HAWTHORN replacing Alastair Clarkson with Sam Mitchell is the AFL exception, not the rule.
Choosing to exit a proven coach for an untried one is the greatest risk a club can take.
Sydney did just that after last year's Grand Final, reaching a mutual arrangement with John Longmire that saw Dean Cox replace him. West Coast moved on Adam Simpson for Andrew McQualter.
Port Adelaide has committed to the same scenario at the end of 2025, with Ken Hinkley agreeing to be phased out for Josh Carr. And the Western Bulldogs are yet to commit beyond this current 11th season of their union with premiership coach Luke Beveridge.
The great Mick Malthouse, referencing his own experiences and witnessing dozens of others in a grand coaching career spanning 30 seasons, has always maintained that assistant coaches believed they were ready for the big time. But that there was simply no way of them knowing until they experienced it.
Cox and McQualter had what were widely regarded as the perfect senior coaching resumes before landing their respective jobs, and both are now seven games into the new roles. Both will benefit from being employed by powerful, well-run clubs, but the stresses are already apparent. McQualter is yet to win a game. Cox has a 2-5 record and last Saturday saw his Swans concede 12 consecutive goals to Gold Coast.
Also last Saturday, Hinkley calmly defused the highly volatile Jason Horne-Francis as he was about to enter full meltdown mode against North Melbourne. In retrieving that moment, and in winning that match, Hinkley secured a third straight victory.
Of course, Josh Carr may be capable of dealing with an enraged Horne-Francis when he almost inevitably explodes again next year.
And of course, Longmire may also not have been able to produce a better scoreline than 2-5 this year, and Simpson, like McQualter, may also have been winless to this point of 2025.
But we know Hinkley is equipped to manage volatility and make high-end finals, and we know Longmire, while losing four Grand Finals in his time at Sydney, incredibly reached five Grand Finals in 14 seasons, and only missed finals twice.
And as dreadful as the Eagles were for 2022-24, Simpson won and lost a Grand Final in his time at the club.
North Melbourne hasn't recovered from the decision it made in mid-2019 to exit the proven Brad Scott. A decision to part with his replacement, Rhyce Shaw, was made before the completion of Shaw's first season, and then David Noble was moved on after a season and a half.
Essendon hasn't gone near success since the Kevin Sheedy era ended in 2007.
The Bulldogs situation with Beveridge is becomingly increasingly intriguing as the season unfolds. After spending 10 seasons of not caring for his public perception, Beveridge has embarked upon a Sheedy-style embrace of certain arms of media in an attempt to warm his own image.
Most importantly, he is coaching as well as at any stage of his 11 seasons, which has already seen two Grand Finals, taking the Bulldogs to a 4-3 scoreline amid his own uncertainty, a raft of injuries to gun players and a breakdown of the relationship with key forward Jamarra Ugle-Hagan.
Bulldogs director Luke Darcy was the person who found and ultimately appointed Beveridge as coach of a then-banged up Bulldogs at the end of 2014, and he will not want to lose his man at the end of 2025.
History tells AFL clubs they need to beware the unknown, that one of the oldest of old-school philosophies is as pertinent to today's competition as ever: when you've got a good coach, make sure you realise it.
As Malthouse explained this week to AFL.com.au: "You may be the greatest assistant coach in the world, but as an assistant coach, you're only ever sitting in the passenger seat. The senior coach is in the driver's seat. The assistant coach is not at the steering wheel, not in control of the accelerator, the clutch, the brake, the wheel. And the view through the windscreen is different to that of the driver.
"It's a totally different ball game when you get that seat. Some take to it very well. Others find it very stressful and can't cope. And you just never know how you're going to go until you do it."
