SUMMARY

Momentum has shifted quickly between Brisbane and Gold Coast after one week of finals but the most important QClash yet could signal a much bigger change is coming.

The Lions have suffered from bouts of inconsistency all season but now have the added concern of injuries mounting up at the wrong time of year. The reigning premiers might be wounded but need to bounce back from a comprehensive defeat by Geelong as they come up against their fiercest foes. 

Brisbane has mostly ruled over Gold Coast since its Queensland rivals joined the competition in 2011 and has won 12 of their past 14 meetings. But the Suns are riding a wave of momentum in their club-first finals campaign and survived a do-or-die clash with Fremantle by the barest of margins in a fairytale ending. The Suns are still some distance from claiming the Lions' premiership crown but are just one win away from proving to be the best side in the state.

Bruce Reville is in for Lachie Neale (calf), while coach Chris Fagan has revived the finals hopes of Oscar McInerney, who has been named in place of Sam Day, who has been omitted. Gold Coast is unchanged from the team that defeated Fremantle, with elimination final hero David Swallow retained in the 23.

Brisbane v Gold Coast at the Gabba, 7.35pm AEST

NO LATE CHANGES

SUBSTITUTES
Brisbane: Bruce Reville
Gold Coast: David Swallow

LIONS v SUNS Follow it LIVE

Where and when: Gabba, Saturday September 13, 7.35pm AEST

WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR?

Round eight: Brisbane 9.12 (66) d Gold Coast 7.7 (49) at the Gabba

Brisbane did what it – nearly – always does against Gold Coast even in a highly anticipated QClash as it withstood an early challenge before pulling away to a comfortable victory. The Lions claimed a 12th win in 13 clashes with their rivals by an average 42 points, even as this final margin flattered the Suns after they booted three late consolation goals. Will Ashcroft added to his early career honours as best afield with 34 disposals and nine clearances, while Josh Dunkley clamped down on Matt Rowell's (16, one) influence. Charlie Cameron returned to form after a dry spell with three goals as the Lions jumped to the top of the ladder.

Round 20: Gold Coast 20.10 (130) d Brisbane 9.10 (64) at People First Stadium

Gold Coast stunned Brisbane and leapt over its rival on the ladder on a record-breaking day for the club. The victory was the Suns' 12th of the season and their most in a single campaign, but perhaps most importantly it came while dishing out their heaviest thumping to the Lions. The Suns’ onball brigade was too clean for the Lions in wet and wild conditions as Matt Rowell (37 disposals, 15 clearances) and captain Noah Anderson (33, five) led the way. A seven-goal avalanche either side of the main break set up the stirring win that was a huge step toward clinching a club-first finals berth.

THE STATS THAT MATTER

Brisbane

The Lions have built up a period of sustained success by playing in different modes and shifting through the gears. But they are currently at their most formidable when controlling possession and the speed of the game with sharp ball movement and uncontested marks. The Lions are ranked No.1 for marks differential (+24) but have lost the game the last three times they were beaten in that area, including last week against the Cats (-10) and in round 20 when they were trounced by the Suns (-12).

Gold Coast

The Suns have had an ideal benchmark as they have looked to improve with the Lions' engine room one to try to compete with and one day overtake. The pair of Queensland clubs are now evenly matched for average clearances (40.2) and clearance differential (+4.2). But the Suns have a better balance once the ball is on the outside to be ranked No.1 for forward 50 entries (56.6) as well as the best of the finalists for inside 50 differential (+7.6).

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR ...

Brisbane
Dayne Zorko has enjoyed the Lions' rollercoaster more than most over the past 14 seasons and now meets the club that rejected him before that ride began. The 36-year-old concedes he has played much of his career with a chip on his shoulder and that has never been more obvious than when he plays the Suns. Zorko saves his best for the Lions' nearest rivals and his old foe Touk Miller, though the former skipper now needs to turn all his attention to guiding his side's response to their qualifying final defeat. The Cats were able to stifle the Lions' ball movement, just as the Suns did in round 20 when they limited their uncontested marks. Zorko has been a revelation since he shifted to half-back last year, but could now leave his biggest mark on his rivals by launching the Lions' attacks from the back half.

