TWELVE teams have become six in the closest rebel VFLW season in the competition’s seven-season history, and it is anybody’s guess which four will advance to the semi finals next week.

The only thing that is certain is the top two – Collingwood and Port Melbourne – will have at least one more week after their mouthwatering qualifying final, while we have two elimination finals that could not be more different in their contrast.

One elimination final features two powerful clubs who have been considered premiership favourites, but have cost themselves the double chance with either poor kicking (Box Hill Hawks) or inconsistent form (Essendon).

The other elimination final involves two clubs who have battled away near the bottom of the ladder since their inception but enter July in great form with nine wins in 11 weeks (Williamstown) and three wins in a row (Carlton).

The winner of the Magpies v Borough game keeps its double chance and will be one win from a Grand Final, where they will taking on the highest ranked winner of the two elimination finals.

The loser of the qualifying final will host a knockout semi-final against the other elimination final victor.

All matches in the 2023 rebel VFLW Finals Series will be broadcast live and free on AFL.com.au and the AFL Live Official App. This week's two Sunday games will also be broadcast on Casey Radio.

SECOND ELIMINATION FINAL:
BOX HILL HAWKS vs ESSENDON

Saturday July 8, 11:00am, Box Hill City Oval
Head-to-head: Essendon 4-3-2. At Box Hill City Oval: Essendon 2-1-1. Streak: Essendon 4 and 2 draws from past six meetings

THIS SEASON

Round 1 at NEC Hangar
ESSENDON 1.1, 3.2, 3.2, 4.3 (27)
BOX HILL HAWKS 1.1, 1.3, 2.7, 3.9 (27)

Goals: ESSENDON: Z. Hurrell, C. Sargent, R. Tierney, M. Wilson. BOX HILL HAWKS: M. Boyd 3.
Disposals: ESSENDON: R. Tierney 21, C. Ugle 18, B. Clarke 17, T. Crook, Z. Hurrell, A. Morcom, R. Sutton 14. BOX HILL HAWKS: N. Garner, J. Mifsud 23, M. Boyd, C. Hammans, G. McRae 17.
Coaches Votes: ESSENDON: C. Ugle 6, B. Clarke 3, R. Tierney 2, T. Crook 1. BOX HILL HAWKS: M. Boyd 9, J. Mifsud 6, N. Garner 3.

Round 8 at Box Hill City Oval
BOX HILL HAWKS 1.2, 1.3, 1.5, 1.9 (15)
ESSENDON 2.0, 3.2, 4.3, 5.3 (33)

Goals: ESSENDON: O. Manfre 2, M. Clifford, A. Radford, P. Scott. BOX HILL HAWKS: A. Pisano.
Disposals: ESSENDON: A. Radford 29, G. Clarke 19, S. Wales 17, S. Molan, S. van de Heuvel 16. BOX HILL HAWKS: J. Mifsud 22, L. Stone, M. van Berkel 17, G. McRae 14, A. McDonagh 13.
Coaches Votes: ESSENDON: A. Radford 10, S. Wales 6, S. van de Heuvel 1. BOX HILL HAWKS: J. Mifsud, M. van Berkel 4, L. Stone 3, G. McRae 2.

PREVIOUS FIVE HEAD-TO-HEAD

June 11, 2022: Essendon 8.12 60 def Hawthorn 1.1 7 (Qualifying Final, Windy Hill)
May 15, 2022: Hawthorn 4.7 31 drew Essendon 4.7 31 (Box Hill City Oval)
April 10, 2021: Essendon 4.5 29 def Hawthorn 1.10 16 (Box Hill City Oval)
March 13, 2021: Essendon 8.7 55 def Hawthorn 3.9 27 (NEC Hangar)
June 15, 2019: Hawthorn 8.8 56 def Essendon 3.2 20 (Windy Hill)

PAST FIVE MATCHES - BOX HILL HAWKS

R14: 3.3 21 def Southern Saints 0.4 4 (Box Hill City Oval)
R13: 6.6 42 def Casey Demons 2.3 15 (Casey Fields)
R12: 3.9 27 drew Geelong 4.3 27 (Deakin University)
R11: 3.8 26 lost to Williamstown 4.5 29 (Box Hill City Oval)
R10: 5.3 33 def North Melbourne 1.5 11 (Arden St)

