AFL.com.au's Callum Twomey takes a look at the benefits already being felt of Wildcard Round, the history of assistance packages and more in Cal-culations
WHY PIES NEED TO LAND LACHIE
WATCH Collingwood on Monday and wonder what the Pies midfield would look like with Lachie Neale next to Nick Daicos.
Imagine it because it is growing in likelihood as the Magpies become frontrunners for the Brisbane free agent as he weighs up his future.
The Pies were on hand at People First Stadium on Saturday night and among the stack of players in the game they have interest in, including Suns pair Jed Walter and Bailey Humphrey, Neale would have been under the microscope.
He didn't disappoint. His 37-disposal and seven-clearance effort added to a year that is statistically better than his 2023 Brownlow Medal season.
He is averaging more disposals, metres gained, inside-50s, uncontested possessions, marks, centre clearances, score assists and score involvements this year than that campaign, whilst is also up on ranking points according to Champion Data (14.8 to 13.9).
Neale is on track to win his fifth Lions best and fairest – and seventh of his career – and is ranked third in the AFL for clearances and fifth for disposals.
The Magpies, meanwhile, are ranked in the bottom four for differentials in contested possessions, first possessions, clearances and centre clearances – all the forte of the two-time premiership star.
The appeal for the Pies in the 33-year-old is that he costs no draft capital as an unrestricted free agent. And after taking six mature age draftees since last year's mid-season draft, Collingwood is not backing down from its strategy to keep contending and adding pieces to its list while Nick Daicos is the best player in the game.
There are others in Collingwood's sights and the club hasn't given up on attracting Zak Butters, who is deciding between the Western Bulldogs, Geelong, Richmond and the Pies, albeit the Dogs have been favourites over many months.
Neale is taking his time to decide his future and has been considering a return to Western Australia, as well as interest from Adelaide, but the Pies are keen. Brisbane wants to keep him but that seems the least likely result at this stage.
The Pies' chase for Neale would pose the question on whether it shapes the calls of Scott Pendlebury and Steele Sidebottom on whether they play on into 2027. But if you took him in this form and placed him into the centre bounce to start Monday's King's Birthday clash against Melbourne, the Pies are a more formidable unit.
SAINTS LAMENT LATE ERRORS
ROSS Lyon looked like he was already cutting his edits for the review only moments after the siren sounded on Sunday night.
His Saints had put in an excellent performance against Sydney but were overrun by a Swans outfit that knows to always keep pressing.
Lyon will ask why Jai Serong was able to get so much space at that crucial final forward-50 stoppage to be able to kick the matchwinner. He will wonder why the Saints weren't able to find their man on so many occasions late or even the numbers at big contests. When St Kilda cleared its back half in the dying moments, the ball was mopped up by free Swans on the wing and then sent back in.
It was a missed opportunity for the Saints, who had led by 33 points in the second quarter and controlled the game in their best performance of the year.
But Sydney kept pushing, despite losing key players Justin McInerney (hamstring) and Tom McCartin (concussion) through the contest. Their capacity to score quickly gives them a chance in any game, even when it looks beyond them.
St Kilda's recruits put in the performance they would have dreamt up last year. Tom De Koning kept on jumping and was outstanding against Brodie Grundy in the ruck battle, Liam Ryan kicked five goals and took one of the marks of the year and Jack Silvagni continued his strong run of form in the back half, including what should have been a match-saving mark on the goal line late.
Silvagni's reaction on the siren spoke for all of the Saints: what could've, should've been.
SUNS' CLOUDY STRETCH
IT IS the six-week stretch that will make or break Gold Coast.
After back-to-back defeats, the Suns head to Geelong on Friday night, then face Hawthorn, Fremantle (at Optus Stadium), Collingwood, Adelaide (at Adelaide Oval) and the Western Bulldogs.
A good stretch will keep them in top-six contention. A bad run will put a wildcard position in jeopardy.
The Suns' flat showing in Saturday's QClash was concerning for many reasons, all of which were detailed by senior coach Damien Hardwick post-game.
"Taught a lesson", "best players didn't play well enough", "we got smashed", "I'm disappointed, I'm angry" were all part of Hardwick's debrief.
