AFL.com.au's Callum Twomey takes a look at a Magpies assistant coach making waves, Brisbane's chase for Sam Draper and more in Monday Cal-culations
HITTING A HOLMES RUN
THE CASE has to be made – Max Holmes is the best draft pick of this decade so far.
A member of the 2020 COVID draft, Holmes got through to pick No.20 when Geelong, who was without a pick in the draft after trading in Jeremy Cameron that year, offered its future first-round pick to Richmond for the selection.
It was a targeted move to get Holmes, who continues to repay the Cats. What makes the selection so good? Holmes, like the rest of the Victorian prospects that year, didn't play a game all season. But he had barely even played as a bottom-ager either, with just a handful of games for Melbourne Grammar and Sandringham Dragons in 2019 due to a broken arm.
Because of the challenges of that season, including recruiting teams being stood down across the country, the 2020 draft is more miss than hit. Errol Gulden got through to pick 32 but was always headed to the Swans as an Academy player, while Riley Thilthorpe is living up to his billing as the No.2 pick. Beau McCreery at No.44 has been a win for the Pies, Jake Bowey won a premiership in his first year for Melbourne and a number of the other first-round selections have put together solid careers.
But Holmes, who won Geelong's best and fairest last year, just keeps getting better. Without his midfield partner Bailey Smith on Saturday against Gold Coast, the 22-year-old had 40 disposals, 10 clearances and 861 metres gained – all game highs. Holmes has evolved into an inside-outside midfield beast, having added the contested ball and clearance game to his brilliant run and carry.
There are only four players who average at least 10 contested possessions and 500 metres gained per game this year: Smith, Noah Anderson, Ed Richards and Holmes. Perhaps because of the buzz around Smith, Holmes' impact hasn't quite got the same amount of deserved love as the other three so far.
In the five drafts between 2020-2024 so far this decade, there have been 318 national picks. Josh Weddle at No.18 in 2022, Kai Lohmann (20) and Jake Soligo (36) in 2021, Logan Morris (31) and Joel Freijah (45) in 2023 and rookies Josh Treacy, Jack Ginnivan, Jai Newcombe, Nic Martin and Sam Durham are all tracking to be among the best draft selections when weighting where they were picked against their production so far.
But the Cats' pick of Holmes – because of the difficulty of 2020 recruiting, because of the trade-in decision, because of Holmes' bolter status and because of his status and growth now – makes it top of the list.
GIANT ISSUES
THE ORANGE tsunami has turned into a trickle.
The Giants escaped against Richmond last week after the young Tigers ran out of steam, but it only covered cracks that are so obvious for Adam Kingsley's side.
Champion Data shows that Greater Western Sydney's premiership profile wasn't at elite level last year but their accuracy and efficiency in the forward line propelled them to a top-four home-and-away finish. That won't be happening this year.
The Giants may make the eight, but they are not among the premiership threats.
They are breaking down everywhere. At the contest, they can't win it and are ranked 15th in contested possession differential and groundball differential. Last year, they were eighth and 10th in those categories respectively.
Their midfield is being shown to lack depth and Port Adelaide, even without Jason Horne-Francis, had too much class and grunt on Saturday night. GWS is 17th in the AFL for first possession differential, 16th in clearance differential, 15th in points from clearance differential, and last for points from centre bounce clearance differential.
They are a grim set of numbers for a midfield that has traditionally been full of stars.
The Giants are missing Finn Callaghan's point of difference and zip, although his form had dropped off after his hot start to the season, and Toby Greene's injury against the Power didn't help the cause.
But this has been a season-long issue for the Giants, who are bottom four in the AFL for inside-50 differential, time in forward half differential, forward half intercepts and points from forward half intercepts. Their speedy, clinical Opening Round blitz against Collingwood lives in the upside down of 2025.
FORMER DOG A COACH IN WAITING
MATTHEW Boyd is the senior coach in waiting you haven't heard about yet.
But the Collingwood assistant is piecing together a coaching CV that has him right in the frame to put his hand up for the next vacant senior coaching position.
Boyd's return to the Magpies at the end of last season, following four years as the backline coach at Fremantle, was seen as a coup. And it has had a significant impact on a Magpies midfield that is working as good as ever in season 2025.
The 2016 premiership Bulldog built his 292-game playing career on hard work and is doing the same with his coaching, with the 42-year-old renowned at Collingwood for his long hours, work ethic and going above and beyond in the detail.
