WITH just two wins from its past six matches, it's not a stretch to suggest Brisbane is playing below its absolute peak.

However, the reigning premier is still beautifully positioned in 2025, sitting third on the ladder ahead of Friday night's blockbuster against Geelong at GMHBA Stadium.

So, where does the truth lie; are the Lions really struggling, or is this downturn in results just part of the ebb and flow of a season?

Coach Chris Fagan has recently mused his team is being compared to last year's Grand Final performance, which is the closest they've come to football perfection under his watch.

Even the 14 wins from 16 matches post the bye to close out the 2024 premiership was anything but smooth.

It is easy to forget the struggles the Lions had during that run, in home victories over bottom-eight teams Melbourne, St Kilda, Adelaide and Essendon and when they limped over the line in Perth against an invigorated West Coast, who had just appointed Jarrad Schofield as its interim coach to replace Adam Simpson.

And then there was the seemingly annual goalkicking woes that cost them chances to wrap up a top-four spot in losses to Greater Western Sydney and Collingwood.

Rather, when thinking of the Lions of 2024, our mind flicks straight to the highlights of remarkable finals comebacks against the Giants and Cats and the all-conquering decider against the Swans.

They were an imperfect team that had a perfect patch of games.

Following a pre-season that was heavily disrupted by multiple players – Lachie Neale, Oscar McInerney and Eric Hipwood among them – barely training following surgery, the Lions surprised even themselves with a 5-0 start this this campaign.

Since then, it's been four wins, a draw and four losses, culminating in the wasted opportunities of the past fortnight against the Crows and Giants.

A deep dive into statistics provided by Champion Data show a couple of things about the season to date.

While the Lions are playing the game exactly the way they want by winning contest and owning territory, they are struggling to convert inside 50s (a problem they encountered in 2024 when placed 13th at the mid-season bye) and perhaps of most concern, are down defensively.

Let's start with the positives.

Winning the ball at contest and getting it inside 50 has been Brisbane's calling card since its successful period began in 2019, and this year is no different. With a midfield including Neale, Hugh McCluggage, Josh Dunkley and Will Ashcroft, the Lions are ranked first in the AFL for clearance differential and fourth for contested possession differential.

The result is fourth for inside 50s and sixth for time in front half, both slightly down from last season, but still among the competition's elite.

And if they're required to move the ball from the back half, they're still doing so with great success. The chip-mark game that characterised their flag run still helps move the ball from the defensive half to scoring opportunities better than any other team.

However, despite the nine-win, one draw, four loss scoreline to date, there are clear areas for improvement.

Much like the first half of last season, Brisbane is not only less efficient than they'd like going inside 50 – genuinely a mid-pack team in that statistic – but they’re struggling to retain the ball there.

Goalkicking has also come into the focus in the past fortnight when they scored just eight behinds from 10 shots in the final quarter during a loss to the Crows.

And again, last Saturday it was 31 scoring shots to the Giants' 22 in another defeat.

Brisbane is ranked 13th for goalkicking accuracy, but they were only 14th in 2024, so it's a hurdle they've cleared before.

One interesting nugget is that Champion Data's Expected Score – which is the ultimate 'could have been but wasn't' statistic – had Brisbane winning the past two matches by 31 and 28 points respectively. There's a saying about bad kicking and bad footy, but this is the largest combined differential over two consecutive losses since Expected Score has been tracked.

The primary area that would concern Fagan is his team's defence.

Last season, the Lions were the best team in the AFL for defending turnovers and fourth for defending the opposition's defensive-half chains to scores. The result was conceding the third least points in the competition.

Through 14 rounds, this year is different. They're bang average (ninth) for both defending turnovers and defending the defensive-half chains to scores. And not surprisingly they are - you guessed it - ninth for points conceded.

Last week's Pressure Factor of 152, although an outlier, was their second lowest ever in a game since 2010, a period that has included a lot of bad seasons.

With Jack Payne now missing for the season, the back seven will need some tweaking, but the above numbers show it's Brisbane's forwards and midfield that need to ramp up their intensity defensively.

Last season, Fagan's post-bye 'Dancing on Thin Ice' mantra centred on his team's bravery with ball movement and resulted in the ultimate success.

Regardless of the result against the Cats, the premiership coach might need an analogy focused on their defensive desire if they are to push for another flag in September.

They're in position, they're not far off and perhaps the concerning thing for the competition is Brisbane has a lot left to give.