AFL.com.au's Callum Twomey takes a look at why the Bombers should call Jarrod Witts, how Zak Butters is doing a Paddy Dangerfield and more in Cal-culations
ESSENDON'S DEFINING MONTH
ANDREW Welsh is about to enter the month that will define his presidency.
Whilst Essendon takes a week off for the bye, the club's leadership should be wasting no time to put together their plan to find Brad Scott's replacement.
The Bombers won't have their new coach within the month but they will have their plan settled and how that is set up is as intriguing and important as the final call.
Do the Bombers headhunt John Longmire and land a big name? Do they open up the process and interview a shortlist of candidates? Have they already got their preferred person in mind? Are rival assistants spooked or do they put their hand up? Does James Hird get the chance to present?
How the Bombers navigate their coaching search – who they speak to, who they don't and who they move forward with – will mark Welsh's tenure. And that's even before the new coach has a chance to prove himself as the right person, making this process as much about the how as the who – itself a quirk of Essendon as a whole. The Bombers should be considering all options.
If the chatter of Welsh earmarking interim coach Dean Solomon as a preferred candidate is accurate, the process has already fallen over. Welsh can admire his close friend as a prospective candidate, and it was the president who pushed Solomon to leave his board position to join Scott's coaching panel ahead of this season.
And his views on Solomon the coach – not the former teammate – have been made clear before, including in 2020, when Solomon was let go by the Suns as an assistant coach during the COVID cutbacks and Welsh (then not a member of Essendon's board) sung his praises on social media.
But Essendon has already picked from within. Its president is from its board. Its chief executive is from its board. Its current interim senior coach is from its board.
It needs to open up to all candidates and test the field and find the big ideas outside of its current four walls. Club champion and former coach Hird's appeal for the job on Footy Classified last month came with the concession that all he wanted was there to be a process and for the best person to win.
Soon enough Welsh and Hird will talk about whether that includes Hird or not, but it should. The Bombers' hierarchy should not be closed off to any possibilities and Hird's return to Essendon would bring weight, resonance, relevance as well as a hunger to get the club right.
All of that – as well as the work he has done at Port Melbourne in the VFL and Greater Western Sydney before that – should not be discounted. Neither should factoring in a coach who is prepared and able to wear three more years of pain, because the Bombers' return to the finals is not close and although their list plan is the right and only way, they are still a long road away from the finals.
Essendon's defeat to Melbourne on Saturday was yet another reminder of that distance. When the game was there to be won in the first half, the Demons were barely troubled and, not for the first time this year, when the game was over, the Bombers performed better in the third term.
Solomon is working with the same injury-hit, inexperienced list that Scott had at his disposal and the same issues, despite some positional switches, remain. They were always going to. Had Scott lost the last three games like Solomon has, then the pressure meter would have been extreme on him after each weekend.
But now the pressure meter now is firmly fixed on Welsh, his board and his chief executive Tim Roberts as they walk the tightrope to land the coaching appointment that will define their leadership and already comes with the most politicised backdrop imaginable.
THUMBS DOWN TO THE SUNS
THE ROMAN Colosseum would be giving the thumbs down to the Suns right now.
The Suns started the year as the Gold Coast gladiators but their past three weeks have put them in a hole that will be difficult to climb out of if they don't get moving fast.
Since their back-to-back wins in Darwin, Gold Coast's offensive and defensive game has dropped away dramatically. Between Opening Round and round 10, the Suns led the competition for streaks of five or more goals (eight times) but they haven't managed that just once since round 11.
Their turnover game has gone in rewind, ranking second in the AFL for turnover score differential to round 10 and 14th over the past three weeks, while they simply can't keep the ball inside 50.
They aren't the first and won't be the last team to head to GMHBA Stadium and lose; in fact, they are the 10th in a row to lose to the Cats at home. But amidst the frustrations about the umpiring – which coach Damien Hardwick and captain Noah Anderson both made clear post-game – the bigger worry for the club will be its own form as it heads into a crunch period.
They end this round ninth on the ladder and their next six weeks is a tough block: Hawthorn (at home), Fremantle (at Optus Stadium), Collingwood (home), Adelaide (at Adelaide Oval) and the Western Bulldogs (home).
After entering the season on the back of last year's semi-final appearance and the addition of superstar Christian Petracca, the Suns are in danger of letting a flat patch ruin their campaign. The impact of several players within the group considering their futures – including free agent Ben King, young forward Jed Walter and dynamic forward Bailey Humphrey – adds to the uncertainty, with King's call to set off a huge ripple effect across the competition, wherever he lands.
WHY DONS SHOULD BE CALLING SUN
ESSENDON list boss Matt Rosa should be giving Jarrod Witts a call.
The Bombers have one of the thinnest ruck divisions in the AFL and after Gold Coast dropped its former captain and handed the reigns to Ned Moyle, Witts should be considered.
Essendon has missed Peter Wright since he went down a month ago with a knee injury, seeing Nick Bryan take the responsibility. Earlier in the year, Lachie Blakiston also was thrown into the ruck role.
Bryan tried against Max Gawn on Saturday, having 24 hit-outs, but Gawn was dominant around the ground with 23 disposals, 10 clearances and two big goals.
A player of Witts' experience may or may not make much of a difference against the likes of Gawn, but Essendon has struggled for influence out of the ruck for most of the year.
Bryan is still getting back from his ACL injury last year, with next season his eighth in the AFL system.
Witts, 33, is out of contract and as an unrestricted free agent, he can make a call on his future and walk to a club for free, if he is to consider his future.
Rosa has a strong relationship with Witts, with the pair former teammates at the Suns, and Witts shapes as a ruck option for clubs this off-season. Collingwood, too, would be wise to consider Witts as a ready-to-go ruckman on call.
