubs have such a huge home advantage that a home qualifying final could well be the difference between reaching the Grand Final and not. The Power can't afford many more slip ups if they want to keep the Lions at bay, and it doesn't get much easier with the Showdown next week and a trip to Geelong a week later. But the good news for the Power is they still have their fate in their own hands, and the Lions still have Collingwood to come on the run home. - Martin Smith
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The run home
R20: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
R21: Geelong @ GMHBA Stadium
R22: Greater Western Sydney @ Adelaide Oval
R23: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium
R24: Richmond @ Adelaide Oval
3. Brisbane
52 points (13 wins, five losses), 130 per cent
The Lions' top two dreams are still alive following their win over Geelong on Saturday. Still a game behind Port Adelaide, although with a superior percentage, Brisbane has little margin for error, although its draw looks favourable. They have two tricky away matches in the next fortnight against the Suns and Dockers that they simply have to take care of, but the real season-defining contest looks like the round 23 blockbuster against Collingwood at Marvel Stadium. - Michael Whiting
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The run home
R20: Gold Coast @ Heritage Bank Stadium
R21: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium
R22: Adelaide @ Gabba
R23: Collingwood @ Marvel Stadium
R24: St Kilda @ Gabba
4. Melbourne
48 points (12 wins, six losses), 123.7 per cent
The Demons have put together three straight wins to boost their top-four aspirations and do not face a side currently in the top eight in their remaining five fixtures. With that in mind, pushing into the top two isn't out of question for Simon Goodwin's side, who are 8-1 at the MCG this season, where they play another three home-and-away games. The first among that is next week's clash with 10th-placed Richmond, who have their own finals agenda, along with ninth-placed Carlton in round 22, which appear their toughest remaining games along with their final round trip to 12th-placed Sydney.
WHO MAKES FINALS? Play the Ladder Predictor NOW
The run home
R20: Richmond @ MCG
R21: North Melbourne @ Blundstone Arena
R22: Carlton @ MCG
R23: Hawthorn @ MCG
R24: Sydney @ SCG
5. Western Bulldogs
40 points (10 wins, eight losses), 106.4 per cent
A big win over Essendon on Friday night has entrenched the Bulldogs in the top eight, but they are still among a squeeze for spots between fifth and eighth. They must now take on two teams – GWS and Richmond – who are fighting for a similar place on the ladder and two wins would all but ensure a finals berth. Both games will be at home for the Dogs, albeit one in Ballarat, and they will leave the state just once more for the home and away season, to face the Hawks in Tasmania. Their fate is in their own hands. - Gemma Bastiani
WHO MAKES FINALS? Play the Ladder Predictor NOW
The run home
R20: Greater Western Sydney @ Mars Stadium
R21: Richmond @ Marvel Stadium
R22: Hawthorn @ University of Tasmania Stadium
R23: West Coast @ Marvel Stadium
R24: Geelong @ GMHBA Stadium
6. St Kilda
40 points (10 wins, eight losses), 104.7 per cent
St Kilda's narrow win over North Melbourne arrested its slide of recent weeks, but the Saints have only had two victories since early June and those were against the woefully performing Roos and Eagles. Next week is 16th-placed Hawthorn and Ross Lyon will be keen to bank another win because it all gets harder from there. St Kilda needs to win three of its last four to be certain of a finals berth, but it's unlikely they'll be starting favourites in any of those games. – Howard Kimber
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The run home
R20: Hawthorn @ Marvel Stadium
R21: Carlton @ Marvel Stadium
R22: Richmond @ Marvel Stadium
R23: Geelong @ Marvel Stadium
R24: Brisbane @ Gabba
7. Greater Western Sydney
40 points (10 wins, eight losses), 102.2 per cent
The Giants end round 19 in the top eight for the first time since round one but face several fellow finals aspirants in the coming weeks. Matches against Essendon, Carlton and Sydney are effectively eight-point games and will have a huge say in whether the Giants feature in September. A date with top-four Port Adelaide is also on the horizon, and next week’s clash against the fifth-placed Western Bulldogs presents an excellent opportunity for the Giants to solidify their standing. – Sophie Welsh
WHO MAKES FINALS? Play the Ladder Predictor NOW
The run home
R20: Western Bulldogs @ Mars Stadium
R21: Sydney @ Giants Stadium
R22: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
R23: Essendon @ Giants Stadium
R24: Carlton @ Marvel Stadium
8. Geelong
38 points (nine wins, eight losses, one draw), 121 per cent
Saturday's loss to Brisbane is far from fatal, but it puts the Cats in a tricky spot. Their top four chances are almost gone, so the main aim for Chris Scott's men is to hit September full of running. Geelong, and the rest of the competition, are about to learn how serious the reigning premiers are in 2023, with back-to-back matches against Port Adelaide and Collingwood following a visit from Fremantle. No more trips outside Victoria for the final five rounds can only be a good thing. - Michael Whiting
