AT A TIME when Brisbane has been a powerhouse in the AFL, its five-game losing streak to Hawthorn is a genuine head-scratcher.
Since the first round of the 2020 season, when an empty MCG greeted the teams just days before the country would be locked down due to the early days of the pandemic, the Hawks have had their way.
Five wins and no losses. Alastair Clarkson in charge, Sam Mitchell at the helm, it hasn't mattered.
All the while, Hawthorn has been bottoming out and rebuilding. The most recent contest, in round 11 of last year, was in the very early stages of the Hawks' incredible resurgence and resulted in a 25-point victory at Marvel Stadium, where both teams had equal shots at goal.
How have the Hawks bucked the odds five consecutive times?
As with any anomaly, or bogey team, like this, it's a multi-faceted answer.
Each game has its own, independent, story. In 2020, there was no crowd, which no-one was used to. In 2021, the Hawks smacked the visitors late in the year in what was a must-win game for the Lions (before they came with a late charge). In 2022, they won a mid-season shootout, in 2023 they added to the 'Brisbane struggles at the MCG' storyline, and last year was more a case of winning an arm wrestle.
Every game has been at home for Hawthorn. In fact, the brown and gold has played at the Gabba just three times since 2008. That's right, three times in 17 seasons! They will return there in the final round of this season.
The venues explain just a small portion of the results.
Two constants in their recent success have been Jai Newcombe and James Sicily, particularly the past three victories.
In that stretch Sicily has averaged a whopping 16.5 Player Rating Points, up from 12.6 overall in the same period. Newcombe’s rise in output against the Lions is even more stark, up from 13.6 overall to 18.1.
In raw numbers that has equated to 27 disposals and nine marks a game for Sicily and 26 and seven clearances for Newcombe. The duo has had their way.
Hawthorn has won by an average of 19 points over the five matches and done so in a variety of ways.
With statistics provided by Champion Data, the Hawks have generally punished Brisbane off turnover, winning that war in four of the five matches, including comprehensively in both 2021 (+48 points) and 2023 (+27 points).
Last year it was clearances they dominated, with a +27 points advantage over the vaunted Brisbane midfield.
With a variety of scoring avenues, the most telling statistic, as it maybe always should be, has been goal accuracy.
Hawthorn has won that battle in every contest, always converting more than 50 per cent of its shots at goal.
Both teams enter Saturday's match at the MCG coming off a loss.
Can the Lions beat the Hawks at that venue for the first time since 2004 (they've played there five times), or will Mitchell's men continue one of the most unlikely streaks in the competition against a team that has not missed finals in that span?