He has some problems to solve. Getting Matt Rowell back to his Brownlow Medal form has been a battle. The ruck rules – and age – have Jarrod Witts not having the same impact as previous years.Â
And why was Sam Collins not moved onto Brisbane gun Logan Morris earlier on Saturday? Morris had kicked six goals on Mac Andrew and Bodhi Uwland before Collins spent 18 minutes opposed to the red-hot Lions forward in the final term when the game was over.
NORTH MUST GO SHOPPING
THIS is the year for North Melbourne to land a key defender.
Fremantle got a hold of the Roos in every department on Saturday's drubbing, and that included the Dockers' tall forwards having a day out.
Fremantle took 22 marks inside 50 to North's three, with Patrick Voss and Josh Treacy each kicking four goals and ruckman Luke Jackson booting three.
Gettable this week revealed the Roos are a suitor for Adelaide unrestricted free agent Jordon Butts, and he should be of strong interest given he doesn't require a trade. But it looks like being a busy period on the key defender carousel and North should be buying a ticket for the ride.
Jordan Ridley, as revealed by AFL.com.au last month, wants a fresh start in Queensland and Gold Coast is keen, as are the Lions. Charlie Ballard can't break into the Suns' team and is too good to be in the VFL.
Buku Khamis has an offer from the Western Bulldogs but also has rival interest again, while the Dogs have been among the clubs to try and pry Crow Mark Keane out of Adelaide despite his contract. His teammate Nick Murray could also be a consideration if he remains out of the Crows side.
The Roos are cashed up and have enough young talent to be shopping their first-round draft pick for the right player. Would it be trying what the Bulldogs did last year with Callum Wilkie and throw a blockbuster offer to pre-agents Tom McCartin and Sam De Koning before both hit free agency next year? The Swans are trying to tie up McCartin before he gets that far with a long-term deal, but why not make him think?
Or, at the other end of things, would Melbourne premiership player Tom McDonald – an unrestricted free agent – offer some steadiness for a year like Jack Darling and Luke Parker have brought to North in different roles for the club?
That's a consideration for the end of the season, which will feel a long way away this week in Perth as the Roos mull their bumbling Bunbury burying.
A loss to the red-hot Dockers was expected. A 124-point smashing, which felt more like a February practice match than a mid-season contest in the conditions, tempo and pressure, has set back the progress the Roos made just a fortnight ago against Gold Coast.
In the second biggest margin of the season, North conceded the last 19 goals of the game. Calling it a procession doesn't do Freo justice such was the ease at which they ran the ball from one end of the ground to the other, with Jackson starting much of it in the ruck, where he was far too good for Tristan Xerri in a dynamic performance with three goals, 19 disposals, 22 hitouts and four clearances.
Freo now heads to the bye at 12-1 on top of the ladder, but the story will be North. They have won one of their past six games and despite the young talent at his disposal, Alastair Clarkson has managed to claim only one scalp this year and that was the Darwin-drained Suns. Captain Nick Larkey's tough season continued, the midfield was belted and there were few winners.
Clarkson post-game said the Roos felt a sense of "shame" after the showing in Bunbury.
North Melbourne is estimated to make around $2 million per season for the three years it sells two home games to Western Australia and these are the realities of club funding in a competitive sporting marketplace and economy.
But the blowtorch is now on North and it will need to serve up a much better showing West Coast at Optus Stadium next week to come home with anything other than a WA payday.
THE CROWS QUESTION
THE GLARE was about to be turned to Adelaide.
A loss on Thursday night to Geelong would have put the spotlight firmly on last year's minor premiers and left them either clinging to a spot inside the top 10 or just outside the wildcard positions.
But it was not to be, as Crows coach Matthew Nicks put together one of his best victories to steer the club to a vital one-point win. What was it that The Divinyls said about pleasure and pain?
The win was without match-winners Riley Thilthorpe (suspension) and Izak Rankine (calf) but the Crows were organised, steady under pressure and well led.
The return of Daniel Curtin to Adelaide's defence has added class and presence and he was the top-ranked player on the ground according to Champion Data's Player Ratings, although Jordan Dawson's impact was even bigger with his three goals from 22 disposals (as well as nine tackles) continuing his brilliant form.
