A RED-HOT weekend packed with nail-biters might be a tough act to follow but the 10th anniversary of Sir Doug Nicholls Round brings more blockbusters along with a celebration of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander players and cultures.
Gold Coast and Hawthorn launch round 10 with a mouth-watering top-four clash in Darwin on Thursday night, before Sydney and Carlton meet in the annual Marn Grook match with both sides hoping to stay in touch with the top eight.
Little has separated Collingwood and Kuwarna in their past four contests even as the Crows have all but forgotten how to beat the Pies, while North Melbourne will be out to win at the MCG for the first time since 2017 when it faces Richmond in a high-stakes game on Sunday.
Here is who and what to look out for across round 10, as well as a tip for each match.
Gold Coast v Hawthorn, TIO Stadium
Thursday, May 15, 7pm ACST
Last time: Gold Coast 16.13 (109) d Hawthorn 8.8 (56), R5 2024
What it means
Gold Coast (6-2) got the big scalp it needed to stamp its credentials when it held off Western Bulldogs and now has an opportunity to double down in another top-four battle with Hawthorn. The Suns can relish stepping onto the main stage of a prime-time slot while taking on the Hawks at their home away from home in Darwin where they have won their past seven matches.
Hawthorn (7-2) has bounced back from consecutive defeats to do what it has needed to in wins against three of the bottom four sides. The Hawks will now face a tougher test against the in-form Suns while playing in the typically steamy conditions in Darwin for just the second time after an unsuccessful visit to the venue three years ago.
Game shapers
Touk Miller has been forced to bide his time until being part of a successful Gold Coast outfit but is finally on track for a first finals campaign as he reaches 200 games. The former Suns co-captain continues to lead the way while spending much of his time wrestling with opponents at stoppages but is also having an impact in the forward half for the competition’s heaviest scorers.
Massimo D'Ambrosio has become one of the great bargain basement trades of recent times while making a wing his own at Hawthorn after 16 matches with arch-rivals Essendon. The 21-year-old is now pushing forward more as he uses his pinpoint kicking to set up Hawks teammates for shots on goal ahead of reaching 50 games across the two clubs.
Early tip: Gold Coast by 11 points
Sydney v Carlton, SCG
Friday, May 16, 7.40pm AEST
Last time: Sydney 17.15 (117) d Carlton 9.11 (65), R10 2024
What it means
Sydney (3-6) already has its work cut out to avoid becoming the seventh side in the past three decades to follow a Grand Final humiliation by missing the finals the following season. The Swans have dropped from being the highest scorers last year to now be ranked 14th and must make the most of three of their next four matches being against sides outside the top eight to turn their season around
Carlton (4-5) has got its season back on track with four wins from the past five matches and now has an opportunity to move within reach of the top eight against the under-fire Sydney. But the Blues will first need to smash their three-decades long hoodoo at the SCG after losing 16 of 18 matches against the Swans at the venue in that time by an average 43 points.
Game shapers
Brodie Grundy bounced back after a pair of quieter games as he gathered 23 disposals and seven clearances to help Sydney surge late against Essendon. The 31-year-old might be past consistently producing the sort of influential performances that earned him All-Australian blazers in 2018 and 2019 but will relish the opportunity to try to knock rising ruck Tom De Koning down a peg or two.
Charlie Curnow took time to get going this year with a rare goalless outing to start the season but it is no coincidence that he hit his straps at the same time as Carlton turned its form around. The dual Coleman medallist has 18 goals from the past seven matches but is likely due a big haul especially with fellow key forward Harry McKay getting more games under his belt to make them a twin threat.
Early tip: Sydney by eight points
Collingwood v Kuwarna, MCG
Saturday, May 17, 1.20pm AEST
Last time: Collingwood 12.6 (78) d Kuwarna 11.8 (74), R10 2024
What it means
Collingwood (7-2) again proved that it is as comfortable on the road as when playing at home as the rousing victory over Walyalup with an understrength side made it three wins from four away matches this year. The Magpies now play their next seven in Melbourne beginning with a clash against a Crows outfit that it has beaten in their past nine matches.
Kuwarna (6-3) continued its push for a top-four spot when holding off Yartapuulti and now has a chance to prove its credentials against the high-flying Collingwood. The Crows broke a seven-year drought at the MCG on their most recent visit and could now tick another box against a side that they have not beaten since 2016 though the past four defeats have been by an average three points.
Game shapers
Jamie Elliott has shown across more than 13 seasons with Collingwood that he is more than just a human highlight reel but as his body allows him to get on the field more, he might just be putting together his finest season. The 32-year-old has booted 22 goals at a career-high average of 2.4 a game helped by a bag of six last week that lifted him to within 17 majors of his highest season haul.
