GIVEN the circumstances surrounding Essendon, making a sensible analysis of its on-field woes is difficult.
Assumptions are easy: the WADA appeal, the draft penalties, unorthodox pre-seasons, Paddy Ryder and Stewart Crameri's departures, injuries to key players and continual scrutiny must take a toll, but none can be fixed.
What can potentially be fixed is the style of play that has made Essendon appear disorganised and led to three consecutive weeks of low scoring not seen at the club since rounds 11-13, 1989 when the Bombers scored just 113 points (compared to 158 in the past three games).
More Numbers Game with Peter Ryan
The biggest change in the past month has been the Bombers’ willingness to play-on after a mark.
They have moved from playing on after a mark an average of 30.35 per cent of the time in the first four rounds to 43.4 per cent over the past four rounds.
They are now second in the competition for play-on after a mark percentage.
The shift happened after the Bombers’ Anzac Day loss to Collingwood when their ball movement appeared stagnant and their switching of play was countered.
They scored just 49 points so tok a different tack against St Kilda, playing on after a mark 44.2 per cent of the time.
Such a shift was reasonable but the structure needed to follow.
That hasn't happened.
Essendon’s forwards and midfielders collapse back to defend well as a group, but don't transition forward quickly enough to give the kicker an outlet.
In fact they seem to disappear in a puff of smoke.
With an inexperienced forward line – apart from Paul Chapman – and no real support from a ruckman, the kicker rarely has a player forward of the action that draws the ball.
Experienced defenders are letting their Essendon opponents push into defence to help out.
They then rely on their teammates to put enough pressure on in attack to ensure there’s enough uncertainty in the ball carrier's mind to make him handball, go backwards, or cough it up.
Hence the Bombers are ranked second for disposals differential in the past four rounds but can't score, their 15.1 metres average gained per disposal for the year is the fourth worst in the competition.
Their kick-to-handball ratio of 1.2:1 is 15th and their stoppage numbers inside 50 have plummeted, as they can't trap the ball in. No wonder Chapman is struggling as scraps from stoppages are his bread and butter.
The Bombers concede more scores after an interception than 12 other teams and often lose the ball in the midfield.
They might have improved their scores once inside 50 since the change but they are not going inside enough.
Poise is needed. The accelerator pedal needs to be worked according to need.
Defenders and midfielders need to be trusted to win contests and absorb pressure in the back half.
Jake Carlisle needs to measure his performance on whether he can provide an outlet from the back half and it's worth considering Jonathan Giles to lend support up forward. If his problem is running power at least he will be forward of the football in transition.
Easier said than done of course but the Bombers have managed to do so under James Hird before and can regroup during the bye.
At the corresponding point in 2012 and 2013, Essendon had won eight and lost three.
Its contested possession numbers were high and the Bombers led the competition for inside 50s.
Their scores per inside 50 were around 49 per cent in that time but have dropped to 41 per cent in 2015.
They were a good clearance team but they are ranked 17th in that statistic this season and in 2012 they led the competition at this stage for metres gained per disposal.
Interestingly their mark and play-on percentage at that time was still high in competition terms at 38.3 per cent but well below their frenetic football in the past four weeks of playing on after a mark 47.2 per cent of the time.
And they have always attacked through the corridor under Hird.
The Bombers have plenty out of their control at the moment but their speed of ball movement is one thing they can control.
And their forwards need to return home inside 50 once they leave.
The problems are not insurmountable but they need to be corrected quickly.
The bye is a good time for reflection.
ESSENDON'S MARK/PLAY-ON PERCENTAGE IN 2015
R1 v Sydney Swans: 30.0%
R2 v Hawthorn: 36.8%
R3 v Carlton: 28.7%
R4 v Collingwood: 25.9%
R5 v St Kilda: 44.2%
R6 v Fremantle: 37.9%
R7 v North Melbourne: 39.8%
R8 v Brisbane Lions: 46.2%
R9 v Richmond: 34.0%
R10 v Geelong: 48.4%
R11 v West Coast: 45.0%
Stats supplied by Champion Data