The personal anguish Dawson is dealing with was evident on the final siren, but he is loved by his teammates and his performance on Thursday night proved why.
And the Crows were finally able to find a solution to stop Tom Stewart, who had Callum Ah Chee at his side before the former Lion suffered another frustrating hamstring strain.
The Crows had dominance in the ruck, with revelation Lachie McAndrew again excellent with 16 disposals and 51 hitouts – more than bit-part rucks Sam De Koning, Mark Blicavs and Shannon Neale could muster – and he is continuing to show that he has been a super find for Adelaide having been delisted by Sydney after four years on their list.
Another ex-Swan, Hugo Hall-Kahan, who has rewired his game to be an attacking half-back, stepped in seamlessly after being a mid-season draftee only nine days earlier in a brave selection call from Nicks that paid off.
The Crows have won four of their past five games and six of their past seven without ever looking as powerful as they did in the back half of last year. They have maintained touch with the top six despite not performing to that level but if they can clinch three wins from their next four games – against the Bulldogs, Melbourne, Port Adelaide and West Coast – they will remain in the hunt.
WILDCARD WINNER
HAND up. I had my doubts about the Wildcard Round.
I was unsure the impact of ninth and tenth on the ladder being involved in finals would add anything to the chase for glory in September, and felt it all but consigned seventh and eighth to being finals also-rans given the advantage for the top-six teams to have a week off.
That might still be the case and the wildcard games could yet be fizzers if seventh belts 10th place. But the prospect of playing in the Wildcard Round has undoubtedly lengthened the interest catchment zone of teams on the fringes.
Carlton's top-eight hopes were over when Michael Voss left the club at round nine with one win to its name. But after a refresh, the Blues are now right in the wildcard mix.
North Melbourne just lost by 20 goals and are still in the wildcard zone and will be for some time yet, while Port Adelaide's win over West Coast, and their superior percentage to those around them, has them within reach too.
At the midway point of the season, only the bottom-three teams on the ladder – Essendon, Richmond and the Eagles given their poor percentage – are out of the wildcard running.
If the intention of Wildcard Round is to have more teams fighting for a finals spot deeper into the year, it has worked.
HOW ASSISTANCE HELPS
DEATH, taxes and divisive debate about AFL assistance packages.
AFL.com.au's report on Tuesday night about Essendon officially starting talks with the AFL about getting an assistance package this year saw the usual reaction that assistance package requests receive.
But these have worked to make clubs better, if they are used well.
Brisbane received an end-of-first round pick in 2016 at the beginning of its build and that pick ended up being used in a deal that saw the Lions land a future pick from Port Adelaide. That pick finally turned into a trade for Charlie Cameron. Tick.
In 2018, Gold Coast picked up Sam Collins as part of its access to state league players under that year's special assistance. He has won two best and fairests since then. Tick.
The following year, the Suns were given a pick at the top of the draft that saw them end with picks No.1 and 2 – essentially giving them Noah Anderson given they were already going to take Matt Rowell at No.1 – but the other parts of their package saw them able to list the likes of Connor Budarick, Joel Jeffrey, Alex Davies and Malcolm Rosas as Academy players without having to match bids. Tick.
The Suns also used other picks to bundle together and get the selection to trade to St Kilda for Ben Long. Tick.
North Melbourne was forced to trade its picks in 2023 for players, which saw it land Dylan Stephens from the Swans, and also used another of its picks to future trade and grab a top-20 pick to use on Riley Hardeman. Tick.
Last year, West Coast also essentially got Brandon Starcevich via the end-of-first round pick that was handed to them from the AFL. Tick.
And those are just the main items within the various packages over the past decade, with some other success stories in the extra rookie list spots afforded to different clubs.
Debating the merit of a club getting an assistance package is fair enough, as list pain is usually largely self-inflicted. But there's no doubt that if used wisely, these packages can be effective.
AND WHILE WE'RE AT IT ...
NICK Watson has walked the walk all year.
He's in the hunt for the Coleman Medal, he was so good in the first half against the Bulldogs that he was his team's best player and he's been a top-10 player in the game this season.
May he continue to play as he does, express himself how he does, win games as he does, make us tune into his games as he does and live rent free in the minds of so many.