Riley Thilthorpe has built a frame that gives him arguably the most imposing presence in the game and allows the 201cm forward to outmuscle opponents as the spearhead of the Kuwarna attack. The 22-year-old used his powers for the Crows’ good in their tense Showdown victory with five contested marks on the way to booting three goals to already have a career-high 23 majors for the year.
Early tip: Collingwood by four points
Yartapuulti v Geelong, Adelaide Oval
Saturday, May 17, 3.45pm ACST
Last time: Geelong 20.18 (138) d Yartapuulti 7.12 (54), FW1 2024
What it means
Yartapuulti (4-5) bounced back from a humiliating defeat in Ballarat to make a late surge and give Kuwarna a scare before falling agonisingly short in the Showdown. The Power need to put another horror show aside after a crushing loss to the Cats in a qualifying final last year while proving they can bring more consistency to their game rather than riding an emotional rollercoaster each week.
Geelong (5-4) could not quite get over the line against its nemesis Greater Western Sydney as a string of missed opportunities during a late charge left it less than a goal short of victory. The Cats might be buoyed by pushing the Giants so close with an undermanned defence but must address the emerging concern of dropping three games this year by fewer than 10 points.
Game shapers
Connor Rozee is brushing off concerns over his ability to handle a tag as rises to the top of the coaches’ award little more than a month after being asked to spend more time playing at half-back. The Power skipper is averaging 28.6 disposals while still booting five goals in as many matches since making the move back where he is able to launch his side’s attacks.
Mark Blicavs has filled basically every role on a football field but a sliced set shot in the dying stages against the Giants meant the versatile big man was not quite able to add ‘match-winner’ to his resume. The 34-year-old helped the Cats stay in the game while he had 20 disposals and nine clearances as he puts together another impactful season despite an ill-timed poster.
Early tip: Geelong by 17 points
Greater Western Sydney v Walyalup, Engie Stadium
Saturday, May 17, 4.15pm AEST
Last time: Greater Western Sydney 15.11 (101) d Walyalup 14.8 (92), R23 2024
What it means
Greater Western Sydney (5-4) got its season back on track after three consecutive defeats when conquering Geelong’s fortress for the fifth time in as many matches at the venue. The Giants now have an opportunity to build their own stronghold as they return to their Sydney home for just the third time this season for the first of four straight matches against sides currently sitting outside the top eight.
Walyalup (4-5) was left to rue dominating territory and most of the key statistics other than the most important one on the scoreboard as it was outclassed by an undermanned Collingwood at home. The Dockers must now seek to turn their season around at a venue where they have lost all four of their matches against the Giants by an average 46 points.
Game shapers
Jesse Hogan might be the reigning Coleman medallist but the Giants spearhead is arguably hitting career-best form now. The 30-year-old proved the difference as he booted seven goals against the Cats just a month after kicking nine against an inexperienced Eagles defence, and has 25 majors to sit just two behind the leading goalkicker Ben King despite playing only six matches this year.
Andrew Brayshaw bounced back from a rare quiet day to gather 34 disposals while the Dockers battled hard to give the Magpies a scare. But the 25-year-old had only nine kicks even as he racked up the possessions and arguably needs to do more damage with ball in hand if his side is to turn its form around.
Early tip: GWS by 26 points
Western Bulldogs v Essendon, Marvel Stadium
Saturday, May 17, 7.35pm AEST
Last time: Essendon 15.6 (96) d Western Bulldogs 9.13 (67), R5 2024
What it means
Western Bulldogs (5-4) lost few friends as it made a late charge against Gold Coast but the narrow defeat has still left it in the logjam of eight clubs on four to five wins. The Dogs must now be wary of how they bounce back after playing in steamy conditions in Darwin but should appreciate returning to home comforts after winning their past eight matches at the venue by an average 43 points.
Essendon (5-3) perhaps claimed the big scalp it needed when holding off Sydney though the reigning minor premiers are a shell of the side that they were last year. Either way, the Bombers are regularly beating the teams that are in front of them with four wins from their past five as they tighten up their defence to concede an average 73 points across that stretch and make a push for the top eight.
Game shapers
Zach Reid has been among the slowest of burns as a horror run with injuries stalled the early years of a highly-touted career. The 23-year-old managed only nine matches in his first four years with Essendon but has started this season playing eight games in a row and showing all the hallmarks of being one of the most promising key defenders in the game.
Tom Liberatore is quietly putting together a consistent and impactful season that has been as pivotal as any to the Bulldogs’ strong form this year. Even when on the cusp of turning 33, Liberatore is adding new threats to his game with chase down tackles as well as averaging career-highs for 15.6 uncontested disposals and 28.6 possessions a game.
