IF GOLD Coast wants to avoid another "kick in the nuts" this week, a lot must change against Brisbane on Saturday.
With 12 losses from the past 13 contests between the clubs, including all three since Damien Hardwick has come on board, the Suns have not one, not two, not three problems, but … well, you get the drift.
While Hardwick used the above phrase to sum up his team's performance against Adelaide last Sunday, it's an experience they've repeatedly had against the Lions.
Aside from the outlier in 2023 when the Suns sprung a surprise, they've lost by an average of 41 points across that span of games.
And usually, the matches are over as a genuine contest before the fourth quarter.
Where have the Suns gone wrong and what can they do to change things?
The answer to the first question can be either simple or elaborate. The simple answer is 'everything'.
Brisbane has won the contested possession count 11 times, clearances 10 times and inside 50s 12 times.
When the Lions win contest and territory, they rarely lose.
Brisbane also loves to possess the ball. Champion Data statistics show that since 2021, Brisbane has won 71 per cent of matches when it's had 100 marks or more.
Against Gold Coast during the same period, it has averaged 108 a game.
Brisbane has been ranked in the top two in the AFL since 2021 for moving the ball from its defensive 50 to scoring. Against Gold Coast, it is more efficient than ever.
The Lions have outscored the Suns from clearance and from turnover by three goals a game in each category.
In a nutshell, the Suns cannot stop the Lions at contest, territory, ball movement or on the scoreboard.
But as Chris Fagan said in his pre-game press conference on Friday, that's history, and just like he's not bothered with what's happened in the past, nor is Hardwick.
How can the Suns upset the applecart?
Matt Rowell must beat Josh Dunkley
As outlined in an article on AFL.com.au earlier this week, Dunkley has put a blanket over Rowell in the five matches since he moved to Brisbane. With Touk Miller sidelined through injury, the Suns really need Rowell and skipper Noah Anderson to fire, not just for their output, but to inspire their teammates. Rowell was a beacon in the heavy loss to Adelaide last week and you know you'll get nothing less than 100 per cent from him. Hardwick needs not only his clearances, but his burst from congestion.
A big Ben King game
It's no coincidence that Gold Coast's one win against the Lions in the past 13 attempts came when King kicked five goals in round 20, 2023. That day he essentially played on Harris Andrews' back shoulder, trying to negate the dual All-Australian's intercept marking ability. With success further afield, King found space and capitalised with a big day. The raw numbers for Gold Coast's full-forward are good – 20 goals in nine QClashes – but with Hardwick dropping Jed Walter, more will be expected of the main man.
They simply must be efficient going forward
The primary problem against Adelaide last week came with Gold Coast's ball movement. They won enough ball, and even though the spread from contest wasn't at the usual high level, they went forward of centre enough to pressure the Crows – but the decision-making and kicking was horrid. Teams have shown they can be efficient against Brisbane when they win the ball back, it's just a matter of doing it often enough. GWS kicked 17.5 from 53 entries. Port Adelaide kicked 14.8 from 55 and the Bulldogs managed 12.4 from 44.
Jarrod Witts can lay the foundation
The Suns' former skipper is having an under-the-radar superb season. He regularly gives Rowell, Anderson and Bailey Humphrey a more-than-fair chance to win centre clearances and get his team going forward. Witts will face the Oscar McInerney and Darcy Fort combination that Brisbane will trial for a third straight week, and although the workload will be large, potentially in wet conditions, Witts is good enough to get his team on the front foot.