Gold Coast
The Suns have an onball brigade built for finals as Matt Rowell and captain Noah Anderson lead the charge with Touk Miller and the emerging Alex Davies among those to add valuable support. While that powerful quartet can wear down opponents with their strength at stoppages, Bailey Humphrey is the player that can take the game away in a matter of minutes. The 20-year-old booted three goals in the second term to break the game open against the Dockers and has now kicked 18 majors in the second half of the year as he spends more time forward. Humphrey can still pinch hit in the midfield where his ferocious attack on the ball helps him win his share of clearances. But when he is playing alongside the likes of Ben Long in the forward half, the Suns have an imposing mix of difficult match-ups and avenues to goal.

PREDICTION

Brisbane is under pressure to defend its patch in Queensland almost as much as its premiership crown, while Gold Coast has wind in its sails as it charts a new path. The Lions have their backs to the wall as they lose a star midfielder at the worst time of year, but have proven over the past seven seasons that they can use these occasions to silence their doubters. The Suns should hold few fears of the Lions after their thumping win the last time they met but will find it harder to repeat that under the finals heat. Brisbane by 22 points.

IT WAS billed as the biggest game in Queensland’s football history. And perhaps the chance for “little brother” Gold Coast to get one-up on its older sibling with what would top the triumph of last week’s breathtaking win over Fremantle.

But it was the reigning premier and big brother Brisbane that remains king of the Sunshine State after bringing the Suns’ inspiring finals run to an end, piecing together a commanding 53-point win at the Gabba without so much as a misstep to keep its premiership defence intact.

LIONS v SUNS Full match coverage and stats

With their backs against the wall after last week’s crushing qualifying defeat to Geelong and pressure mounting with their star on-baller in Lachie Neale forced to the sidelines with a calf injury, the Lions rallied in style with a dominant siren-to-siren showing to bury their younger Queensland counterparts 14.16 (100) to 6.11 (47).

Built off their aggressive movement through the middle of the ground and subsequent scores rebounding out of the back half, dominance at clearance (43-26) and the midfield Fab Four of Josh Dunkley (20 disposals, 18 tackles), Will Ashcroft (28 disposals, two goals), Hugh McCluggage (33 disposals) and Cam Rayner (16 disposals, one goal), the Lions fired all the shots and pulled all the right moves to book themselves into next Saturday’s preliminary final against Collingwood at the MCG.

Ashcroft was arguably pick of the bunch with his sharp skills and effortless coverage of the ground, but it was close to splitting hairs between the negating role of Dunkley on Matt Rowell, power of Rayner and finesse of McCluggage, who shook off last week’s 14-disposal game – his lowest total of the season – to finish with a game-high 33 touches.

Rowell still racked up 23 disposals alongside Touk Miller (28) and Noah Anderson (26), but even with the valiant efforts of Sam Collins in the key defensive post, Gold Coast had no answers to halt its classy opponent’s run, firing through just three goals after quarter-time.

The Suns got the jump early, Ben King forcing Chris Fagan to move the defensive magnets as he fired through two majors, however it was close to the only real threat to the Lions’ hopes of going deep into September as they wrestled back control.

Brisbane’s sharp ball use through the corridor and audacious transition from defensive-50 into attack through the likes of Dayne Zorko (26 disposals), became increasingly difficult for Gold Coast to rein in, and coupled with an unrelenting punishment on turnover, opened the gates for a six-goal second term which ultimately broke the game open.

Will Ashcroft’s pair of goals had the Lions firing on all cylinders – his first a superb snap off the back of stoppage – and the margin steadily growing. But not to be outdone, Rayner launched a whopping roost on the run from just ahead of the centre circle to deliver the goal of the night.

As Brisbane’s control on the game and stoppages steadily tightened, Gold Coast’s composure began to falter. Any slip-up was quickly pounced upon by the wounded Lions, and in the blink of an eye fired back into attack.

