SUMMARY

Greater Western Sydney begins its finals campaign as one of the most in-form sides in the competition after winning nine of its past 10 matches. But the Giants are arguably the team under the most pressure this week as they aim to put a horror straight-sets finals exit last year - when they twice blew big leads - behind them.

Hawthorn has had to deal with greater expectations this season after a surprise return to the finals last year. The Hawks are still to prove they can consistently match it with the top contenders and only won three of 10 matches against the eventual finalists, though one of those victories was against the Giants.

The Giants have regained forwards Jesse Hogan and Jake Stringer, as well as key midfielder Josh Kelly, as Max Gruzewski, Harry Rowston and Jacob Wehr make way.

The Hawks welcome back important defender Josh Weddle but have made a surprise call to drop Mitch Lewis, with Sam Butler also coming into their side and veteran Luke Breust omitted.

Greater Western Sydney v Hawthorn at Engie Stadium, 3.15pm AEST

NO LATE CHANGES

SUBSTITUTES
Greater Western Sydney: Josh Kelly
Hawthorn: Changkuoth Jiath

Where and when: Engie Stadium, Saturday September 6, 3.15pm AEST

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WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR?

Round 3: Hawthorn 10.16 (76) defeated GWS Giants 9.10 (64) at UTAS Stadium

The Giants made a scintillating start with the opening five goals of the game as they made the most of having a stiff breeze behind their backs to take a 35-point lead into the first change. The Hawks responded to push their noses in front at the main break and broke the game open with four goals to two while kicking against the wind in the third term. Jesse Hogan booted a game-high four goals for the Giants, but the Hawks remained undefeated and in top spot with Will Day looming as the player most likely to keep them there before he was sidelined a few days later with a foot injury.

THE STATS THAT MATTER

Greater Western Sydney
The Giants are rightly lauded for their swift transition from defence to attack when the “orange tsunami” gets up and running but can be just as dangerous when the game slows right down. An on-ball brigade built around Tom Green as the second-best clearance winner in the competition, at an average 8.3 a game, has lifted the Giants to the No.1 ranking for scoring from 36.3 per cent of their clearances over the past month. This is an area of their game the Hawks must shut down, especially as the Giants have won 88.9 per cent of games when they first win the clearance count.

Hawthorn
The Hawks have climbed back into contention much quicker than was widely expected but are yet to deal with their troubles on the road. Since coach Sam Mitchell took the reins ahead of the 2022 season, the Hawks have won only four games outside of Victoria and Tasmania, while losing 19 times when away from those home comforts. That includes a 1-4 win-loss record on the road this season. In more worrying signs, the Hawks have lost all eight of their matches at Engie Stadium by an average of 30 points.

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR ...

Greater Western Sydney
The Giants rely on Tom Green to get their engine room started but it is the silky-smooth Finn Callaghan who gets them humming. The former No.3 pick is living up to his potential as a line-breaking midfielder in his fourth year with the Giants, even as he continues to find it harder to make an impact against the Hawks. Callaghan had a season-low 21 disposals when the sides met earlier this year, and has dipped under 20 touches in three of his four other matches against the Hawks, but has an ideal chance to respond as the stakes rise. The 22-year-old enters the elimination final as one of only five midfielders in the competition to average at least 25 disposals, 500m gained, five inside 50s and seven score involvements, and perhaps just needs to add goals to his game to have a huge say on the result.

Hawthorn
It is hard to see the Hawks being outscored if their unusual four-tall forward line clicks and stretches the Giants in defence. Veteran Jack Gunston has turned back the clock like perhaps only he thought he could, with 23 majors in his last six matches to finish third in the Coleman Medal race. But the 33-year-old’s experience and smarts could be just as valuable as his goals, as he helps occupy the Giants’ backs along with Calsher Dear and Mabior Chol and prevents the hosts from making the most of their intercepting weapons. It might only take one of those key forwards to get off the chain to force a switch that gives Gunston a more favourable matchup as he remains the most likely of the Hawks to kick a bag even in the twilight of his career.

