THE business end of a season is finally upon us for the first time in three years, and what an exciting first week of the finals we have.
Casey Demons saw their hopes of an undefeated season dashed by the Brisbane Lions last week, but they will still go into the Smithy’s VFL finals as premiership favourites with two home finals at Fortress Casey Fields, the first of which is against a Sydney team that secured its double chance on the back of five consecutive wins.
It is a Queensland Derby in the other qualifying final, where the Brisbane Lions will aim to repeat the last time they met Southport in a final – the 76-point hiding they dealt out in the 2019 NEAFL Grand Final, which makes them the only reigning premier left in the title race after Richmond missed out on the finals at the last hurdle.
There are also two exciting elimination finals scheduled for Sunday, with Gold Coast playing its first VFL final when it hosts the Box Hill Hawks on Sunday night at Metricon Stadium.
But it will be hardest to take your eyes off Victoria Park on Sunday when Collingwood plays Carlton with everything on the line for the second week in a row – the first time they have met in a VFA/VFL final and the first time in any final since the Blues won the VFL/AFL Qualifying Final by 38 points way back in 1988.
Let’s look at Saturday’s qualifying finals and the history of clashes between the clubs.
6.COLLINGWOOD (11-7) v 7.CARLTON (11-7)
2ND ELIMINATION FINAL
Sunday, August 28, 1.10pm @ Victoria Park
(Channel 7 and www.7plus.com.au, 1pm; Stream on AFL.com.au and the AFL Live Official App, 1pm)
HEAD-TO-HEAD: Collingwood 9-6
At Victoria Park: Collingwood 6-3
Streak: Carlton 2 (last loss March 26, 2000)
THIS SEASON
Round 22, August 21, 2022
Carlton 3.3 4.5 5.7 7.9 51
Collingwood 1.4 4.5 5.7 5.11 41
Goals: CARLTON: N. Cahill 3, B. Kemp 2, B. Crocker, J. Honey. COLLINGWOOD: J. Carmichael 2, I. Chugg, S. Glover, J. Madgen.
Disposals: CARLTON: A. Cincotta, W. Hayes 26, P. Dow 24, J. Trudgeon 23, J. Carroll 22. COLLINGWOOD: C. Brown 36, T. Ruscoe 30, L. Tardrew 28, C. Poulter 26, N. Jetta 23, W. Kelly 21, T. Bianco 20, J. Carmichael 20.
PREVIOUS FIVE HEAD-TO-HEAD
July 7, 2000: Carlton 21.9 135 def Collingwood 11.8 74 (Princes Park)
March 26, 2000: Collingwood 20.12 132 def Carlton 20.10 130 (MCG)
September 12, 1896: Collingwood 9.15 def Carlton 1.3 (Victoria Park)
May 30, 1896: Collingwood 4.8 def Carlton 3.11 (University Oval)
September 14, 1895: Collingwood 7.6 def Carlton 3.1 (Victoria Park)
PREVIOUS FINALS
Nil
PAST FIVE MATCHES
COLLINGWOOD
R22: 5.11 41 lost to Carlton 7.9 51 (MCG)
R21: 9.10 64 lost to Sydney 10.7 67 (SCG)
R20: 22.8 140 def Williamstown 9.8 62 (AIA Centre)
R19: 13.10 88 def Southport 6.14 50 (Victoria Park)
R17: 16.12 108 def Port Melbourne 11.9 75 (ETU Stadium)
CARLTON
R22: 7.9 51 def Collingwood 5.11 41 (MCG)
R21: 5.3 33 lost to Casey Demons 6.13 49 (Casey Fields)
R19: 8.10 58 lost to Williamstown 11.6 72 (Williamstown Football Ground)
R18: 13.17 95 def GWS 9.4 58 (Ikon Park)
R17: 10.10 70 def Geelong 9.5 59 (Ikon Park)
SEVEN KEY MATCH-UPS
Liam McMahon (Collingwood) v Ben Crocker (Carlton): Underrated down back, McMahon (average 15.3 disposals, 5.0 marks) was critical in almost getting his team over the line against Sydney and allowing the rebounders to do their thing. Crocker (13.9, 5.5 marks, 33.34) was held to just one goal by the Magpies’ defence last week and will be desperate to bounce back, while also fixing his accuracy issues.
Neville Jetta (Collingwood) v Ned Cahill (Carlton): Jetta has the experience and pace to quell the Blues’ goalsneak (14.8, 4.8 marks, 26.15), who got off the chain with a matchwinning three majors at the MCG. Playing assistant coach Jetta (17.4, 4.7 marks) provides wonderful leadership and if he can do this job and release Trey Ruscoe at the same time, the Magpies will be well on their way.
Caleb Poulter (Collingwood) v Will Hayes (Carlton): The two wingmen provide terrific link-up and drive for their teams, with Poulter (21.8, 5.1 marks) dangerous on the outside with his ability to find space and use the ball going forward and 100-VFL gamer Hayes (30.3, 5.9 marks, 4.3 tackles) being a quality player his team loves to use in transition.
