SUMMARY

Greater Western Sydney begins its finals campaign as one of the most in-form sides in the competition after winning nine of its past 10 matches. But the Giants are arguably the team under the most pressure this week as they aim to put a horror straight-sets finals exit last year - when they twice blew big leads - behind them.

Hawthorn has had to deal with greater expectations this season after a surprise return to the finals last year. The Hawks are still to prove they can consistently match it with the top contenders and only won three of 10 matches against the eventual finalists, though one of those victories was against the Giants.

The Giants have regained forwards Jesse Hogan and Jake Stringer, as well as key midfielder Josh Kelly, as Max Gruzewski, Harry Rowston and Jacob Wehr make way.

The Hawks welcome back important defender Josh Weddle but have made a surprise call to drop Mitch Lewis, with Sam Butler also coming into their side and veteran Luke Breust omitted.

Greater Western Sydney v Hawthorn at Engie Stadium, 3.15pm AEST

NO LATE CHANGES

SUBSTITUTES
Greater Western Sydney: Josh Kelly
Hawthorn: Changkuoth Jiath

Where and when: Engie Stadium, Saturday September 6, 3.15pm AEST

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WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR?

Round 3: Hawthorn 10.16 (76) defeated GWS Giants 9.10 (64) at UTAS Stadium

The Giants made a scintillating start with the opening five goals of the game as they made the most of having a stiff breeze behind their backs to take a 35-point lead into the first change. The Hawks responded to push their noses in front at the main break and broke the game open with four goals to two while kicking against the wind in the third term. Jesse Hogan booted a game-high four goals for the Giants, but the Hawks remained undefeated and in top spot with Will Day looming as the player most likely to keep them there before he was sidelined a few days later with a foot injury.

THE STATS THAT MATTER

Greater Western Sydney
The Giants are rightly lauded for their swift transition from defence to attack when the “orange tsunami” gets up and running but can be just as dangerous when the game slows right down. An on-ball brigade built around Tom Green as the second-best clearance winner in the competition, at an average 8.3 a game, has lifted the Giants to the No.1 ranking for scoring from 36.3 per cent of their clearances over the past month. This is an area of their game the Hawks must shut down, especially as the Giants have won 88.9 per cent of games when they first win the clearance count.

Hawthorn
The Hawks have climbed back into contention much quicker than was widely expected but are yet to deal with their troubles on the road. Since coach Sam Mitchell took the reins ahead of the 2022 season, the Hawks have won only four games outside of Victoria and Tasmania, while losing 19 times when away from those home comforts. That includes a 1-4 win-loss record on the road this season. In more worrying signs, the Hawks have lost all eight of their matches at Engie Stadium by an average of 30 points.

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR ...

Greater Western Sydney
The Giants rely on Tom Green to get their engine room started but it is the silky-smooth Finn Callaghan who gets them humming. The former No.3 pick is living up to his potential as a line-breaking midfielder in his fourth year with the Giants, even as he continues to find it harder to make an impact against the Hawks. Callaghan had a season-low 21 disposals when the sides met earlier this year, and has dipped under 20 touches in three of his four other matches against the Hawks, but has an ideal chance to respond as the stakes rise. The 22-year-old enters the elimination final as one of only five midfielders in the competition to average at least 25 disposals, 500m gained, five inside 50s and seven score involvements, and perhaps just needs to add goals to his game to have a huge say on the result.

Hawthorn
It is hard to see the Hawks being outscored if their unusual four-tall forward line clicks and stretches the Giants in defence. Veteran Jack Gunston has turned back the clock like perhaps only he thought he could, with 23 majors in his last six matches to finish third in the Coleman Medal race. But the 33-year-old’s experience and smarts could be just as valuable as his goals, as he helps occupy the Giants’ backs along with Calsher Dear and Mabior Chol and prevents the hosts from making the most of their intercepting weapons. It might only take one of those key forwards to get off the chain to force a switch that gives Gunston a more favourable matchup as he remains the most likely of the Hawks to kick a bag even in the twilight of his career.

PREDICTION

Greater Western Sydney carries ominous form into this elimination final but must learn the lessons of the past and perform across four quarters if it is to progress in place of Hawthorn. The Giants can take further confidence from having home ground advantage at a venue where they have only lost once this year and the Hawks have never tasted victory in eight attempts. The Hawks have the more settled line up with the Giants considering as many as half a dozen changes, but they are likely to only make the hosts’ forward line even more formidable. GWS Giants by 14 points.