PREDICTION

Greater Western Sydney carries ominous form into this elimination final but must learn the lessons of the past and perform across four quarters if it is to progress in place of Hawthorn. The Giants can take further confidence from having home ground advantage at a venue where they have only lost once this year and the Hawks have never tasted victory in eight attempts. The Hawks have the more settled line up with the Giants considering as many as half a dozen changes, but they are likely to only make the hosts’ forward line even more formidable. GWS Giants by 14 points.

AT FIRST, a win looked likely for Hawthorn after a seven-goal first term. Then just about a lock after being 42 points up midway through the third. And in the blink of an eye, seriously in doubt.

With one foot just about in the semi-final door and a date against Adelaide next Saturday night just about confirmed, Saturday’s elimination final against Greater Western Sydney took a sudden and gripping term as the Orange Tsunami fired through six straight goals in the shadows of three-quarter time to set up a grandstand finish for the ages at Engie Stadium. 

GIANTS v HAWKS Full match coverage and stats

But Hawthorn dug deep when it mattered most, staving off the cut-throat and jaw-dropping GWS brigade who looked just about dead and buried at half-time, headlined by Tom Green and Finn Callaghan (34 disposals each) and super sub Josh Kelly (two goals, 18 disposals) to scurry away to a 19-point win and leave the Giants heartbroken, 16.11 (107) to 13.10 (88).

The Hawks dominated proceedings for most of the afternoon to leave their opponents shell-shocked early as 100-gamer Jai Newcombe (32 disposals, 12 clearances) and Jarman Impey (28 disposals) ran rampant, while Tom Barrass led the defensive unit with aplomb, before the Giants regathered steam, wrestled their way back on top of the midfield battle and booted home seven straight majors either side of three-quarter time to almost pull off one of the greatest finals triumphs.

Whether it was the margin being blown out and then suddenly whittled away, the starring roles of some of the game’s most prolific names, or the tight, nerve-wracking finish that would have been sensational no matter the result, this was one elimination that will be remembered for a long time.

GWS looked to dictate terms early to hem the ball inside its attacking arc and concede just one opposition forward entry in the game’s opening 10 minutes, however, scratchy movement and a lack of composure going into attack squandered chances to open up a critical lead at home.

While the Giants wallowed in their inefficiency, it was the exact opposite for the Hawks. Newcombe finally broke through for his side’s first of the afternoon, making the most of a lapse in the Giants’ concentration off the back of a 50-metre penalty, and his side didn’t need many more chances to land barnstorming blow after blow.

Seven goals from its 13 first-quarter entries encapsulated Hawthorn’s precise power. Connor Macdonald, Nick Watson and Karl Amon rapidly piled on three goals from as many entries – and in almost as many minutes – as the on-song engine room, led by Newcombe, flexed its muscle over the Giants’ star-studded brigade. 

Even from the first break, it appeared it might just be a bridge too far for GWS to overcome.

It was a similar tale in the second as the Orange Tsunami showed signs of swelling and then surging their way back on top. But Hawthorn once again had the answers to fire through another four goals to build upon their quarter-time advantage and add to the Giants’ forward-half woes. It looked like that script wouldn’t change.

The situation soured even further for GWS when Darcy Jones was subbed out of the game with a suspected right ACL injury just minutes before half-time, and although his replacement was the seasoned September stalwart in Kelly – starting as the substitute for the first time in a decade – it seemed it still wouldn’t be enough of a boost to ultimately pass the Hawks.

Initially, the pressure seemed inescapable. After coming close to firing through a long-awaited major in the third term, growing gun Aaron Cadman let the blood rush to his head and let slip what would have been a certain goal. True to form, Jack Ginnivan made sure to let his young contemporary know all about it, but ultimately let his actions do the talking with two laser-like majors mere moments later.

That looked like it may well be the end of the Giants. But there’s a reason their tagline is ‘Never Surrender’. 