Callum Brown (Collingwood) v Paddy Dow (Carlton): Prolific at VFL level and extremely dangerous with ball in hand, Brown (26.4, 5.6 tackles) was immense with 36 touches last week and will need to be watched if the Blues are to repeat their victory. Dow (28.1, 3.3 tackles, 15 goals) will be an odds-on favourite to win Carlton’s best-and-fairest award and his ability to get forward and kick goals could be the difference in a tight game.
Lachie Tardrew (Collingwood) v Joel Trudgeon (Carlton): Two players who have been underrated outside their own clubs (but not here on vfl.com.au!). The Magpie co-captain (21.2, 4.3 marks, 5.0 tackles) gets the job done without any fanfare while bobbing up with eight goals, while Trudgeon (21.6, 7.3 tackles) has produced a breakout season for the Blues, doing the gruntwork and allowing the likes of Dow and Hayes to do the damage on the outside.
Josh Carmichael (Collingwood) v Alex Cincotta (Carlton): NAB AFL Mid-Season Rookie Draft addition Carmichael (23, 5.3 marks, 5.8 tackles) has only played four VFL games but has been a terrific addition and booted his first two VFL goals last week. He will need to be watched closely by either Stefan Radovanovic (16.2, 5.1 marks) and Cincotta (20.8 disposals). However, if Carmichael doesn’t keep his own eye on the Blues’ rebounders, he could easily be hurt the other way.
Ollie Henry (Collingwood) v Sam Durdin (Carlton): Henry (22 goals) can rip a game open in the space of a quarter and can be expected to return to the Magpies’ team keen to bounce back after being held goalless by Sydney in Round 21 – the first time he has kicked less than two in a game this year. Mid-season draftee Durdin (14.6, 5.4 marks) reads the ball well and enjoyed Henry’s absence to take eight marks last week. This match-up could be the most important one of the game.
SUMMARY
The Blues had to win to make the finals against the Magpies last week and did what their AFL team couldn’t do in a tough and dour affair. Their reward is a rematch with Collingwood – and the traditionalists are salivating at the prospect of these two oldest of rivals fighting to the death at the Magpies’ spiritual home on a Sunday afternoon. All roads lead to Victoria Park – get there early or you might not get there at all! Collingwood is coming off back—to-back losses but its best seems to be slightly more dangerous than Carlton’s … and that home ground advantage just might tilt the ledger to the black and white.
EARLY PREDICTION: Collingwood by 8
5.GOLD COAST (12-6) v 8.BOX HILL HAWKS (13-5)
1ST ELIMINATION FINAL
Sunday, August 28, 6.05pm @ Metricon Stadium
(Stream on AFL.com.au and the AFL Live Official App, 6:00pm)
HEAD-TO-HEAD: Box Hill 3-0
At Metricon Stadium: Box Hill 1-0
Streak: Box Hill 3 (never lost)
THIS SEASON
Round 10, May 28, 2022, at Metricon Stadium
Box Hill Hawks 6.3 8.8 13.9 17.9 111
Gold Coast 6.2 9.4 11.8 13.11 89
Goals: BOX HILL: J. Callow, F. Greene 4, B. Cavarra 3, C. Downie 2, B. Grey, M. Hall, J. Parsons, J. Saunders. GOLD COAST: C. Burgess, A. Sexton 4, B. Fiorini, S. Flanders 2, M. Corbett.
Disposals: BOX HILL: J. Cunico, D. Mascitti 26, J. Parsons 24, J. Worpel 22, J. Callow, B. Cavarra, E. Phillips 19. GOLD COAST: B. Fiorini 40, J. Bowes 30, D. Macpherson 29, S. Flanders 26, E. Hollands 23.
Coaches Votes: BOX HILL: D. Mascitti, J. Parsons 5, J. Callow, B. Cavarra 4. GOLD COAST: B. Fiorini 9, J. Bowes 2, S. Flanders 1.
PREVIOUS FIVE HEAD-TO-HEAD
July 3, 2021: Box Hill 15.21 111 def Gold Coast 5.9 39 (Box Hill City Oval)
July 3, 2010: Box Hill 19.16 130 def Gold Coast 11.8 74 (Fankhauser Reserve)
PREVIOUS FINALS
Nil
PAST FIVE MATCHES
GOLD COAST
R22: 12.11 83 def North Melbourne 11.11 71 (Arden Street Oval)
R21: 14.10 94 def Southport 12.13 85 (Metricon Stadium)
R19: 19.14 128 def Port Melbourne 8.11 59 (Metricon Stadium)
R18: 13.13 91 def Brisbane Lions 13.11 89 (Moreton Bay Sports Complex)
R17: 12.9 81 def Essendon 11.12 78 (Windy Hill)
BOX HILL HAWKS
R22: 6.9 45 lost to Sydney 15.12 102 (Box Hill City Oval)
R21: 14.13 97 def Geelong 7.12 54 (Box Hill Oval)
R20: 16.8 104 def Frankston 8.5 53 (Skybus Stadium)
R18: 17.13 115 def Northern Bullants 8.11 59 (Genis Steel Oval)
R17: 12.15 87 def Werribee 11.14 80 (Box Hill City Oval)
SEVEN KEY MATCH-UPS
Rory Thompson (Gold Coast) v Fergus Greene (Box Hill): The foundation Sun (10.7 disposals, 4.4 marks) has worked his way back from a horror run of injuries and his leadership at the back has been a big part of his team’s thrilling six-match winning streak. Greene (10.8, 4.8 marks, 49.19) needed just one goal last week to be the first Hawk to kick 50 in 20 years and three to at least share the Frosty Miller Medal, only to have a nightmare with 0.4. He is far too good to have that happen again, which is ominous for the home team.