Early tip: Western Bulldogs by 23 points
Richmond v North Melbourne, MCG
Sunday, May 18, 1.10pm AEST
Last time: North Melbourne 14.6 (90) d Richmond 10.17 (77), R21 2024
What it means
Richmond (3-6) continues to defy expectations as it moves to three wins for the season with more than half of the campaign still to come even if it needed a last-gasp tackle to hold off Waalitj Marawar last week. The Tigers could now open up a healthy gap on the Kangaroos on the ladder while having the added incentive of keeping the first-round draft pick they have traded for come even earlier.
North Melbourne (1-1-7) has a gilt-edge opportunity to prove that it is finally trending in the right direction after a gut-wrenching draw with Brisbane followed two narrow defeats. The Kangaroos still need to show that they know how to win and will carry extra motivation into this contest after a contentious decision to trade away their first-round draft pick later this year to the Tigers.
Game shapers
Kamdyn McIntosh is firmly among the elder statesmen at Richmond after a clear out over the past couple of seasons but is offering more than just valuable support for the next generation as he reaches 200 games. The 31-year-old uses his large frame to be a defensively-minded midfielder and presence in the engine room while still able to do damage in open spaces.
Tristan Xerri is making a strong claim to be the leading ruck in the game as a powerful performance against Brisbane lifted the North Melbourne big man to second place in the coaches’ award. The 202cm Xerri ranks fourth in the competition for average clearances in a category dominated by robust midfielders as his stoppage work in the air and on the ground becomes a weapon for the Kangaroos.
Early tip: North Melbourne by 19 points
Brisbane v Narrm, the Gabba
Sunday, May 18, 3.20pm AEST
Last time: Brisbane 11.20 (86) d Narrm 11.15 (81), R16 2024
What it means
Brisbane (7-1-1) will consider the draw with North Melbourne as two points dropped in the aftermath of the thriller but could be relieved to perhaps have taken its relatively poor percentage out of calculations. The Lions cannot afford any more slip ups if they want to hold onto top spot especially with five games to come against the next eight sides on the ladder before their bye.
Narrm (3-6) backed up its three consecutive victories by giving Hawthorn a huge scare for three quarters before losing touch with the top-four hopefuls when it put the foot down in the final term. The Demons can take positives from challenging a premiership contender but could now take another step forward in proving they can compete with the best as they come up against the reigning premiers.
Game shapers
Cameron Rayner is often the icing on the Brisbane cake as a versatile forward who is just as capable of booting a bag as tearing a game apart during a brief burst in the midfield. The former No.1 pick did more of the former last week as his reliable set shots and three goals helped the Lions at least claim a draw against the Kangaroos ahead of the 25-year-old playing his 150th match.
Harvey Langford has barely put a foot wrong since joining Narrm as No.6 pick last year and gathering 26 disposals with six clearances and a goal in his first start in round three. The 19-year-old has since grasped a spot in the Demons’ onball brigade but showed that he is also a powerful presence closer to goal with three goals alongside 22 touches against the Hawks last week.
Early tip: Brisbane by 37 points
Waalitj Marawar v Euro-Yroke, Optus Stadium
Sunday, May 18, 2.40pm AWST
Last time: Euro-Yroke 17.11 (113) d Waalitj Marawar 6.5 (41), R19 2024
What it means
Waalitj Marawar (0-9) has come painstakingly close to snatching a breakthrough win twice in the past month as it shows signs of improvement without quite sealing the deal. The Eagles’ form has been indifferent whether playing at home and away but they have an opportunity to find that elusive victory in front of their own fans against the stuttering Saints.
Euro-Yroke (4-5) is at risk of losing touch with the top eight after dropping four of its past five matches but has a reasonable run before its bye that could define its season beginning with bottom-placed Waalitj Marawar. The Saints are comfortable travelling to Perth where they have won on their past four visits including the last three against the Eagles.
Game shapers
Reuben Ginbey has been one of the shining lights in Waalitj Marawar’s stuttering rebuild since joining the club as a top 10 pick at the end of 2022. The 20-year-old is now leading a young pack taking the reins at the Eagles after settling into a spot in defence where his fearless attack of the ball and rebound are becoming a trademark heading into a 50th match.
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera continues to stake his claim for a maiden All-Australian blazer as he becomes of the most damaging half-backs in the game. The 22-year-old is a key to the way that the Saints play as his game sense and sublime skills has teammates looking to get the ball in his hands at any opportunity while he averages 27.7 disposals and 5.6 rebounds a match.
Early tip: Euro-Yroke by 21 points