Six tide-turning goals to round out the third term incredibly sliced the margin back to six points, as the returning Hogan (three goals for the game), Jake Stringer (who, like Hogan, was largely unsighted in the first half) and substitute Kelly (two goals, 14 disposals) all impacted offensively; the latter playing a pivotal hand in firing up the engine room to first drive the Hawks on the back-foot and then into panic stations.

Hogan’s third goal to open the fourth quarter shook Engie Stadium to its foundations, then laid the groundwork towards a nail-biting conclusion. Dylan Moore and Toby Greene missed shots for their respective sides as the single-figure margin danced in favour of both sides, yet it was the cool head of the incoming Sam Butler, and then Mabior Chol seconds later, that thrust the brown and gold more than two goals clear.

GWS continued to push even with the seconds ticking down, but the final roll of the dice landed Hawthorn’s way as Jake Riccardi hit the post with just over a minute on the clock in what would have put his side eight points adrift.

Newcombe goes nuclear in September
After finishing fourth in last year’s Gary Ayres Medal count for the Best Finals Player from just two games, Jai Newcombe could be primed for an equally big September in 2025. In his 100th match, the midfield bull was nigh untouchable as the Hawks left the flat-footed Giants in their wake at stoppages, closing out the day with a team-high 32 touches and 12 clearances to jettison his side out to a 28-point lead at half-time. While going quiet in the third term, even with his side hitting a 42-point advantage, Newcombe rolled up the sleeves in the tense final quarter with three clearances to save his side from a devastating close to 2025. If the Hawks are to go deep in September, there’s no question that Newcombe will be a major player in seeing them through to a potential 14th flag.

This might be the greatest sub showing of all-time
Speaking before the game, Giants coach Adam Kingsley was hoping for “one good half” from the surprise sub Josh Kelly after spending the past six weeks nursing a calf injury. He certainly got that, and then some. Over 200 games and 10 years since he last started a match on the pine as substitute, Kelly was injected into the game earlier than anticipated as Darcy Jones was subbed out minutes before half-time with a suspected ACL injury. But what unfolded was one of his most sterling September performances to drag his side back from the brink. Fourteen disposals and two magnificent goals in the third term, which yielded six GWS majors against the grain, helped put his side within a kick at the final change; his engine room electricity signaling the highest-rated quarter ever for a Giant in a final. Kelly finished with 18 touches for the game as his side pushed towards the finish line with intensifying speed and ferocity, and if GWS had come out on top by the final siren, it very well might be one of the best performances to ever come in the club’s relatively brief history. 

Brown’s bump puts umpiring back on the agenda
After last night’s contentious pair of umpiring decisions which saw Brisbane awarded two free kicks and subsequent goals to Cam Rayner, another call of similar – but less dramatic – ilk is sure to add to the conversation. As Hawthorn started firing on all cylinders after a lopsided start to the game, an off-the-ball strike by Callum Brown on James Worpel’s chest, which resulted in a 50-metre penalty and goal to Karl Amon to continue their first-quarter momentum. Whether it was enough force to warrant a free kick, or whether players need to be more savvy as to those decisions being paid against them will certainly be discussed, but fortunately for all parties, it was a decision that had no major bearing on the final result.

GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY   3.2    6.5    12.7   13.10 (88)
HAWTHORN                              7.2   11.3   13.7   16.11 (107)

GOALS
Greater Western Sydney: Hogan 3, Bedford 2, Kelly 2, Callaghan, Riccardi, Briggs, Jones, Thomas, O’Halloran
Hawthorn: Macdonald 3, Gunston 3, Ginnivan 3, Chol 2, Newcombe, Watson, Amon, Dear, Butler

BEST
Greater Western Sydney: Callaghan, Green, Kelly, Whitfield, Hogan, Briggs
Hawthorn: Newcombe, Impey, Meek, Weddle, Ginnivan, Macdonald, Barrass

INJURIES
Greater Western Sydney: Jones (knee)
Hawthorn: Nil

SUBSTITUTES
Greater Western Sydney: Josh Kelly (replaced Darcy Jones in the second quarter)
Hawthorn: Changkuoth Jiath (replaced Calsher Dear in the third quarter)

Crowd: 20,634 at Engie Stadium