PAST FIVE MATCHES - ESSENDON

R14: 6.5 41 def Western Bulldogs 4.4 28 (Windy Hill)
R13: 3.1 19 lost to Port Melbourne 3.4 22 (ETU Stadium)
R12: 4.6 30 def Casey Demons 3.7 25 (Casey Fields)
R11: 5.7 37 lost to North Melbourne 6.9 45 (NEC Hangar)
R10: 6.6 42 def Darebin 1.2 8 (La Trobe University)

SUMMARY

These two teams have put on some terrific contests in the past couple of years and have probably been the best two on paper. However, the Hawks’ wastefulness in attack has been a factor in them not beating the Bombers in their past six meetings (3.9, 1.9, 1.1, 4.7, 1.10, 3.9). It also cost them six premiership points in Rounds 11 and 12 and the double chance. It doesn’t make pretty reading and if they repeat that profligacy they won’t be playing in the semi-finals. The Bombers have been unconvincing in the past month, including needing a late rally to overcome the Bulldogs to secure their finals spot last week. They will also need to play better to keep their premiership defence alive. It’s anybody’s game.

EARLY PREDICTION

Essendon by 4

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - MARCH 26: Jordan Mifsud of the Box Hill Hawks marks the ball during the round one VFLW match between the Essendon Bombers and Box Hill Hawks at The Hangar on March 26, 2023 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Daniel Pockett/AFL Photos)

QUALIFYING FINAL:
COLLINGWOOD vs PORT MELBOURNE

Sunday July 9, 11:00am, Victoria Park
Head-to-head: Collingwood 3-1. At Victoria Park: Collingwood 1-0. Streak: Port Melbourne 1 

THIS SEASON

Round 2 at ETU Stadium
PORT MELBOURNE 2.0, 4.2, 6.2, 9.3 (57)
COLLINGWOOD 0.2, 0.3, 1.8, 2.8 (20)

Goals: PORT MELBOURNE: F. Frew, A. Peck, B. Stutt, L. Wright 2, J. Williams. COLLINGWOOD: M. DeMatteo, N. Dojiok.
Disposals: PORT MELBOURNE: E. Morrison 22, C. Dyett 17, L. Davie, K. O’Keefe 13, K. Adams, O. Barton, A. Campbell 12. COLLINGWOOD: J. Bates 31, C. Bunker 19, I. Evans, M. Zander 16, C. van der Vlies 14.
Coaches Votes: PORT MELBOURNE: C. Dyett 6, E. Morrison, A. Peck 4, S. Reid, B. Stutt 1. COLLINGWOOD: J. Bates 10, C. Bunker, N. Dojiok 2.

PREVIOUS THREE HEAD-TO-HEAD

May 21, 2022: Collingwood 6.5 41 def Port Melbourne 5.2 32 (ETU Stadium)
March 12, 2022: Collingwood 5.12 42 def Port Melbourne 3.3 21 (Victoria Park)
May 15, 2021: Collingwood 8.4 52 def Port Melbourne 1.4 10 (ETU Stadium)

PAST FIVE MATCHES - COLLINGWOOD

R14: 8.8 56 def North Melbourne 3.5 23 (Arden St)
R13: 5.13 43 def Geelong 0.3 3 (AIA Vitality Centre)
R12: 4.2 26 lost to Carlton 5.4 34 (AIA Vitality Centre)
R11: 11.6 72 def Darebin 2.1 13 (Genis Steel Oval)
R10: 3.6 24 lost to Western Bulldogs 6.4 40 (ETU Stadium)

PAST FIVE MATCHES - PORT MELBOURNE

R14: 4.2 26 lost to Casey Demons 5.6 36 (Wilson Storage Trevor Barker Beach Oval)
R13: 3.4 22 def Essendon 3.1 19 (ETU Stadium)
R12: 8.10 58 def Darebin 2.5 17 (La Trobe University)
R11: 5.6 36 def Western Bulldogs 5.2 32 (ETU Stadium)
R10: 5.2 32 def Geelong 3.7 25 (Deakin University)

SUMMARY

The Borough blew the chance for a home qualifying final by losing to Casey Demons last week but they will still be confident heading to Victoria Park after beating the Magpies by six goals at the start of the season – knowing any remaining games will be on their home patch. It has been a wonderful effort to bounce back after finishing 10th last year. The Magpies slipped to sixth last year after the disappointment of having the 2021 Grand Final abandoned when they were hot favourites to win back-to-back flags and their response to the upset loss to Carlton in Round 12 has shown their quality. Their finals experience could prove the difference in what will be another tight contest.