He has formed a close bond with Magpies superstar Nick Daicos, who is a strong supporter of Boyd and has developed even more ways to impact games this season. The Pies' midfield has transformed with the addition of Ned Long as a full-time inside option in lieu of any Jordan De Goey midfield minutes. The Pies' midfield strength is something Boyd lived himself as a high pressure player – they are No.1 for tackle differential and pressure differential in the midfield zone, showing he has instilled that into the group.
Boyd started his coaching journey at the Pies as a development coach in their 2018 Grand Final season before being promoted to an assistant coaching role in 2020. At the Dockers, Boyd helped build Fremantle into a top-four defensive side last year despite not making the finals.
Working alongside Craig McRae, who steadily and quietly built his coaching credentials over 15 years before his appointment at Collingwood, has Boyd following a similar path. Collingwood's success this season will only aid those aspirations.
BEWARE THE PROWLING LION
BRISBANE is a dangerous club with a target in sight. Sam Draper can now be added to that list.
The Lions' run of recruiting wins was crucial to its 2024 premiership, with Lachie Neale, Joe Daniher, Charlie Cameron and Josh Dunkley important high-profile acquisitions. The Lions have shown they don't just chase – they corner.
Brisbane also beat out Collingwood in the battle for free agent Tom Doedee late in 2023 and the Lions are known for going hard when they are certain of their man. When they know, they go.
Already Oscar Allen is firmly in view as a free agent this year. AFL.com.au revealed the Lions' interest in the Eagles co-captain in January and that Brisbane had spoken with Allen last year. Six months on, Allen remains out of contract and the Lions are missing Daniher's forward presence.
But they aren't stopping there. AFL.com.au revealed last week the Lions are interested in Draper, Essendon's unrestricted free agent who is weighing up his options.
There are concerns around Oscar McInerney's longevity as he battles a back injury this season and other ailments, with coach Chris Fagan saying his long-serving big man was "banged up" last month. Darcy Fort, McInerney's excellent flag fill-in, is a year older than McInerney and turns 32 this year and the other ruck on Brisbane's list is four-gamer Henry Smith.
Draper has Essendon's offer of four years on the table, but the Lions have also expressed their interest and will pitch their star-studded midfield, the possibility of immediate success, their strong run of turning around injury-hit players and their out-of-the-spotlight environment as key selling points.
The irony is a footy-mad city, which Draper would get by staying at Essendon or heading back to South Australia to join Adelaide, would be the better fit for his growing off-field presence. The Crows have long been linked as a suitor and where he would take over Taylor Walker's presence as the club's big man and big name.
The feel continues to be that if the deal is right, Draper would prefer to stay at Essendon. But Brad Scott admitted last week his season-ending Achilles injury, combined with Nick Bryan's ACL injury, had "complicated" all contract matters.
'DIMMA' RESET REQUIRED
THE BYE has come at a good time for Gold Coast – and not only to try and get some kind of read on what out-of-contract star Matt Rowell is thinking on his future.
If the Suns are to cash in on their strong start to the year, they need to reclaim a big part of their game.
From round one to 11, the Suns averaged 58 points a game from turnover, which was ranked second behind Adelaide in that time.
But they kicked only 16 points from turnover against the Dockers in round 12 and 27 in Saturday's loss to Gold Coast, which Champion Data notes are their worst and sixth worst results across the past four years.
They scored from 25 per cent of turnovers to start the year – putting them No.1 in the AFL – but the past two weeks have scored from just 10 per cent of intercepts, well below the AFL average of 20 per cent.
PORT'S POWER PLAY
PORT Adelaide's players again showed they have Ken Hinkley's back.
After four straight losses – including three shockers – and heat rising on the succession plan, the Power stepped up to get it done on the road against the Giants. It wasn't pretty, but it was enough.
Hinkley has not and will never lose his players. That they can produce a better performance when under the pump, including their Gather Round smacking of Hawthorn in round five, shows that the outgoing coach can still get through to them. The reality is Port is a team with limitations this year, particularly given its injury run.
Succession plans have often proved flawed, but having Hinkley lead this season as Josh Carr gets another year to prepare has allowed Port to protect its future coach from a season that has seen it take a dip after five years of contending. It might have been clear to the Power that a downturn in results was a possibility by the time the coaching handover became official in February.