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The run home
R20: Fremantle @ GMHBA Stadium
R21: Port Adelaide @ GMHBA Stadium
R22: Collingwood @ MCG
R23: St Kilda @ Marvel Stadium
R24: Western Bulldogs @ GMHBA Stadium
9. Carlton
38 points (nine wins, eight losses, one draw), 116.1 per cent
The reinvigorated Blues are back. Their comprehensive win over West Coast gave them an important percentage boost, which could prove valuable at season's end given three other clubs near them - Geelong, Richmond and Sydney - have also had a draw this season. On a five-game winning streak, Carlton's hot form will be tested in a big way next weekend against ladder-leading Collingwood. The Blues' final month is relatively kind with winnable games against St Kilda, Gold Coast and Greater Western Sydney and a match-up with top-four side Melbourne looming. In the Blues' favour is the fact they play all but one game in Melbourne on the run home. – Alison O’Connor
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The run home
R20: Collingwood @ MCG
R21: St Kilda @ Marvel Stadium
R22: Melbourne @ MCG
R23: Gold Coast @ Heritage Bank Stadium
R24: Greater Western Sydney @ Marvel Stadium
10. Richmond
38 points (nine wins, eight losses, one draw), 99.9 per cent
The Tigers kept their top-eight hopes alive with another close win, this time over Hawthorn after their final-minute victory over Sydney two weeks ago. They finish the round just outside the eight on percentage but a much sterner test awaits next week against Melbourne. The Tigers will have to beat at least one of the Western Bulldogs and St Kilda (and the Marvel Stadium hoodoo) to help fight their way through the log-jam ranging from fifth to 12th – Sarah Black
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The run home
R20: Melbourne @ MCG
R21: Western Bulldogs @ Marvel Stadium
R22: St Kilda @ Marvel Stadium
R23: North Melbourne @ MCG
R24: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
11. Essendon
36 points (nine wins, nine losses), 98.4 per cent
Friday night's 41-point loss to the Western Bulldogs has put a significant dent in the finals hopes of Essendon, which has now won just one of its past five games. While the Bombers still have likely wins against West Coast and North Melbourne on the horizon, it's not all smooth sailing. They'll need to post at least two wins from their other three against an improving Sydney, in-form GWS and top-of-the-table Collingwood. And now it's looking like they'll need to do it without important defender Jordan Ridley, making everything that bit more difficult. - Gemma Bastiani
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The run home
R20: Sydney @ Marvel Stadium
R21: West Coast @ Marvel Stadium
R22: North Melbourne @ Marvel Stadium
R23: Greater Western Sydney @ Giants Stadium
R24: Collingwood @ MCG
12. Sydney
34 points (eight wins, nine losses, one draw), 111.8 per cent
The Swans' past fortnight, which has included wins against the Western Bulldogs and now Fremantle, has put them back in the thick of a finals scrap. Cut-throat games are now a weekly occurrence, but looming clashes against Essendon, Greater Western Sydney and Gold Coast are all winnable. The form of champion forward Lance Franklin and senior midfielder Luke Parker is the key, and there is upside in a banged up Callum Mills, who refreshed himself on the wing against the Dockers. The Swans have shown they are capable of getting on sustained runs and can't be discounted just yet. - Nathan Schmook
WHO MAKES FINALS? Play the Ladder Predictor NOW
The run home
R20: Essendon @ Marvel Stadium
R21: Greater Western Sydney @ Giants Stadium
R22: Gold Coast @ SCG
R23: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
R24: Melbourne @ SCG
13. Adelaide
32 points (eight wins, 10 losses), 113.5 per cent
Adelaide's finals hopes are looking slim, sitting a win-and-a-half outside the top eight, meaning they'll likely need to go close to winning all five of their remaining games to make it. That five-game span starts with a Showdown with second-placed rivals Port Adelaide, who may be vulnerable having lost two in a row, while the Crows did beat them earlier in the year. If the Crows can win that, there's hope with home games against Gold Coast and Sydney and a trip to bottom club West Coast still to come. But the Crows also still have to make the trip to the Gabba to face Brisbane, who are unbeaten at that venue this season.
WHO MAKES FINALS? Play the Ladder Predictor NOW
The run home
R20: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
R21: Gold Coast @ Adelaide Oval
R22: Brisbane @ Gabba
R23: Sydney @ Adelaide Oval
R24: West Coast @ Optus Stadium
14. Gold Coast
32 points (eight wins, 10 losses), 92.3 per cent
Life just got a lot harder for the Suns, with Sunday's loss to the Giants making their path towards finals a steep one. Three games on the road is less than ideal, while next week's date with top-four side Brisbane presents a huge obstacle. The Suns will likely start favourites against North Melbourne in round 24, but can't afford to slip up in the intervening weeks against fellow finals aspirants Adelaide, Sydney and Carlton. – Sophie Welsh
WHO MAKES FINALS? Play the Ladder Predictor NOW
The run home
R20: Brisbane @ Heritage Bank Stadium
R21: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
R22: Sydney @ SCG
R23: Carlton @ Heritage Bank Stadium
R24: North Melbourne @ Blundstone Arena
