AFL.com.au's Callum Twomey takes a look at how the Pies are surging towards the top six, a Roo's big call and more in Cal-culations

WHY IT IS TIME FOR A GIANT CALL

THE TIME has come for Greater Western Sydney to take the step it has never had to before.

For the first time in the Giants' history, the juncture to aggressively pare back their list, enter a short regeneration and step backwards to go forwards is upon them. 

Whether they go down that path remains to be seen, but it is clear that although they have enjoyed excellent wins over the best teams this year, their up-and-down, topsy-turvy campaign is evidence of a side that can sometimes do it but not consistently. And that will always have a team hanging around the middle rungs of the ladder without truly challenging. 

Saturday's thumping at the hands of the Swans made it even clearer that the time is now for the Giants to make serious list change. The defeat has them in 11th place on the ladder with four rounds remaining and although they would be a dangerous team to face in a wildcard clash, dangerous doesn't equate to serious flag threat in 2026. 

As AFL.com.au revealed last week, tough contract calls are coming for Jesse Hogan and Jake Stringer. Both are out of contract and the Giants have prioritised signing youngster Max Gruzewski (and Jake Riccardi) over Hogan, with the former Dee and Docker on the lookout for a fourth club and considered unlikely to be at the Giants next year. 

Contract talks have been put on hold until the end of the season for Hogan, with the same for Stringer, who has interest in moving to a fourth club, with cross-town rival Sydney in his view. That Swans destination looks unlikely at this stage. 

Captain and club legend Toby Greene has been far from committal about staying at the Giants despite having a three-year offer on the table, with Geelong strongly circling him as an unrestricted free agent, while ruckman Kieren Briggs has received some rival interest as the Giants clearly prioritised Nick Madden's contract call. 

Stephen Coniglio wants to play on next year and kicked three goals in Saturday's defeat to the Swans but that's also going to be an end-of-year decision. 

Since making their first finals series in 2016, the Giants have only missed September action twice (in 2020 and 2022). In both years following their finals absences, they made at least the semi-final the following season. 

The club has successfully committed to regular contention and their western Sydney market is hard enough to win over as a contending team let alone a rebuilding one. 

But the Giants pick well and have a core of players 27 and under that includes Finn Callaghan, Sam Taylor, Brent Daniels, Connor Idun, Aaron Cadman, Tom Green and Lachie Ash, and youngsters such as Darcy Jones, Phoenix Gothard, Harvey Thomas and Joe Fonti. 

The club has put mega offers to Green and Ash as pre-agents, with Tasmania circling Green as a free agent next year. Though he might not sign the seven-year 'lifer' deal the Giants have presented, a shorter-term two-year extension is expected to be considered in the off-season to get him to unrestricted free agency. 

Getting in extra draft capital in this draft, before three years of a compromised pool courtesy of Tasmania, will be a challenge as clubs prepare for the Devils' draft destruction. Would a club on the cusp consider a trade for Lachie Whitfield with one year to run on his deal? 

The Giants have brought in experienced players to keep attacking the summit and it has been worth the crack. But as Melbourne has shown, some deep cuts combined with strong drafting on the run can quickly change the complexion and direction of a group. 

The Giants, who are a new-look organisation off the field with a new president and chief executive, should take the plunge without fear, knowing it might actually get them closer than staying in the ladder's middle class.

THE MAGPIES' ACE POWERING TOP-SIX TILT

WHEN Nick Daicos told AFL.com.au earlier month he believed Collingwood could win the flag this year, it probably surprised many. 

But Daicos' belief was as much about the team as the self-belief he clearly has in being able to impact results and his confidence should be sky high right now as Collingwood surges towards a top-six tilt. 

Remarkably, for a career that has been brilliant from his first game, the Magpies jet is in career-best form. His Player Ratings over the past seven weeks show that, with Daicos rated the best player in five of his past seven games and the other two coming in at second and third. Across that window, which has registered Collingwood six wins and one loss, he has averaged 35 disposals a game. 

The watch will be on Geelong tagger Oisin Mullin this week whether he goes against Daicos, but if he is sent that way he better be prepared to run.

The Magpies matchwinner might be footy's fittest player. He plays 86.6 per cent game time – the most of any midfielder according to Champion Data, with the next most being Noah Anderson at 85.1 per cent – and in the past two back-to-back wins over Carlton and Adelaide, Daicos played 100 per cent game time in the final quarter.

Whilst others require the set rotation, Daicos not only saves one for another but steps up when the game is up for grabs. 

Discussion on his kicking efficiency earlier this year might have also caught his eye. His disposal efficiency average over the past seven weeks hasn't dropped below 74 per cent, while his kicking efficiency in that period has lifted to 68.1 per cent. 

Champion Data also rates him as the seventh best kick in his position under the kick rating measure, which quantifies the expected value of each kick rather than its frequency. Over the past four weeks, Daicos ranks as the second best kick in the game under kick rating analysis. 