The shockingly lockless Kai Lohmann put the margin out to a game-high 20 points off such a turnover, and then Zac Bailey to 25 with less than a minute to play before the Suns could regroup at the main break. But the Lions’ class and dare made the deficit feel far greater. 

It forced Damien Hardwick to pull last week’s match-winning levers far earlier than anticipated. Mac Andrew was swung forward after half-time in the hopes of producing a clutch goal to get his side back in the hunt, while last week’s last-minute hero and substitute David Swallow – in what would be his final game after 249 matches for the Suns – was injected into the contest midway through the third quarter in place of Ethan Read.

However, after last weekend’s scintillating heroics over Fremantle away from home which handed them their maiden finals win, it seemed as if the Suns had used up all their petrol tickets and were left no choice by the relentless Lions but to pump the brakes.

Beginning to stagnate, Gold Coast was held goalless in the third quarter in opposition to Brisbane’s three, with four-gamer Ty Gallop’s maiden major whipping the Gabba crowd into a frenzy as a preliminary final berth inched ever closer.

Ben Ainsworth finally broke the Lions’ run of six consecutive goals midway through the fourth term, however it was too little too late as Brisbane roared – and soared – on Queensland’s biggest football stage to-date.

Hugh can't keep McCluggage down
It’s as simple as this: when Hugh McCluggage is at his best, so are is Brisbane. Emblematic of the Lions’ bouncing back after facing the heat, McCluggage shrugged off last week’s 14-disposal game – which coincided with a 38-point loss to Geelong – to be an integral cog in Brisbane’s one-sided outing over Gold Coast, rounding out his evening with 33 disposals, 10 clearances and six inside-50s to stand comfortably as one of his side’s best. With Lachie Neale sidelined with a calf injury and putting a major dent into the Lions’ engine room, All-Australian McCluggage more than picked up the slack to prove his standing as one of the competition’s premier midfielders, both on the inside and outside. 

He Cam in like a wrecking ball
Cam Rayner was all over the headlines after last weekend’s contentious double free kick drew the commentary and criticism of pundits all over, but this time around nothing could knock the powerful Lion down. Spending extended time around stoppages and through the midfield in the absence of injured dual-Brownlow medallist Lachie Neale, the livewire Rayner was the X-factor the Lions were so desperately hoping for to fill the void. Breaking opposition tackles with ease (eight for the night) and laying unstoppable fend-offs for fun, the 25-year-old saved his best for a mind-boggling roost from the centre square which bounced through to give the Lions critical momentum heading towards half-time. Should Rayner carry this vein of form into next week’s preliminary final against Collingwood, supporters both Brisbane and otherwise are in for a treat.

King officially claims the Suns' goalkicking throne
It only took two minutes for Ben King to stamp his presence on Saturday’s semi-final with the opening major of the game, and then another 10 minutes later to etch himself into Gold Coast’s fledgling history books. Officially ousting ex-Sun Tom Lynch as the club’s all-time leading goalkicker (254), the latest accolade caps off a career-best campaign for the Suns spearhead which came complete with selection in the All-Australian squad and a personal-best 71 goals for the season. King had kicked a goal in every game this season outside of last week’s elimination final, and no doubt will be a critical component in the Suns’ charge to September in 2026.

BRISBANE         3.5      9.6      12.10    14.16 (100)
GOLD COAST     3.4      5.5        5.9       6.11 (47)

GOALS
Brisbane: Bailey 3, Lohmann 3, Morris 2, W. Ashcroft 2, Ah Chee, Berry, Rayner, Gallop
Gold Coast: King 2, Anderson, Rowell, Fiorini, Ainsworth

BEST
Brisbane: W. Ashcroft, Dunkley, McCluggage, Rayner, Andrews, Bailey, Berry, Wilmot
Gold Coast: Collins, Rowell, Witts, Miller, Anderson

INJURIES
Brisbane: Nil
Gold Coast: Nil

SUBSTITUTES
Brisbane: Bruce Reville (replaced Sam Marshall in the fourth quarter)
Gold Coast: David Swallow (replaced Ethan Read in the third quarter)

Crowd: 36,628 at the Gabba