Jez McLennan (Gold Coast) v Ben Cavarra (Box Hill): The Suns skipper has come along in leaps and bounds this year without breaking into the AFL team, with his 18.3 disposals and 4.5 marks providing a springboard. Cavarra (14.9 disposals, 41.19) is clearly the best small forward in the competition and is in top form after playing a lone hand against the Swans last week. He can win a game off his own boot.
Ned Moyle (Gold Coast) v Dave Brinker-Ritchie (Box Hill): A huge ask for the first-year Hawk against one of the dominant tap ruckmen in the VFL.
Brinker-Ritchie (8.1 disposals, 25.4 hitouts) has often punched above his weight in his nine games so far, but Moyle (14.2 disposals, 39.9 hitouts) is another step up again. If DBR can at least break even, the Hawks will take some beating.
Brayden Fiorini (Gold Coast) v Callum Porter (Box Hill): Fiorini has been in and out of the AFL team – and played up last week after his 39-touch, two goal masterclass against Southport in Round 21. Averaging a VFL-high 36.1 disposals in seven games, plus 4.1 marks and 7.7 tackles, he will be his team’s Right Bower if he plays. Porter (22.9, 4.1 marks, 5.2 hitouts) was one of the few to stand up to the Swans’ onslaught last week and could be one to make Fiorini accountable the other way.
Jack Bowes (Gold Coast) v Liam Shiels (Box Hill): Still a class above this level with a worst return (from a full VFL game) of 24 touches, Hawks great Shiels (25.1, 4.7 marks, 6.1 tackles) has taken his AFL demotion in his stride and has become an integral part of the Box Hill midfield. Knows how to win finals and will put his team on his shoulders if given the chance. The smooth-moving Sun (25.8, 5.3 tackles) has won games for his team at both ends this year and has the ability to cause just as much damage as Shiels.
Chris Burgess (Gold Coast) v Kyle Hartigan (Box Hill): Led for most of the year, got headed in Round 21, but bounced back with a matchwinning display in Round 22 to win the Frosty Miller Medal and secure his team a home final. The first player to kick 50 goals in a VFL home-and-away season in nine years, Burgess (11.4, 6.4 marks, 52.29) can jump over packs, mark on the lead and kick it a mile – usually accurately. The experienced Hartigan (10.7, 4.9 marks) has played 135 AFL games and has the height and bulk to go with him. He is going to need it all.
Sam Day/Josh Corbett (Gold Coast) v Hugh Beasley/Emerson Jeka (Box Hill): The second and third key forwards in the Suns’ charge to the finals, Corbett (5.9 marks, 20.14) is capable of big bags, with two five-goal hauls this year, while Day (5.3 marks, 32.15) should return after playing AFL last week, having not been held goalless in 12 VFL appearances, including two hauls of four. Hawks captain Beasley (16.1, 4.9 marks)has been joined in defence by regular forward Jeka back late in the season and the latter has pumped his averages up from 9.7 disposals and 3.3 marks to 19.2 and 5.5). They have a big job to do.
SUMMARY
Youthful exuberance and a wave of confidence versus hard-nosed experience and a desperation to hit back after a disappointing Round 22 cost them a home final. Which would you prefer? The Suns have become the masters of thrilling finishes, with seven matches decided by less than 10 points and six of them going to the red, gold and blue. The Hawks on the other hand have shown they have plenty of mettle at the death too – the wins over Port Melbourne and Werribee remain “you wouldn’t believe it if you didn’t see it” moments. The leading three goalkickers in the competition on the same field in a sudden death final? We can’t wait to see that.
EARLY PREDICTION: Box Hill Hawks by 12
Twitter: @BRhodesVFL
To thank football fans for their outstanding support throughout the 2022 season, the AFL is pleased to announce that entry to all matches in Week One of the 2022 Smithy’s VFL Finals Series is free.
Seven matches in the 2022 Smithy’s VFL Finals Series will be broadcast live and free on the Seven Network via Channel 7 and 7plus, including the 2022 Smithy’s VFL Grand Final. Viewers outside of Victoria can tune in to Seven’s Smithy’s VFL coverage via 7plus.
This week's Seven Network broadcast matches will be Casey Demons vs. Sydney Swans on Saturday and Collingwood vs. Carlton on Sunday. The match between Casey Demons and Sydney Swans will be broadcast on 7mate in Sydney.
All finals, including the 2022 Smithy’s VFL Grand Final, will be streamed live and free on AFL.com.au and the AFL Live Official App.