He's also the most aggressive kick in the game. The numbers show he has had the most 45-degree kicks inboard than any player, usually directed into the corridor and viewed as the riskiest kick as the Pies' chief protagonist. 

Daicos will surely poll another 10 votes in the AFL Coaches Association's player of the year award this week, which would take him to 125 votes for the season and past Dustin Martin's record 122-vote campaign in 2017. 

With Pies coach Craig McRae in excellent form himself, and a number of new faces showing up and doing their bit, nobody wants to play Collingwood – and Nick Daicos in this type of form.  

SUPERSTAR SAINT'S BIG DAY OUT

THE GAP between St Kilda and North Melbourne was only three letters long: NWM.

But those three letters are of growing value as a matchwinner, with Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera fast becoming a 'What do you do with him?' type of equation each week.

North turned to Finn O'Sullivan to take on the thankless tagging task in this game, with Wanganeen-Milera turning on a special afternoon that saw him kick four goals from 46 disposals as well as take more than 1km in metres gained (1062 in total).

It is hard to think anyone would have been able to stop Wanganeen-Milera in this type of mood. He is reaching the type of Nick Daicos levels of destructive one-man performances that are the difference in matches. Put him in North colours on Sunday and the result would have flipped, such was the incredible level of his performance.

On July 27 last year it was Wanganeen-Milera's memorable match-winning final term against Melbourne under the roof at Marvel Stadium. Twelve months later (minus a day) and the Saints superstar produced a just as brilliant showing.

This time he surely gets the three Brownlow Medal votes.

FINN'S IN

IT WAS a tough day for O'Sullivan on Sunday, but his decision to ever so nonchalantly knock back a deal of $15 million from Tasmania to stay at North Melbourne said a few things. 

For one, it showed exactly why the Devils had identified him as a perfect target to spend their salary spoils on. They want to chase the right characters, not just players, and the reason O'Sullivan was loyal to the Roos was the same reason Tassie wanted him.

But as AFL.com.au revealed last week in detailing the Devils' interest and O'Sullivan's call to stick with the Roos, he was the right type of candidate for those mega deals. 

More will be coming from the Devils – there remains the same figures up for grabs for his mate Sam Lalor at Richmond – and they should carry on throwing contract bombs at this age demographic. If they miss, who cares? Keep them coming. Eventually the inflation will also cause a cap spillover at a club that forces another gun out and into Tassie's reach. 

As Ken Hinkley said last week in his first day as a Devil, there will be knockbacks, but that should not daunt Tasmania from continuing to table the biggest offers the game has seen. Heads will be turned at some point.

And the job got easier having Hinkley able to sit in front of players and sell the dream with a coach who does the dance as well as any when in the room. 

As for O'Sullivan, North knew his commitment to the team when the Roos drafted him at pick No.2 two years ago and he hasn't let them down. 

TIGERS' WOODEN SPOON DECIDER

RICHMOND'S five wins in its past 36 games have come against only two opponents: Essendon and West Coast. 

It has been grim reading – and watching – for the Tigers, who were again well beaten on Saturday night by the Western Bulldogs. 

Next week's clash with the Eagles will likely decide this year's wooden spoon. If the Tigers win the contest at the MCG, then it's hard to see the Bombers claiming another win in their final four games to jump past them. But if Richmond can't beat West Coast at home, then Essendon's slight percentage buffer might keep it in 17th place. 

There is no Harley Reid-like standout at the top of this year's draft where the difference between pick No.1 and 2 looks significant, but Essendon's bid for a strong assistance package would be a far harder sell if the Bombers are not bottom of the ladder. 

While this week shapes as the Tigers' last chance for a win in 2026, the Eagles must go into the game expecting to win after a run of seven defeats. That has included some competitive performances against a varying group of opponents, but getting to a fifth win after only one last season would show more progress in Andrew McQualter's second season. 

Richmond president John O'Rourke told AFL.com.au in June that extending Adem Yze's deal to the end of 2028 was recognition of the club's rebuild plans but also a commitment to seeing progress next season. 

The challenge for the Tigers remains that while their youth will get there, and already Sam Cumming and Sam Grlj are big ticks from last year's draft, there remains reliance on their senior core players in key posts. The club's injury run over the past two years has made assessing their build a difficult task. 

AND ANOTHER THING…

JAGGA Smith – you are this year's Telstra AFL Rising Star. 

Smith was the popular tip for the award heading into the season and has duly delivered, with his form in the second half of this season a big part of Carlton's resurgence. 

Smith had 31 disposals and six clearances against Gold Coast and after missing last year with a knee reconstruction, the ball-winner hasn't lost any of his fast feet or sideways movement around a contest.

West Coast prodigy Willem Duursma has been exciting and brilliant, while Blues teammate Harry Dean has had an excellent season as a tall defender. But Smith is the man to be only the second Blue to claim the Rising Star, following Sam Walsh in 2019.