Richmond would also be a fit, but the Tigers are believed to have a ruckman already locked in, having been linked to both of GWS pair Kieren Briggs and Nick Madden.
HOW DOES NICKS NAVIGATE HIS MIX?
MATTHEW Nicks' challenge is now putting all the pieces together.
With Izak Rankine expected to return from his calf injury against Melbourne, the Crows get a key member of their push back. But how does the best mix work for last year's minor premiers?
Nicks has been reluctant to use Rankine and fellow forward half weapon Josh Rachele in the midfield together. Rankine played more than 95 per cent of his game time in the midfield in his four games before injury, but given his soft-tissue setbacks he would likely spend some time in attack upon easing back into the team.
However, Rachele as a near permanent forward has come in Adelaide's best run of form of the year. Since round seven, he leads the Crows for goals (12), scoreboard impact and score assists, and is No.2 at the club for disposals inside 50 and No.3 for inside 50 targets.
Champion Data shows across this year the Crows have scored 53.8 per cent of the time they have targeted Rachele inside 50, which has him ranked No.10 in the AFL for the top 75 targets.
Rachele was – along with many of his teammates – at his best on Thursday night in the Crows' hit-and-run mission against the Western Bulldogs, which saw Adelaide win by 57 points and restore their powerful mode of last year.
They have won five of their past six games and seven of their past nine and are now in a position to launch a tilt at a top-four spot.
Rachele's four goals took his tally to 22 for the year (and there is no player who enjoys a goal more than the 23-year-old) and it ranked as his second-highest rated game of the season, according to Champion Data.
Getting the balance right between Rankine and Rachele – up the ground and in a stacked forward line – will be crucial for Nicks as the Crows start to power up.
BUTTERS' BRILLIANCE – ON AND OFF THE FIELD
ZAK Butters is handling his contract year as well as any player since Patrick Dangerfield in 2015. That might be hard to stomach for Port Adelaide fans, knowing Butters is set to depart at the end of the year like Dangerfield did then, but the gun midfielder is giving his absolute all to the Power cause.
Butters could not have handled his free agency year any better. While players around the competition avoid doing any media or answering questions about their futures in far less scrutinised decisions than his, the Power stand-in captain has fronted up week after week and spoken about the challenge of his big decision and the pull of home.
Where other players waver in such scenarios, Butters' performances have lifted again. Saturday night's loss to Sydney saw Butters ranked the second-best player on the ground in Champion Data's player ratings – his 13th consecutive game of being in the top five on the ground. The record, which he is now hunting, is 16.
He is on track to win his fourth consecutive best and fairest and should also claim his third All-Australian guernsey. He should have been going for four in a row for that, too, if he hadn't been bizarrely overlooked last year.
Taking on the captaincy for most of the year in Connor Rozee's absence has seen Butters have to lead the team, and it is a natural fit for him. A leadership position will be part of the pitches rivals will be throwing at him.
Dangerfield, like Butters, had one of his career years in his final season in Adelaide, when he claimed the Crows' best and fairest and was an All-Australian. He, like Butters, had long felt the draw of home. He, like Butters, continued to handle his situation respectfully and maturely whilst playing outstanding football.
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera last year and Dustin Martin in 2017 played incredibly in their contract seasons to have their value skyrocket, but they weren't captain of their respective teams and didn't do the regular media that Butters has done this year nor Dangerfield did in 2015, which sets them apart.
Former Port coach Ken Hinkley called it on the Fox Footy commentary on Saturday night; when the game was on the line between Port Adelaide and Sydney, both teams' superstars stepped up.
Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner, Cal Mills and Brodie Grundy did it for the Swans and saw them hold on, while Butters, Mitch Georgiades and Jason Horne-Francis lifted for the Power. The three-point margin could have easily gone the other way.
DON'T FORGET HARRY
A REMINDER – Harry Sheezel is still 21.
When you play with the type of consistency that Sheezel has since day one of his AFL career, you can sometimes be taken a little for granted.
But Sheezel put together one of the best of his 80 AFL games on Saturday against the Eagles, tallying a game-high 32 disposals and nine inside-50s, and equal game-highs in clearances (nine) and score involvements (nine). It was his 44th straight game of 20 or more disposals.
The Roos' vice-captain has already won two best and fairests and come runner up once and is on track for another top-three finish this season and he was important as North somehow held on against the Eagles.
Jake Waterman will rue his set shot miss but he wasn't alone in the Eagles' run of chances that went wanting in the final quarter as West Coast made a late charge.
While some of the game's young superstars rightly get their fair share of attention, Sheezel sometimes doesn't get his dues. He deserves them, if nothing else than for helping the Roos avoid a WA disaster.
PULL THE RUG ON THE SHRUG
THE memo went out to clubs last October about the seven new rule interpretations for 2026.
One was that a shrug in a tackle would now be deemed prior opportunity, and viewed in the same way that a fend or an attempt to evade a tackle is deemed prior opportunity.
It's time to shine the spotlight on that one.
We are still seeing too many players rewarded for high tackle free kicks when they have shrugged tackles, including on Saturday when Kozzy Pickett won a free kick for a high tackle when Archie Roberts attempted to stop the Melbourne superstar.
That Roberts dislocated his shoulder in the motion is beside the point. Pickett, in a bid to evade the tackle, dropped closer to the ground and caught the high contact. It was part shrug and part knee drop, and the reality is it was not an uncommon move for players who know their chances of getting a free kick rise.
It's a tactic players continue to use, when the shrugging crackdown at the start of the year was hoped to stop players from contributing to the high tackle.
Given the scary incident just last week with Brody Mihocek's fracturing his neck in a tackle – and how close it was to a much worse, life-changing injury – if there's a 'rule of the week', let's make it this one.
