WHEN the AFL and AFL Players Association finally shook hands at the end of 2023 on the most recent pay deal, which injected millions more dollars in clubs' salary caps, the view was that it would trigger an avalanche of big-name moves.
In a traditionally loyal competition, the extra dollars in list managers' hands would be able to overpay for a star and drag them out of their clubs on eye-watering deals. Or so was expected.
Chad Warner's decision to sign a new two-year deal with Sydney – confirmed this week after settling on his call in March – was the latest example, however, of how the new salary cap model has in fact helped clubs keep their guns instead of ripping them out of rivals.
There used to be a significant gap between the 'stay' money and the 'go' money. Leave and you shall receive. Players and agents knew they could test the market and boost their wallets, but realised staying where they were would come at a cost.
There are still sizeable gaps between some offers, such as the decision facing Tom De Koning, where Carlton's offer of around $1.1 million over seven years is dwarfed by St Kilda's $1.7 million a season offering.
But in the most part, the difference hasn't been enough to shift the very best players because their owner clubs are using their cash reserves to retain them. They stay money has become the pay money – in most cases, clubs have used the extra salary cap room to simply get closer to the 'go' money and make the difference seem not worth the jump.
St Kilda met with Luke Davies-Uniacke and had keen interest, but North Melbourne's deal of more than $1.3 million a season over seven years was the biggest deal in Kangaroos history and kept him at Arden Street. Tick.
The Saints also had eyes on Finn Callaghan but his four-year deal at the Giants is worth more than $1.1 million a season and rising. West Coast and Fremantle were chasing Warner and tabled long-term offers, but Sydney's deal of two years at more than $1.35 million a season made him one of footy's handful of best-paid players for 2026-27.
West Coast would have been willing to top it in dollars per season, but significantly enough for him see the benefit of the gap? Fremantle's offer might not have even reached that number, given the starry top-end on the Dockers' list.
Everyone wants a piece of Harley Reid but the Eagles' offers to keep him, revealed by AFL.com.au this month, are extremely strong and worth between $1.6-1.8 million over the three and five-year offers and on the cusp of $2 million a season for the longer-term deal. In fact, the long-term offer, should Reid sign it, would be an AFL record contract. The chasing pack may put forward even bigger deals, but Reid won't be losing out either way.
There will always be players, particularly free agents, who find a party willing to go well above what their owner club is offering to get a bigger deal, which was seen last year in the chase for unrestricted free agents Harry Perryman and Isaac Cumming.
But there were 25 million-dollar players in 2024 and that number will rise into the mid-30s for this season. The majority of those were hand-picked draftees from their own clubs who stayed and tasted the riches without changing clubs.
The language is swiftly changing on what the best-paid players are worth and St Kilda's level of interest in De Koning, like West Coast's offer to Reid, will be more commonplace soon. Only three years ago, Collingwood spent $3 million on a five-year deal for Dan McStay that was widely questioned as being too much money. Now that type of annual rate wouldn't be blinked at.
The test on loyalty will come in two more years, when a new Collective Bargaining Agreement is due at the end of 2027 and Tasmania's entrance into the competition is slated and sure to inflate salaries again. But the dilemma of 'earn versus yearn' is no longer as stark as clubs dip into their pockets deeper than ever before for their own.