EARLY PREDICTION

Collingwood by 7

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - MAY 14: Nicole Hales of Collingwood looks to pass the ball during the round eight VFL match between Collingwood Magpies and North Melbourne Kangaroos at AIA Centre on May 14, 2023 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Daniel Pockett/AFL Photos)

FIRST ELIMINATION FINAL:
WILLIAMSTOWN vs CARLTON

Sunday July 9, 4:30pm, DSV Stadium
Head-to-head: Carlton 3-2-1. At DSV Stadium: Level 1-1-1. Streak: Williamstown 2 

THIS SEASON

Round 5 at IKON Park
CARLTON 0.1, 0.2, 1.2, 1.4 (10)
WILLIAMSTOWN 2.1, 4.2, 4.2, 7.3 (45)

Goals: WILLIAMSTOWN: S. Cameron 3, T. Brett, E. Cleland, C. Tyrrell, S. Whiting. CARLTON: E. Hurley.
Disposals: WILLIAMSTOWN: L. Stepnell 19, S. Newman 18, J. Kawa, P King 16, S. Cameron, E. Eaves 15. CARLTON: M. Di Cosmo 26, T. Ortlepp 22, A. Thorneycroft 21, B. Gurr 17, A. Klingbeil 16.
Coaches Votes: WILLIAMSTOWN: S. Cameron 8, L. Stepnell 7, A. Newman 5, T. Brett 3, Z. Day 1. CARLTON: M. Di Cosmo 5, E. Wood 1.

Round 10 at DSV Stadium
WILLIAMSTOWN 1.2, 2.3, 4.6, 7.8 (50)
CARLTON 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0 (12)

Goals: WILLIAMSTOWN: S. Cameron 4, S. Dunell, E. Straford, S. Whiting. CARLTON: M. Di Cosmo, I. Khoury.
Disposals: WILLIAMSTOWN: E. Eaves 17, N. Julian 16, D. Pedersen, S. Whiting, M. Williamson 15. CARLTON: A. Thorneycroft 18, I. Khoury 14, A. Bild 13, M. Di Cosmo 12, G. Tait 9.
Coaches Votes: WILLIAMSTOWN: E. Eaves 10, S. Cameron 4, D. Pedersen, S. Whiting, M. Williamson 3, N. Julian 2, E. Straford 1. CARLTON: A. Thorneycroft 4.

PREVIOUS FOUR HEAD-TO-HEAD

May 7, 2022: Williamstown 2.6 18 drew Carlton 2.6 18 (DSV Stadium)
June 27, 2021: Carlton 6.7 43 def Williamstown 2.4 16 (DSV Stadium)
July 21, 2019: Carlton 9.5 59 def Williamstown 4.2 26 (Ikon Park)
July 15, 2018: Carlton 8.4 52 def Williamstown 3.5 23 (Ikon Park)

PAST FIVE MATCHES - WILLIAMSTOWN

R14: 8.3 51 def Geelong 5.7 37 (DSV Stadium)
R13: 3.7 25 def Southern Saints 3.3 21 (Wilson Storage Trevor Barker Beach Oval)
R12: 5.5 35 def Western Bulldogs 1.4 10 (DSV Stadium)
R11: 4.5 29 def Box Hill Hawks 3.8 26 (Box Hill City Oval)
R10: 7.8 50 def Carlton 2.0 12 (DSV Stadium)

PAST FIVE MATCHES - ESSENDON

R14: 12.9 81 def Darebin 2.2 14 (Ikon Park)
R13: 7.1 43 def Western Bulldogs 2.2 14 (ETU Stadium)
R12: 5.4 34 def Collingwood 4.2 26 (AIA Vitality Centre)
R11: 5.2 32 lost to Southern Saints 6.2 38 (Ikon Park)
R10: 2.0 12 lost to Williamstown 7.8 50 (DSV Stadium)

SUMMARY

Two teams making their finals debut, with one guaranteed to keep the fairytale going, while the other heads to the off-season. The Seagulls are the form team of the competition after winning all four practice matches and then bouncing back from a 0-3 start to sing the song in nine of their past 11 games. Amazingly, those nine wins are half the total victories they have had in their history – they were 9-48-2 after the loss to Port Melbourne on Good Friday. Included in this uprising has been two six-goal wins over Sunday’s opponent in Carlton which ensure they start favourites this time. The Blues hit the elimination final with a full head of steam with three straight wins and Christina Bernardi in red-hot form. Will the confidence of those wins help them, or will the fact the last two were “easy kills” be a negative.

EARLY PREDICTION

Williamstown by 14